US30 (Dow Jones) Probability Analysis – March 4, 2025
Market Structure Across Multiple Timeframes (M15, M30, H1, H4, D1)
Key Observations (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
1️⃣ 15-Minute (M15)
Price has dropped from the PDH (Previous Day’s High) and is now consolidating around the PWL (Previous Weak Low).
Liquidity sweep at PDH led to a sharp decline.
Equilibrium at 43,500 could act as a mid-range resistance if price retraces.
Potential bounce or breakdown from the 43,200 demand zone.
2️⃣ 30-Minute (M30)
Price has fully retraced from the premium zone near 44,300.
PDH (43,800) is confirmed as a strong resistance, leading to a bearish structure.
The next key zone is around 43,000 - 42,900 (liquidity zone).
If price holds above 43,200, a short-term rally could occur toward 43,500.
3️⃣ 1-Hour (H1)
Major bearish BOS (Break of Structure) confirms bearish sentiment.
Equilibrium at 43,500 aligns as a potential resistance zone.
If price breaks below PWL (43,100), next support sits around 42,900 - 42,850.
A retracement to 43,500 - 43,600 could give a short entry.
4️⃣ 4-Hour (H4)
Price is in the Discount Zone after a significant sell-off.
Previous premium zone (44,200) rejected price, leading to a shift in momentum.
If price holds above 43,200, a retracement could be seen towards 43,500.
If price breaks 43,100, a move to 42,850 is expected.
5️⃣ Daily (D1)
Major liquidity grab from the 44,200 supply zone confirms bearish sentiment.
Price is currently testing support around 43,200.
Failure to hold this level could lead to a further decline toward 42,900 - 42,700.
A retracement toward 43,500 - 43,800 could be a shorting opportunity.
1️⃣ Bearish Entry Plan (Short Position)
Entry Criteria (Short)
Ideal Entry Zone: 43,500 – 43,600 (Equilibrium & Lower High).
Confirmations Needed:
Rejection from 43,500 - 43,600 with strong bearish candles.
Break of structure (BOS) on M15/M5 confirming bearish intent.
Liquidity grab near equilibrium before dropping.
Entry Trigger
If price retraces to 43,500 and fails to break above, enter short.
Stop Loss (SL)
Above 43,700 (recent lower high).
Take Profit (TP)
First TP: 43,200 (current demand zone).
Final TP: 42,900 (strong demand zone).
📉 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:4 or higher.
2️⃣ Bullish Entry Plan (Long Position)
Entry Criteria (Long)
Ideal Entry Zone: 43,100 – 43,200 (PWL & Demand Zone).
Confirmations Needed:
Bullish reaction at 43,100 - 43,200 without breaking lower.
Higher low formation on M15 or M5.
Strong bullish candle confirmation.
Entry Trigger
If price rejects 43,100 and shows bullish strength, enter long.
Stop Loss (SL)
Below 42,900 (next liquidity zone).
Take Profit (TP)
First TP: 43,500 (Equilibrium retest).
Final TP: 43,800 (Bearish Breaker Level).
📈 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:3 or higher.
3️⃣ Neutral Strategy (Wait for Confirmation)
If price remains between 43,100 – 43,500, avoid trading.
Wait for either a bearish rejection (short) or a demand hold (long).
Break below 43,100 confirms shorts, while strong demand at 43,200 could give a long opportunity.
Trading Plan Summary
Setup Entry Zone SL TP1 TP2 R:R
✅ Short 43,500 – 43,600 Above 43,700 43,200 42,900 1:4+
🚨 Long 43,100 – 43,200 Below 42,900 43,500 43,800 1:3+
Final Thoughts
Bearish Bias: If price rejects 43,500 - 43,600, expect a drop to 42,900.
Bullish Bias: If price holds above 43,100 - 43,200, expect a bounce to 43,500 - 43,800.
Wait for confirmations before entering trades.
