Nikkei 225 Falls 1% on Strong Yen and Rate HikesToday, Asian stock markets presented mixed results, driven by expectations of lower interest rates in the United States, with a strong emphasis on the Japanese market, where the Nikkei 225 and also the TOPIX fell by almost 1%. This decline was mainly due to the strength of the yen, which negatively affected export and technology stocks. The pressure on the Nikkei 225 reflects expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, a move that could continue to weaken the index. Meanwhile, other Asian markets rose, driven by expectations of lower interest rates, following gains on Wall Street. However, in China, indices fell on concerns about the economic slowdown and liquidity withdrawal by the People's Bank of China.
Currently the price is in the area of 37,980.44 slightly below the checkpoint (POC) 38,614.40 points. The current trading zone is in the range between 39,450 and 36,650 points. It has recovered the 2nd support that was fractured on August 2, it remains to be seen if the evolution of the yen negatively affects the index in the coming weeks causing the index to fall to the lower part of the range again or continue its recovery towards the highs.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst Activtrades
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JP225 trade ideas
NIKKEI 225 bullish analysisBullish count for NI225 has price in wave 5 of (3) of ((3)).
I like this count in the idea that it likely means US equities will see continued upside for some time, as I doubt this count plays out while US equities tank.
I will be following this chart, not to trade it, but to correlate it with US equity price action.
Japan _ 225 _ Future _ Distribution _ Prices __ Under _ Trading Japan _ 225 _ Future _ Distribution _ Prices __ Under _ Trading _ Venue _ OANDA.
$38,893.8
$38,930.7
$39,010.7
$39,227.4
$39,731.0
___________________
2nd Distribution prices:
$40,886.9
$41,523.1
$41,725.4
$41,887.1
___________________
3rd Distribution prices:
$43,799.3
$44,337.3
$44,616.3
$44,986.6
$45,026.0
_____________________
4th Distribution prices:
$45,354.7
$45,723.8
$46,095.8
$46,970.6
____________________
5th Distribution price:
$47,763.9
$48,451.1
$48,760.2
$48,930.0
$48,988.8
Final Distribution for 4 years economic range = $50,341.9
JP225 / NIKKEI INDEX 225 Money Heist Plan On Long SideMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist JAPAN 225 Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
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Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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NIKKEI is at key resistanceIf NIKKEI does not break the green line in my snapshot, which is a line established by Sun upon His entrance into Taurus, tomorrow (Wednesday 21 August...)
then in this case NIKKEI is likely to only retest that line again on Wednesday 4 September (+/- one day)
That line is 38,268 and is a strong resistance. On Wednesday 4 September NIKKEI has a stronger chance of breaking through that resistance line.
SPREADEX:NIKKEI
Short Nikkei 225Japan's economy is in big trouble that will take a generation or two to fix. Yet, if you look at the big picture of Nikkei, it may appear that it took them 40 years to solve problems from previous generations. In reality, that is not the case and I think we will see a sea of corporate scandals hit the news.
So let's wait and see)
Nikkei Short: Stop above today's highI am shorting this index because I think the vertical run is not sustainable. Also, I think USD/JPY is also going down. I believe the bottom trendline will be broken.
Take note that this trade has a tight stop loss above today's high.
09:36- pennat br up 5m RS up L3 to Range top09:36- pennat br up 5m RS up L3 to Range top
wee
LONG SCAL day trade JP225 sync
MN UP PWBB
W down
DAY
4h pwbb up
15m pennant br up RS L3
09:36- pennat br up 5m RS up L3 to Range top09:36- pennat br up 5m RS up L3 to Range top
wee
LONG SCAL day trade JP225 sync
MN UP PWBB
W down
DAY
4h pwbb up
15m pennant br up RS L3
Japan vs US economicsTrying to understand the economics background of the recently JPY carry trade reversal.
Understanding the JPY/USD exchange rate by comparing Japan and US in terms of their
* stock index
* currency interest rate
* central bank balance sheet.
NIKKEI to extend gains, temporarily or not.NIKKEI dropped 12% yesterday only to recover 10% today. It seems that the Japanese bull showed some teeth at the lows yesterday and they are ready for a counter attack. I see an important resistance at 37,250, while a drop below the psychological support of 33,000 would like cause an extension of losses.
BUY at market (33, 750)
SL at 33,000 (750 points)
TP at 37,000 (3,250 points)
Nikkei 225 Downtrend Line Breakout At 36723.32 JPY 15.08.2024Apply risk management
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Disclaimer
Short Nikkei I actually thought Nikkei was making a low after the last dump and bought quite close to the low, but although we're up since then we have action more consistent with a correction than a reversal off the lows.
If this is just a bear market rally, then we're likely to see the top here around the 76 fib.
What Rate Hikes? It's a MessNikkei
- GDP growth metrics are expected to grow
JPY
- BOJ'S UCHIDA: WE MUST MAINTAIN CURRENT DEGREE OF MONETARY EASING FOR THE TIME BEING
- OJ'S UCHIDA: SEE NO BIG CHANGE TO JAPAN, U.S., ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS SO MARKET REACTION TO SINGLE U.S. DATA APPEARS TOO BIG
- JPY is overbought in the short-term according to CFTC
Technical & Other
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Down
Long-term: Down
Min target: mirror level, 3R
Risk: 1.31%
Last Engulfing Top on Japan 225: Bearish Reversal AheadIn this 1-hour chart of Japan 225, a bearish **Last Engulfing Top** pattern has formed, indicating a potential reversal after a bullish run. The engulfing candle suggests that sellers are gaining control, and a short position may be considered if the price continues to decline below the engulfing candle's low.
Key Points:
- Pattern Identification: The Last Engulfing Top is a strong bearish signal, occurring after a notable uptrend.
- Confirmation: The price is currently trading below the pattern, adding confidence to the bearish outlook.
- Potential Targets:Traders may target the support levels around 35,400 - 35,336 USD, with stops placed above the engulfing pattern near 36,294 USD.
Risk Management:
- Monitor for any bullish reversal signals that could invalidate this setup.
- Adjust stop-loss levels according to your risk tolerance and market conditions.
This setup offers a clear bearish opportunity, but as always, proper risk management is crucial when trading reversal patterns.
NIKKEI Still bullish short-term.NIKKEI (NI225) has more than recovered all of last week's losses and is about to have its most important test of this rebound, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The current Megaphone resembles the one in 2023, which had one last rejection just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and after it broke above the 1D MA50, before the High was tested. Our short-term Target is 39000.
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The Controversial Nikkei and the Yen Carry Trade (FAKE)Nikkei - From July 8 to Aug 5 - Fell 28.5% - approx 1 month
From last Monday it went 20.7% - 4 times faster than it fell
And the entire world was so negative the previous weekend as if this is going to be the end of the world
Where are the TV Analysts who predicted a Global Catastrophe now ?
Where are the Controversial Kings who predicted US Recession ?
Pin drop silence across all the TV Channels. And yet, the Regulatory bodies around the world including SEBI doesn't take action on them for triggering Panic and causing Hard Losses to Innocent Retail Investors
Don't judge the Book by its cover !!! Don't accept any analysis by its face value !!!
Do you own research - just using Charts - you don't need anything else and you will be able to uncover even the greatest of Controversies killing the world market
Nikkei futures chart the potential "down first, then up" trend
The index is currently in a downtrend. The latest price is 36,232.44, which represents a significant drop of about 7.34% from the recent peak. In the short term, it may continue to test support levels.
Potential Support Levels:
The chart marks several important Fibonacci retracement levels. The 0.5 retracement level at around 36,864.78 could serve as a crucial support. If this level breaks, the next support might be around 30,867.58 (0 retracement level).
Rebound Momentum:
Seasonal data shows that September and October are typically positive months, with average gains of 1.05% and 1.92% respectively. This could provide upward momentum for the index.
Long-term Upside Target:
The chart projects a long-term upside target at 50,208.18 (1.618 Fibonacci extension level). This suggests a bullish long-term outlook.
Possible "Down First, Then Up" Path:
Based on this analysis, the index might continue to decline to the support level around 36,864.78, or potentially lower. Subsequently, it could start rebounding due to seasonal factors and technical support, gradually breaking through previous highs and ultimately climbing towards the long-term target of 50,208.18.
Risk Factors:
It's important to note that if the index breaks below the critical support at 30,867.58, it could invalidate this "down first, then up" expectation and potentially trigger a deeper correction.
In conclusion, the Nikkei 225 index is currently in a correction phase, but technical and seasonal factors suggest a possibility of declining first before rising. Traders should watch key support levels and wait for reversal signals before considering entry. Risk management is crucial, and close attention should be paid to market changes.
NIKKIE BUY AREA 33KBOJ intervention and Yen rally has sparked global recession.Currently we are eyeing on 33K region which is preferred buying zone respecting in Risk to Reward Ratio and trade management .We will open a buy order and wait for a pullback as fed has started a emergency meeting and rumours are spreading of earlier rate cut.
If our Plan A buying on 33K Fails we will follow Plan B which is Selling on retracement again following R:R with trade management.
Goodluck
Update Nikkei 225: Still short but changed upper trendlineThis is an update from my previous idea. There are a couple of concepts in Technical analysis that I want to share, but let's look at what's changed and what's not changed:
Not Changed:
1. Still a short call.
2. The short position (SL and TP)
What's changed:
1. Changed upper trendline from horizontal to slightly upward slanting.
2. Changed end point of wave 5 (could be changed again)
There is one concept that I want to gel together between traditional TA and EW. Here goes:
1. In traditional TA, if we assume that we have an ascending triangle, the strength of a breakout (upwards) weakens as price nears the apex of the triangle. In fact, a breakdown becomes more likely and will be fiercer if the ascending triangle fails.
2. In EW, as we have seen here, if this is an ending diagonal, the next move will be a sharp down move.
The above 2 points, if we merge them together, became a failed ascending triangle and confirmed an "ending diagonal". Given that both results in sharp decline, we have a convergence of idea for the next move: a sharp downwards move in price.
The Power of Trap Plays: Understanding Liquidity Warnings█ INTRODUCTION
In the world of trading and investing, understanding market dynamics is crucial for success. One of the key concepts that often go unnoticed, yet plays a significant role in shaping market behavior, is the "trap play." Trap plays are strategic moves by large market participants designed to exploit or manipulate liquidity, creating opportunities for informed traders while serving as warnings for those who are less vigilant. In this article, we explore why trap plays are good liquidity warnings and how they can be used to navigate the complexities of the financial markets.
█ WHAT ARE TRAP PLAYS?
Trap plays are deceptive market maneuvers where large players, often institutions or experienced traders, create a false sense of market direction to entice retail traders or smaller players into making decisions that ultimately lead to losses. These plays can manifest in various forms, such as false breakouts, sudden reversals, or unexpected price spikes, all aimed at manipulating the supply and demand dynamics of a particular asset.
For example, a false breakout occurs when the price of an asset appears to break through a significant support or resistance level, leading traders to believe that a strong trend is about to emerge. However, once these traders enter positions based on this perceived breakout, the price reverses, trapping them in losing positions.
█ TRADING TRAP PLAYS
While trap plays are often viewed negatively, they can be valuable tools for astute traders who recognize them as liquidity warnings. By understanding the mechanics of trap plays, traders can:
◆ Avoid Being Trapped: By staying vigilant and not rushing into trades based on apparent breakouts or breakdowns, traders can avoid falling victim to traps set by larger players. This caution is particularly important during periods of low liquidity or heightened market volatility.
◆ Identify Reversal Opportunities: Savvy traders can use trap plays to their advantage by recognizing when a false breakout or other trap play is likely to reverse. This insight allows them to position themselves on the right side of the trade, capitalizing on the missteps of others.
◆ Gauge Market Sentiment: Trap plays can also provide insights into market sentiment and the intentions of large players. By observing how these plays unfold, traders can gain a better understanding of the underlying liquidity conditions and adjust their strategies accordingly.
█ CONCLUSION
Trap plays are more than just deceptive tactics used by large market participants; they are also important liquidity warnings that can provide valuable insights into the state of the market. By recognizing and understanding these plays, traders can protect themselves from potential losses and even use these situations to their advantage. In the fast-paced and often unpredictable world of trading, staying aware of liquidity conditions and the potential for trap plays is essential for long-term success.
Nikkei 225: Short on A-B-C wave with C wave an "ending diagonal"I believe that the recent rebound of Nikkei 225 forms as A-B-C wave 4 where C wave is potentially an "ending diagonal". If that turns out to be the case, then the breakdown from the bottom trendline will be a sharp fall.
Alternate Count:
The alternate count to take note is that the 1-2-3 will become A-B-C and A wave becomes wave 1. As for the expected wave C, it will then be an "ascending triangle".
