NIKKEI 225Expecting massive crash on Japanese NIKKEI 225 in the long term view.
The crash we saw on August 2024 was just initial signs of aggressive selling that will happen.
It will likely form harmonics pattern in the process.
JP225 trade ideas
Japan has closed above key level Japanese equities are following their european peers and breaking out of key resistance level. Weekly chart has confirmed the move.
This could be the stat of at least a minor bull trend.
4-hr Japan 225: Japanese Stocks to Rise with 1500 pointsOver the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key technical level that historically acts as the final support before a correction turns into a full trend reversal.
Since yesterday, we’ve observed early signs of recovery, with the index bouncing 500 points from this crucial Fibonacci support. This price action suggests renewed buying interest, reinforcing our view that the market is poised for another upward move. Given this setup, we prefer to enter a buy trade, targeting a return to the recent highs above 40,500.
Furthermore, rising stock indices in the UK, EU, and USA support the broader hypothesis that global equities are rebounding, strengthening our bullish outlook on Japanese stocks.
YEN CARRY TRADEShort term trade -
Yen Carry trade will unwind again, causing a large drop. I expect it during the next week or two but we will see.
Jpn225 Update We see this market maybe filling the 4hr gap maybe not then e continue bearish momentum going down some more in upcoming days or next week.
Trade Recaps - JPN225 [L], UK100, USDCHF [L], GBPJPYRecapping all the trades I took from Wednesday to Friday.
Short Nikkei 1to 5 Risk/Reward Nikkei is in the area form where it pulled back 8 times. Waiting for number 9- risk 200 points reward 1,000 points.
Let's see how it plays out....
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Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull or Bear trade at any point after the breakout.
Buy entry above 39200.0
Sell Entry below 38200.0
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks.
Goal 🎯: Bullish Robbers TP 40300.0 (or) Escape Before the Target
Bearish Robbers TP 37400.0 (or) Escape Before the Target
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Current Fundamentals:
Japanese Economy: The Japanese economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, with a forecasted GDP growth rate of 1.2% for 2023.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, with a negative interest rate of -0.1% and a commitment to purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to keep the 10-year yield around 0%.
Inflation: Japan's inflation rate has been rising, but it remains below the BOJ's target of 2%. The current inflation rate is around 0.5%.
Trade Tensions: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have had a negative impact on the Japanese economy, particularly on the country's export-oriented industries.
Upcoming News:
BOJ Interest Rate Decision: The BOJ is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on March 18, 2023. The market expects the BOJ to maintain its current monetary policy stance.
Japanese GDP Growth: The Japanese government will release its GDP growth data for Q4 2022 on March 10, 2023. The market expects the economy to have grown at a moderate pace.
US-China Trade Talks: The US and China are scheduled to resume trade talks in March 2023. A positive outcome could boost the Japanese economy and the JP225.
Bullish Factors:
BOJ's Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy: The BOJ's commitment to maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy could continue to support the Japanese stock market.
Weakening Yen: A weakening yen could boost Japan's export-oriented industries and support the JP225.
Improving Corporate Earnings: Japanese companies have been reporting improving earnings, which could support the JP225.
Bearish Factors:
Global Economic Slowdown: A global economic slowdown could negatively impact the Japanese economy and the JP225.
Trade Tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China could negatively impact the Japanese economy and the JP225.
Rising Inflation: Rising inflation could lead to higher interest rates, which could negatively impact the Japanese stock market.
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Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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NIKKEI Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI is trading in an
Uptrend but the price has
Reached a horizontal resistance
Of 40,000 so despite our
Bullish bias we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
JP225 buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis 27 January 2025
- Nikkei 225 fall inside sideways price range
- Likely to fall to support level 38025.00
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed down from the strong resistance level 40285.00 (upper border of the tight sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving since October) standing close to the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 40285.00 stopped the previous minor wave c, which started earlier from the lower border of this price range 38025.00.
Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 38025.00 – from where the index is likely to correct up.
JPN225 SHORTAll timeframes are overbought and there are multiple tops
This is with the H4 trend
There is no short pattern but since its the start of the week there should be a lot of resistance
Stop loss of 100 pips
NIKKEI Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI is trading in an
Uptrend and the index
Is consolidating above the
Horizontal support level
Of 37,800 so we are bullish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a local move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
NIKKEI225 LONG FROM SUPPORT|
✅NIKKEI225 is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 37,630
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 39,000
LONG🚀
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Nikkei to find sellers at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
A higher correction is expected.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 39280 level.
We look to Sell at 39280 (stop at 39607)
Our profit targets will be 38345 and 37705
Resistance: 39660 / 40720 / 42155
Support: 37705 / 36330 / 34955
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Jpn225Demand
38000
Mqp
Higher low
Incoming bull yearly candle
Us30 correlations
Nasdaq correlations
Ger30 correlations
Nikkei 225 Short: Break and rejection from trendlineNikkei 225 was ranging in an ascending triangle which, by itself, is a bullish setup. However, the odds of this setup breaking up is not high (last I remember, it's about 66% but please don't quote me or ask me to verify).
Now we are focused on 2 facts:
1. It has broken down from the lower trendline, and
2. price was rejected at the broken trendline.
What this means is that the breakdown from the ascending triangle is real and not a fake breakout. And what this also means is that Nikkei is now in a downtrend. Likely we are going to see a crash coming.
Ready for a "C" wave ? I would label the rise of the Nikkei 225 since 2003 as a wave (B) of an expanded flat (ABC), in which the wave (B) consists of an expanded flat (W), an expanding triangle (X) and finally, a zigzag (Y).
I personally think there is sufficient wave count , or close to finish the zigzag (Y) pattern. The impending wave (C) does not bode well for the global financial market as well since Japan is the world's fourth largest economy.
Nikkei 225: When Will it Break Out of its Range?Chart Analysis:
The Japan 225 index remains within a clearly defined horizontal range, suggesting consolidation and indecision among market participants.
1️⃣ Key Resistance and Support Levels:
Resistance: The upper boundary near 40,236 serves as a key resistance, capping upside attempts.
Support: The lower boundary around 37,708 offers a critical level of demand, preventing deeper pullbacks.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
The 50-day SMA (blue) at 39,018 aligns closely with the current price, acting as a pivot point within the range.
The 200-day SMA (red) at 38,706 reflects the broader bullish structure and serves as a longer-term support level.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 53.12, reflecting neutral momentum with no immediate overbought or oversold signals.
MACD: Showing flat momentum near zero, consistent with range-bound trading conditions.
What to Watch:
A breakout above 40,236 or a breakdown below 37,708 will likely signal the next major directional move.
Watch for price action around the 50-day SMA for clues on short-term direction.
Monitor RSI and MACD for any divergence that could indicate an impending shift in momentum.
The Japan 225 is in consolidation mode, with well-defined boundaries providing traders with clear levels to monitor for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.
-MW
NIKKEI LONGThere is a pattern on M15, M30 and H1
This trade is with the H4 and Daily trend
Stop loss of 200 pips
Take first profit at M15 overbought
Nikkei 225 Short1)Trend defined. 4h downtrend.
2)Contradictory limit entry order. Close to the half of the last 1h consolidation area.
3)Default loss. Just above the double top.
4)Default target level. 5.05.
5)Risk <= 3%.
6)Singular trade.
7)Trades placed today <= 5.
