FTSE 100 OutlookCurrently, I see the FTSE 100 in a short-term bearish phase, having broken the last key demand zone that supported the BOS (Break of Structure) to all-time highs (ATH). This signals that bearish momentum could continue, with price potentially seeking lower liquidity before finding support. However, my long-term outlook remains bullish, with the earliest signs of a potential resumption likely appearing around the green demand zones at the bottom of my chart.
From a macro perspective, slowing/stalling UK economic growth (with a projected GDP m/m from 0.4% to 0.1% 14/03/25 ) could put downward pressure on the index and provide a more clearer outlook for the month
UK100 trade ideas
FTSE 100 OutlookCurrently, I see the FTSE 100 in a short-term bearish phase, having broken the last key demand zone that supported the BOS (Break of Structure) to all-time highs (ATH). This signals that bearish momentum could continue, with price potentially seeking lower liquidity before finding support. However, my long-term outlook remains bullish, with the earliest signs of a potential resumption likely appearing around the green demand zones at the bottom of my chart.
From a macro perspective, slowing/stalling UK economic growth (with a projected GDP m/m from 0.4% to 0.1% 14/03/25 ) could put downward pressure on the index and provide a more clearer outlook for the month
FTSE100 (UK100) The Week Ahead 10th March '25Sentiment: Neutral, Price action is consolidating in a tight trading range.
Resistance: Key Resistance is at 8760, followed by 8910 and 9000.
Support: Key support is at 8620 followed by 8536 and 9000.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bearish drop?UK100 has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support level which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 8,701.78
1st Support: 8,536.52
1st Resistance: 8,783.04
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FTSE 100 setting itself for a 600 point Crash?As I did an analysis on downside to potentially come for the S&P500 yesterday, looks like the FTSE is following suit.
If they don't sort out these issues, we could see a 600 points crash for the FTSE...
Here are some reasons...
New U.S. Tariffs:
President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, sparking fears of a global trade war.
Oil Price Drop:
OPEC+ announced plans to boost oil output in April, leading to a 3% decline in the oil and gas sector.
Weak UK Construction Data:
The UK construction sector faced its most significant downturn since 2020, with the PMI dropping to 44.6 in February, indicating contraction.
Corporate Disappointments: Companies are reporting worse than expected results which is resulting in a lack of confidence in investors.
Melrose – Weak revenue forecast
WPP – Revenue decline, flat 2025 outlook
Quilter – £76m compensation hit, loss reported
Glencore – Lowest profits in 4 years
Shell – Weaker-than-expected annual profits
JD Sports – Multiple profit warnings, stock drop
And the technicals speak for themselves.
We see an M Formation, with the price reaching the neckline. If it breaks below, we could first see the price head to 200MA along with a further crash to 7,992.
We are seeing a pattern with these indices and either this will play out or something drastic will shock the world and will go back to all time highs.
Right now, it's not looking good.
FTSE 100 INTRADAY trend reversal below 8760 levelKey Trading Levels:
Resistance: 8760, 8850, 8910, 8990
Support: 8616, 8536, 8460
Market Sentiment:
Bearish intraday bias following a corrective pullback from overbought conditions.
Bearish Scenario:
The FTSE 100 has broken below the rising trendline and the previous consolidation range, establishing 8760 as a key resistance level.
An oversold bounce from current levels could face rejection at 8760, reinforcing bearish momentum.
A failure to reclaim 8760 may accelerate selling pressure, targeting downside support at 8616, followed by 8536 and 8460.
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained breakout above 8760 with a daily close higher would negate the bearish outlook.
A bullish continuation could drive the index toward 8850, with further upside targets at 8910 and 8990.
Conclusion:
Intraday sentiment remains bearish unless FTSE 100 reclaims 8760. A rejection at this level could intensify selling pressure toward lower support levels. Conversely, a breakout above 8760 and a strong close would indicate a resumption of the broader uptrend, targeting higher resistance zones.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
UK100 (FTSE)-Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
8380.25 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 8611.20 on 02/21/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 8854.99, 9000.00, 9100.00 and more heights is expected.
Take Profits:
8664.21
8765.00
8854.99
9000.00
9100.00
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FTSE100 H4 | Approaching pullback supportFTSE100 (UK100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 8,784.89 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 8,658.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 8,985.37 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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UK100 - Short - Limit Order @8856.3Looking for a counter trend setup here
Smaller time frames have shows a confirmed CHoCH, we are within our swing range and we are looking to take our Buy side Liquidity before plummeting down into the 61.8% level where we have seen price react alot within the past few days
FTSE Bullish trend continuationThe FTSE 100 (UK100) index continues to trade within a prevailing long-term uptrend, indicating a bullish bias. However, near-term price action suggests potential volatility around key levels, requiring confirmation of directional momentum.
Bullish Scenario:
The key level to watch is 8708, which represents the bull flag breakout level.
A successful retest and rebound from 8708 could reinforce the bullish outlook, targeting 8910 as the first upside resistance.
Sustained momentum above 8910 could extend gains toward 8950, with 8990 acting as a longer-term resistance level.
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed breakdown below 8708 on a daily close could signal weakness, leading to a deeper retracement.
In this scenario, the next support levels to watch are 8680, followed by 8630, where buyers may attempt to regain control.
Further downside pressure below 8630 could weaken the broader uptrend structure, increasing the risk of extended corrective moves.
Conclusion:
The FTSE 100 remains within a bullish trend, but short-term movements depend on price action around 8708. A successful retest and rebound would reaffirm the uptrend, while a confirmed breakdown could introduce further corrective downside risks. Traders should monitor price reactions at these key levels to assess momentum shifts.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
FTSE retest of ATH, The Week Ahead 03rd March ‘25Market Sentiment:
The FTSE 100 index maintains a bullish outlook, supported by the long-term uptrend. However, price action is at a key technical level, where market participants will look for confirmation of the next move.
Bullish Scenario:
Key Support: 8709 (20-day moving average, previous consolidation zone, and rising trendline).
A pullback to this level, followed by a bullish rebound, would confirm continued strength in the uptrend.
Upside Targets:
8850 (initial resistance)
8900 (next key resistance)
9000 (psychological resistance and long-term target)
A strong bounce from 8709 would reinforce bullish momentum and signal a continuation of the prevailing uptrend.
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break below 8709, with a daily close beneath this level, would indicate a potential trend shift or deeper correction.
This could expose the index to further downside risk, targeting:
8650 (next immediate support)
8620, if selling pressure intensifies
A sustained loss of 8709 could weaken bullish sentiment, increasing the likelihood of extended consolidation or correction.
Market Outlook:
The 8709 remains the key pivot level—holding above it supports the bullish case, while a break lower could indicate a shift in momentum. Traders should monitor price action and volume near this level to assess the next directional move in the index.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Elliott Wave View: FTSE Should See More DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave View in FTSE suggests that cycle from 11.13.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from there, wave ((i)) ended at 8388.37 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 8002.34. Wave ((iii)) higher subdivided into another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 8326.32 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 8192.31. Wave (iii) higher ended at 8584.73 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 8462.18 as the 1 hour chart below shows.
The Index then resumed higher. Up from wave (iv), wave i ended at 8692.84 and wave ii pullback ended at 8520.2. Wave iii higher ended at 8767.5 and pullback in wave iv ended at 8685.78. Final leg wave v ended at 8820.93 which completed wave (v) of ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (w) ended at 8638.63 and wave ((x)) ended at 8768.05. Expect the Index to extend lower in wave (y) of ((iv)) to reach 8475 – 8587 area before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 8818.31 high stays intact, expect rally to fail for further downside.
UK100 - PREPARE FOR ANOTHER SHORT Team, yesterday we shorted the UK100 with successful on double short volume as mentioned, and we almost put them into recession, lolz.
Today We are going to set up a short positions
Today, our short position will be at 8748-8762 - add small short volume
Double up on 8776-83
Target 1 at 8725-36
Target 2 at 8702-08
FTSE 100 H1 Technical Analysis: Key Support Test at 8680-8700 Looking at the H1 timeframe for the FTSE 100, we're observing a critical technical setup:
Market Structure:
Price testing key support zone after recent downward pressure
Clear bearish momentum from recent highs at 8833
Moving averages aligned bearishly
Blue box indicating potential continuation zone lower
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 8700
Critical Support: 8682
Current Price: ~8694
Next Support Target: 8616 (Shown in blue box)
Technical Indicators:
Volume showing increased selling interest at highs
Momentum indicators in bearish territory
All major moving averages now acting as resistance
Clear lower highs and lower lows structure forming
Trading Considerations:
Watch for reaction at current support (8682-8700 zone)
Potential for further downside if support breaks
Key resistance now at previous structure around 8750
Risk management crucial at these technical junction points
FTSE INTRADAY Breakout retest at 8675The FTSE (UK100) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend.
The key trading level is at 8675, the “bull flag” breakout level. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 8675 level could target the upside resistance at 8790 followed by the 8854 and 8920 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 8674 support and a daily close below that level could trigger a further retracement and a retest of 8608 support level followed by 8564.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Measured Moves: Understanding Harmonic SimplicityFew tools in trading are forward-looking and adapt to current volatility, Measured Moves do. Unlike traditional indicators, Measured moves offer a structured way to project price targets and turning points with no lag.
Let’s take a deep dive into the harmonic simplicity of the measure move and look at how it can be applied to real-world market conditions.
What Are Measured Moves?
A measured move is a price projection technique that assumes market swings tend to repeat in a proportional manner. By taking the length of a prior move and projecting it forward, traders can identify potential areas where price might react, either as a turning point or a continuation zone. This makes measured moves one of the few truly predictive tools in technical analysis—offering guidance without the lag that comes with moving averages or oscillators.
Beyond their predictive nature, measured moves are inherently adaptive. Markets move through phases of expansion and contraction, meaning fixed-length indicators can become unreliable when volatility shifts. Measured moves, by definition, adjust to the prevailing market conditions, making them particularly effective in dynamic environments.
Example: DXY Daily Candle Charts Measured Move
DXY Daily Candle Charts: Measured Moves
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Timing Profit-Taking with Measured Moves
One of the most effective uses of measured moves is in setting profit targets. In trending markets, traders often struggle with the decision of when to exit—too early and they leave gains on the table, too late and they risk giving back profits. A measured move provides a logical framework for identifying where price may run out of steam.
The process is straightforward: take the length of a completed impulse move and project it from the swing low (in an uptrend) or swing high (in a downtrend) of a subsequent pullback. If price approaches this level and momentum starts to fade, it suggests a natural area for taking profits. This method ensures that you don’t rely solely on intuition or arbitrary levels but instead use market-driven symmetry to guide exits.
Example: FTSE 100 Breakout on Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Entering Two-Legged Pullbacks
Measured moves are also very useful for timing entries in corrective pullbacks—especially in two-legged retracements, which are common in trending markets. Price rarely moves in a straight line; instead, pullbacks often develop in two distinct waves or A,B,C,D pattern before resuming the dominant trend. This pattern can be frustrating for traders who enter too early, only to see price dip lower before the trend continues.
By measuring the size of the first pullback and projecting it forward, traders can anticipate the likely endpoint of the second leg. When price reaches this level and starts to stabilise, it provides a higher-probability entry for traders looking to trade with the trend. This technique works particularly well when combined with broader support or resistance levels, reinforcing key zones where buying or selling pressure may return.
Example: Gold Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Combining Measured Moves with Candle Patterns
Measured moves provide price-based structure, but confirmation from price action can refine entries and exits even further. Candlestick patterns help traders gauge sentiment at key measured move levels, offering a layer of confirmation before taking action.
For profit-taking, if price reaches a measured move projection and forms a reversal pattern—such as a shooting star in an uptrend or a hammer in a downtrend—it strengthens the case for locking in gains. Conversely, for entries, a two-legged pullback that completes at a measured move level becomes even more compelling when a bullish engulfing pattern or pin bar forms, signalling potential trend continuation.
By combining measured moves with candlestick confirmation, you avoid acting on rigid projections alone. Instead, you can use price action cues to validate measured move levels, improving decision-making and reducing false signals.
Summary:
Measured moves provide a structured, adaptable approach to navigating price action. Whether used for profit-taking or timing pullback entries, their ability to adjust to volatility and offer forward-looking projections makes them a valuable tool in a trader’s arsenal. When combined with candlestick patterns, they become even more effective, offering both precision and confirmation in a market that thrives on uncertainty.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Timing the FTSE’s PullbackNvidia has stormed back from its early February lows, rallying more than 20% to erase January’s sharp gap lower. But with the gap now closed, the stock has hit its first real test of resistance.
DeepSeek Reaction: Panic Fades
The initial sell-off was triggered by fears that DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough could loosen Nvidia’s grip on the industry. However, those concerns have since eased. While DeepSeek’s model offers cost advantages, it still relies on Nvidia’s GPUs, and overall AI accelerator demand remains strong. Nvidia’s software ecosystem remains a significant moat, making it difficult for the industry to shift away from its technology on a large scale. The broader takeaway? The market likely overreacted.
The Technical Significance of Gaps
Price gaps aren’t just voids on a chart—they represent key areas of supply and demand imbalance. When a stock gaps lower, it often creates a resistance zone as trapped buyers look to exit when price returns.
After rallying back earlier this month, Nvidia finally posted its first red candle the moment the gap was filled, snapping a ten-session streak of higher closes. This suggests sellers are stepping in, and the battle over direction is heating up.
Forward Scenarios: Breakout or Breakdown?
Breaking Higher: If Nvidia can push beyond the gap close, the next resistance is the late January swing high—the level that triggered the breakdown. Above that, the major hurdle remains the double-top all-time highs from the turn of the year.
Pulling Back: The rally to close the gap has formed a steep ascending trendline. A break below this could open the door for a deeper retracement, with the February swing lows as a key downside target. Given Nvidia’s multi-year uptrend, choppy consolidation phases like this are normal—but if support gives way, it could shift momentum in bears’ favour.
Nvidia (NVDA) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.