HKIND Frenzy Will the Hang Seng rise from the ashes?The impact of several Chinese economic indicators has pushed the Hang Seng index higher, albeit with mixed results: while retail sales, industrial production and foreign investment data beat expectations causing the index to correct higher, the unemployment rate showed a slight increase of 0.1% from the previous one. The anticipation of this week's meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are crucial to define the trend in China and the region as a whole. However, corporate conflicts such as those related to TikTok and Fisker's bankruptcy on the NYSE have weighed down the index, leading it to a significant drop losing 3.84% from its price of 17194.50 to 16534.06 points. Despite this, the electric vehicles and batteries sector which weights very heavily on the Hong Kong index has shown some resilience, contributing to a slight rebound of the index by 0.4% in the current session.
In terms of technical analysis, the chart reveals a bearish construction trend since last year due to multiple economic scandals in China, highlighting the real estate and banking scandals. However, since January, the price has shown signs of recovery recovering quotes from December 2023. This could mark an index that is more undervalued than it really should be and a perceived depreciation in excess of the real value of the companies that make up the index. The RSI currently stands at 49.38%, indicating a possible reversal to the upside. The price bell signals a checkpoint at 19437.89 points, suggesting a possible return to that zone in the long term. A Chinese economy that has shown 5% growth versus the US economy that only grew by 2.4% in an environment of slowing consumption, for a country heavily dependent on exports, is growing at these rates due to its high domestic demand.
If we stick to the short term analysis, a wedge analysis suggests a top at 17187.53 points, with a short term target that could take the index to the price zone of the previous range around 18393.53 points. However, if this pattern is not confirmed and the index continues its downtrend after reaching 17187 points, the support level would be looking for its support zone at 14693 points.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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HK50 trade ideas
HSI Short: Alternate Bearish CountMy last analysis for HSI was a bullish call. Since then, the move for Hang Seng up move hasn't been that clean and I thought that it is time for me to publish the bearish alternate count.
As should be clear, I have termed the up move as a triangle, and thus expecting a move down at least to the low made on 22nd Jan.
Note: I have linked my bullish breakout analysis here.
Weekly Analysis - HK 50Last week, HK50 finally tapped 17100 level but it retracts back to 16700 level to close the week. This week, based on the 1 hour and 4 hour time frame structure, it looks like we are starting to form a bearish structure with a lower high and lower low. I will need more confirmation that we are heading back down, thus my sell level remains at 16369. Once that level breaks, we will go straight to 15900 level.
For buy, it might be tough to enter buy as there is no sight of higher high and higher low just yet. I will wait for the 1 hour candle to start closing above 16880 level before considering a buy position
Buy or Sell - HK50As discussed yesterday, the previous daily close right at resistance level of 17101, after a top wick, it ended up close back into the range below 16800. For today analysis, I am skeptical about the continuation of bearish candle. The reason being is because, if looking back at the last time, January 2, when it closed at 17101 and rip back down, the previous couple days leading up to it were not as bullish compare to this bull run. Second of all, although the daily did close below 16800 level, it was not as strong bearish candle closure compare to Jan 2 this year.
Thus, I will only consider a sell at 16369 which is also the weekly candle flip. As for buy, once it the 1 hour candle close back above 16972, I will consider entering a buy, eyeing TP of at least 17101.
HK50 - Trade with cautious Yesterday, Unfortunately, it did not drive up as much as I expected to be. The daily actually close right at resistance level of 17106. Overall, I am still bullish for the week, eyeing at least 17400 level.
Trade idea for today, the reason I mentioned to trade with cautious is because it closes right at resistance level. There is a possibility of a gap open to the down side before it drives back up. Thus, I will wait for at least the first hour candle to close above that level before entering the buy
Hang Seng Index: About to bottom; large up move coming in wave 3Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend for last 4-5 years. The index bottomed in Oct 2022 when China uplifted the COVID restrictions. It has been correcting the first swing since last one year. The index is approaching a critical Fibonacci level where the wave 2 should end. The level has high correlation with the multi-year trendline as well.
Make or break day - HK50For those that watched my analysis the past couple days, Congratulation! It was a pretty easy set up for a buy once the candle close above 16843. For today, we are finally back to the initial level I mentioned awhile ago.
Whether if HK50 can break and hold above 17100? If it does, then we can sort of say we have now break the bearish trend and can look for more bullish sign toward 18000 level.
Today trade idea: 2 ways to look for buy. If the first 15 mins candle first open with a gap to the downside then flip bullish, we can look for buy until 17430. If it opens right away with a bullish candle, I will wait for the first hour candle to close first, once it forms a bottom wick, I will enter a buy when it breaks the previous 1 hour high.
For sell, it might be little bit tough at the moment, as the candle can easily reject at any moment. Thus, I will be cautious for the sell until I can see confirmation of closing below resistance level
A significant bottom has formedAn inverse head and shoulder has formed and a break above the previous pivot will be the first confirmation that the Hong kong index has bottomed
HK50 possibly break out the range?Yesterday HK50 started off with some ranging candles but finally able to break above toward the end of the session. Today, depends how the first 15 mins candle open, I can see a continuation toward the upside as long as it can close above 16843.
For sell, since it is starting to form a bullish trend from a 4 hour time frame, I will only consider sell once it forms a lower high and lower low toward the 16379 level.
Weekly HK50 AnalysisHK50 is still ranging between 16843 and 16127 with no clear direction. The past couple days, it closed bearish but respecting 16127.
For this week trade idea, I still stick with my last week analysis. For buy, I will consider when the daily starts to close above 16843. Tp can be up to 17565.
For sell, once the daily starts to close below 16127-16000, I will look for sell, Tp can be 15720.
🌟📈 Exciting Trading Insights for HK50! 💼💹Get ready for some thrilling opportunities as we dive into the market dynamics of HK50! Let's explore the charts, analyze the trends, and uncover potential pathways for profitable trades. 🚀💰
📈 Higher Timeframe Trend:
Zooming out to the higher timeframes (H4 or above), we observe a clear trend in HK50. This sets the stage for exciting possibilities and potential gains. Let's ride the trend! 📈📊
🔍🔄 Double Bottom Formation:
In the H1 chart, we anticipate HK50 to form a double bottom pattern, as indicated. This pattern suggests a potential trend reversal and can provide excellent entry opportunities. Keep a close watch! 👀🔄
⚡️💼 Supply Zone at 16330:
Our analysis reveals a small but significant Supply Zone at 16330. Today's breakdown of this level serves as a Launchpad for potential upward movement. Brace yourself for a bullish breakthrough! 🚀💼
🔮📉📈 Forecast Path:
Let's map out the potential path for HK50's future movements:
1️⃣ Hit Supply Zone 16330:
The first step is for HK50 to reach the Supply Zone at 16330. This level acts as a crucial milestone to watch out for. Prepare for potential price reactions and exciting trading opportunities! 🎯📉
2️⃣ Retest and Lower Low Formation:
Following the initial hit, we anticipate a retest above 16150, accompanied by the formation of a lower low. This scenario may exhibit indicators such as MACD divergence, providing insightful signals for traders. Stay sharp! 🔄📉
3️⃣ Fast Move to 16480:
Our forecast suggests a rapid upward move to 16480, potentially occurring on Friday afternoon or next Monday. This surge presents an excellent chance to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Get ready for action! ⚡️📈💪
Embrace the excitement, stay informed, and adapt to the evolving market conditions. Remember, thorough analysis and risk management are key to successful trading. Let's make the most of HK50's potential and aim for profitable trades! 💪💼💹
#HK50 #TradingInsights #DoubleBottomFormation #SupplyZone #ForecastPath 🌍💱
HK50 RangingSo far, HK50 has formed a range in between 16843 and 16127. Overall there is still no clear direction as to whether if we will break out those range as yesterday we close right in the middle of the range.
For trading idea, I still stand with my initial analysis. Sell only if the 1 hour candle close below the strong support level of 16127. For buy, proceed when candle close above 16843. There is plenty of range to trade from once the market starts to close above or below these level. There is no point to force an entry as you might end up stuck in this 800 points range for few days.
HangSeng $HSI bottomedHSI bottomed in January after hitting Fibonacci 1:1 in the last corrective leg. Since then, it has made a higher low forming inverse head and shoulder. Today it formed an impulsive run and closed above yesterday's high. Another confirmation that a bottom may have formed.
Continue bearish for HK50Yesterday HK 50 close off with a pretty nice bearish candle. Going back to my initial analysis, despite the past few weeks in a roll of bullish candle, as long as HK50 doesn't break any of the key resistance level, this could just a double top back to the downside.
For Sell, as long as the hourly candle starting to close below 16000, we can look for a sell back down to 15400 level.
For buy, I will only consider once it close above 16429.
HK50 Weekly AnalysisStarting from the weekly candle, last Friday first spike down, touched 16127 then reverse back up 300 points. Overall, it's been 2 weeks in a roll it closes firmly above 16000 level. For this week target, as long as HK50 can start to firmly clove above 16800, we can start to eye for that ultimate resistance of 17100. I still believe that 17100 is a make or break level in terms of whether if we can start reversing the bearish trend or just a double top back to the down side. I will update this analysis once I see a more clear signal.
For buy, I will be considering as long as the first 1 hour candle can close above 16843. The TP can be somewhere at 17101
For sell, as long as the candle starting to close below 16422, I can start to look for sell back down to 16127
Buy or Sell - HK50?Yesterday the market close with a bearish candle. If you focus on the top wick, it tapped exactly 16700 which is a crucial resistance level that HK50 just couldn't break above the past couple days. Thus, I am following thru my theory of a bearish trend until the market begins to find a solid support.
For trading ideas, depends on how the first 15 mins candle open, I will be looking for a sell to minimum of 16274. Depends on the volume, the overall target can be between 16127 to 16000.
For Buy, I will only look for a buy if it is starting to close firm above 16700.
HK50 head back down?After almost 3 days of ranging, it looks like HK50 is finally forming a direction. Historically, based on the last 8 years market day after the budget release, the market tends to close in a bearish candle. Based on the report, it doesn't seem like there is much positive news that can boost up the Hong Kong economy. Thus, fundamentally speaking, I am still Bearish for HK50.
Based on technically analysis, from the weekly to the daily candle, we are heading toward a bearish trend. Weekly formed a top wick and fail to break above 16700. As mentioned with my previous analysis, there are two crucial resistance level before we can start calling this an overall reversal trend, 16700 and 17100. Now than the daily candle also close back below 16500. With just 2 days left in the market, I would not be surprised if we head back down to 16000 level today.
One thing to note, in order for it to head back down, the market typically opens up with a gap to the upside before head back down. Thus, be careful, when market open and we started to see a really fast bullish candle, it could very well be the liquidity grab to the downside. However, if by the end of first 1 hour candle, market is closing a firm bullish candle, such as closing above 16500, we might be able to look for a buy position
Ranging day for HK50Yesterday is a pretty quiet Monday, with lower trade volume and no clear direction. I anticipate somewhat the same market condition today as well as I mentioned in my analysis yesterday. Wednesday will be an important day for the market as the Hong Kong government is releasing the budget for 2024-2025. This will dictate how the market direction will move.
Ideally, today will be one of those day to sit back on the side line and observe. Thus, there is no short term scalping idea at the moment. I will update with some idea once the market open and see if there is any potential to the upside or downside
Weekly HK50 analysisLast Friday, HK 50 close above 16700. However, it still hasn't close above the very key resistance 17000 level. The one I called make or break from last Friday analysis. The reason being is because, not only this will be the 2024 high, it will finally show the momentum of breaking the downtrend of lower high and lower low.
One very important thing to keep in mind while trading this week is Wednesday, the hong kong government will release their version of FOMC meeting minute. This will dictate how the market direction will go moving forward. If the tone is more dovish, we may finally start to see some momentum to 17500 by the end of the week. However, if it doesn't break above that key 17000 level, this could very well be a double top pattern and it will head back down to retest 16000 level.
Overall, I would stay out of the market for the time being, until after Wednesday for a better direction. However, if you really want a quick scalp of 100 points, depends how the market open, if it opens with a gap to the downside then starting to rip up after the first 15 mins candle, you can potentially look for a quick buy. Again, please be very cautious as this is just a Monday opening
Learning the Basics of Supply and DemandI feel its important for even the most advanced traders to take the time once in a while to re-assess the fundamentals. For newer traders trying to learn this is how I create models of supply and demand.
I look on the daily or H4 chart for areas of consolidation followed by an engulfing candle and draw a line, if price returns to that line and doesn't break through it, I make it thicker. If it touches more than 3 times I redraw as a rectangle zone.
Notice the 2 green lines. I drew the first when price action started to act bullish and push up against the trend.
What I've identified are simple areas where there was an auction and one side clearly won and the price moved to a lower or higher fair value area.
What to do with this information is to notice prices that attract buyers and sellers. Use these levels as targets to increase your probability of being positioned on the profitable side of a movement. The further you enter away from these extremum points, the more often you will end up in positions that may win, but will draw down significantly before doing so. Save yourself the stress and let price come to you at a zone where it has hard reversed in the past.
HSI Long: Breakout of channelHang Seng has broken out of channel that was almost 7 months in the making. This is a bullish. Coupled this with the end of EW counts and China crack down on malicious short-selling or selling of stocks and pledge to support the equity markets.
HK50 make or break dayToday is the last day of the week for HK 50. 17000 is a very strong resistance level. Looking at the daily and the weekly chart, looks like we are coming up to retest the 17000 range.
The reason why I think today is very crucial in terms of the overall trend for HK 50 because if today close above 17000, we can then say HK50 is breaking the current downtrend of lower high and lower low. However, if today market close back into the range of 16,500. That means the past couple days bullish candle is just simply forming a lower high. If that is the case, next week, most likely we will head back down to the 16000 range.
📈💰 A Day Trading Short setup Opportunity on HK50 💱🔥 Let's Dive into the Key Points! 🔥
Are you ready for an exciting day trading opportunity, Retracement on HK50? 🚀💹 Pay close attention to the following key points:
⬇️ Sell Limit Levels:
🎯 16732
🎯 16758
🎯 16785
📈 Take Profits:
TP1: 16680
TP2: 16648
🔑 Key Level - Resistance:
🛡️ 16710
❌ Stop Loss:
🛑 16785
💡 Trading Insights:
Today, we focus on HK50 and potential sell limit levels. Keep an eye on 16732, 16758, and 16785 as they present entry opportunities to capitalize on potential downward movements.
To secure profits, consider setting take profit levels at 16680 and 16648. These targets can help you lock in gains as the trade progresses.
Watch out for the key level of resistance at 16710, as it may act as a significant barrier to further upward movement.
Remember to manage your risk effectively by setting a stop loss at 16785. This will help protect your trading capital and limit potential losses.
Embrace the excitement of day trading and always stay vigilant in analyzing the market. Good luck! 💪💹📈
#HK50 #DayTradingOpportunity #SellLimit #TakeProfit #StopLoss 🌍💱
