My current nasdaq sell Nasdaq Short Trade Report 30th - 4th
This report outlines a potential short position on Nasdaq for the upcoming week, based on a confluence of technical indicators and macroeconomic data. Key economic releases such as PMI (Tuesday) and NFP (Friday) are expected to have significant market impact. A weak PMI report, indicating a slowdown in global manufacturing or supply chain issues, could fuel further bearish momentum for tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq.
The trade setup is backed by more than six confluences, including technical sell signals, volatility measures, and fundamental macroeconomic indicators. The entry is targeted around 19,990.34, with a take-profit (TP) at 19,237.95 and a stop-loss (SL) at 20,038.60. This trade is powered by an expectation of significant moves driven by upcoming data and market sentiment.
Market Overview
Key Economic Events:
* PMI on Tuesday: A weak PMI could indicate a slowdown in global manufacturing and potentially push the Nasdaq lower.
ADP Employment Change (Sep)
Wednesday
Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
ISM Services PMI (Sep)
Thursday
A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD
* NFP on Friday: Weak job data could confirm economic slowdown, driving further downside pressure on the Nasdaq.
The broader market sentiment shows increasing volatility, with global supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures impacting growth forecasts. If both the PMI and NFP data come out weaker than expected, this could lead to a sustained sell-off, extending the hold on our trade.
Technical Analysis:
1. 1H Sell Signal & 4H Rejection off Resistance
* 1H Chart: The EA has generated a sell signal on the 1-hour timeframe. We are awaiting further confirmation from the 4H rejection off resistance, which will strengthen the bearish case.
* 4H Chart: The 4-hour rejection off resistance level is crucial for reinforcing the short. If resistance holds, it could signal a substantial move to the downside.
2. RSI Overbought Condition on 4H
* The RSI on the 4-hour chart indicates that the market is overbought, suggesting potential for a pullback. The last significant overbought point led to a sell-off, with the entry expected around 19,990.34. The TP is set at 19,237.95, and the SL at 20,038.60. This equates to a move of roughly 752 points (or pips), calculated between the entry and TP levels.
3. Rising ATR (Volatility Indicator)
* The ATR is nearing a reading of 100, signaling that the market is becoming increasingly volatile. Such levels typically indicate sharp, aggressive moves ahead, likely coinciding with the NFP release on Friday. This supports a more volatile Nasdaq environment, conducive to significant price movements in our favor.
Fundamental Analysis (Macroeconomic Indicators)
4. Dollar Index (DXY) Impact
* DXY: A rising Dollar Index often places downward pressure on tech stocks in the Nasdaq, as a stronger dollar reduces overseas earnings. The DXY has bounced off of support and appears to be trending upwards, which could be confirmed after the next market open with a 1H buy signal from the EA. A bullish DXY will further reinforce the bearish outlook on Nasdaq.
* VIX (Volatility Index): Rising VIX levels indicate increased market uncertainty, which tends to lead to sell-offs in riskier assets like tech stocks. If the VIX continues its upward trajectory, it could trigger further bearish sentiment on the Nasdaq.
Formula:
* VIX (rising) + DXY (stronger dollar) = Nasdaq bearish pressure.
Volume Analysis:
5. High Volume Sell-offs
* Significant volume spikes occurred during the 4-hour rejection at the 20,200 level, indicating large institutional sell-offs. High volume at key resistance levels often signifies institutional participation, further validating the bearish outlook.
Sentiment and Positioning Data:
6. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report
* The latest COT report shows a notable shift, with a net positive for short positions over longs, with 7,000 additional short positions. This sentiment aligns with the overall bearish outlook on Nasdaq, as institutions appear to be positioning for downside risk.
7. Greed Sentiment
* The greed sentiment index currently shows extreme greed in the market, which typically signals a contrarian move to the downside. When markets reach excessive greed, they are often primed for a correction, supporting our short position.
After negative news already in a bearish movement when their is a trigger towards fear is going up and after heavy greed occurred (like mini stock market crashes) Then market will only want to buy back (at the lowest level of fear) so stay focused on news events that can further drive down price in an already bearish sentiment
Trade Setup:
Entry:
* Sell Entry: 19,990.34
Take-Profit (TP):
* TP Target: 19,237.95
* Pip Distance: Approximately 752 pips.
Stop-Loss (SL):
* SL Level: 20,038.60
* Pip Distance: Approximately 48 pips above the entry.
Position Size:
* Account Size: R1500
* Lot Size: 0.1 lot, as each 40-pip move corresponds to R830.
1. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
* Buy Opportunity:
* Entry Trigger: If the price breaks above the recent resistance at 100.455 and the RSI moves above 50, this could confirm a bullish momentum.
* Stop Loss: Place below the recent support at 100.388.
* Take Profit: Target the next resistance level at 101.000.
* Sell Opportunity:
* Entry Trigger: If the price fails to break above resistance and drops below 100.388, with the RSI confirming a bearish trend, consider entering a sell.
* Stop Loss: Set above the resistance level.
* Take Profit: Aim for the lower support level around 100.200.
* 2. VIX (Volatility Index)
* Buy Opportunity:
* The VIX showing a breakout above its recent highs could signal increasing market volatility.
* Consider buying VIX options or ETFs if it approaches or exceeds 18.50.
* Sell Opportunity:
* If the VIX starts showing signs of rejection below 17.50, this could signal a return to stability, making it an opportunity to sell VIX positions.
Risk-Reward Profile:
The risk-to-reward ratio for this trade is highly favorable. Given the expected downside move and the strategic placement of the SL and TP, we are targeting a 1:15 risk-to-reward ratio, based on current technical setups and market sentiment.
Conclusion:
This Nasdaq short trade is supported by a combination of technical sell signals, macro fundamentals, and market sentiment data. The bearish scenario is reinforced by high volume sell-offs, overbought RSI conditions, rising DXY, and increased market volatility (VIX and ATR). Key economic events, such as the PMI and NFP, will play a pivotal role in determining the strength and duration of this trade.
Institutional participation and positioning data (COT) further suggest that the downside potential is significant. Based on these confluences, the trade offers a compelling risk-to-reward profile for a short position on Nasdaq this week.
Updates on Nasdaq as of Tuesday 1 October
- PMI results for the US ended coming our negative now the market has moved to its bearish momentum as expected on Tuesday
- Vix and DXY at highs
In 300 points on this short
USTEC trade ideas
NASDAQas predicted, was looking at this sell opportunity, but my over all are buys at this 15min and 1 hr order block at bottom. i can do a entire break down but then i would be giving away valuable knowldge, that i had to learn, but anyways yea save this one and the last one i posted n buys and youll see why i bought at the bottom, and now going for another buy
UPDATE ON NAS100 SHORTSNAS100 1H - As you can see the analysis we put out last week has played out perfectly for us as price continues to trade us lower, I am expecting this bearishness to continue right down to our TP.
I was looking for another re-entry for us all but couldn't quite put my finger on one, nonetheless we have had two clear opportunities to get involved in this market and price has played out really well since.
This trade is currently running + 650 pips. (+ 5.5%) 5.5RR
Please ensure that those of you who did take part in this trade are taking partials throughout the running position, its important to do this as it mitigates risk and maximises profits. I have gone ahead and taken a 50% partial personally.
I will be monitoring this position over the coming days and I will try and source an additional entry for those who may have missed the first two. Any questions drop me a message or comment below!
NASDAQ US100 TODAYMore things tell me more sell than buy.
This is my view on NASDAQ today
Remember about small risk
USNAS100 / Bearish Below 20,080, Bullish Above 20,280Nasdaq Technical Analysis:
Futures dip ahead of labor data; Powell signals modest rate cuts
Currently, the price needs to stabilize below 20,080 to target 19860, with a potential further decline to 19,690 by breaking 19860.
On the other hand, if the price stabilizes above 20180, it could aim for 20450 and 20700.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20090
Resistance Levels: 20180, 20420, 20710
Support Levels: 19900, 19,690, 19,540
Expected Trading Range for Today: 19860 to 20280
Trend:
Bearish by stability under 20080
Bullish: If 20280 is broken
Us100Us100
Forecast for October came early hope you caught it !!!!!
More coming soon..
Will be posting a full update after new York close .
POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITY ON THE NAS100 (NASDAQ)Hey everyone I hope you are having a blessed weekend so far! Just wanted to get on here and share a potential short opportunity I see on the NAS100 (NASDAQ) index! OK so let's dive in!
OK so on the higher timeframe I think it is fairly clear that price is sitting around all time highs for this index...now I DONT USUALLY try to short the stock/indices market very often but I see potential from that previous level of supply formed back in July of this year! We can see that price fell sharply and strongly from that level of formed supply, or seller area. However it makes sense for you!
SO what I am really looking for in the current and future price is how the buyers bring price into that level. If it comes very strong to that level that I would NOT be interested in trading it short since momentum=interest in the markets. What I mean is that the markets are like a receipt, the larger the order, the larger the order will appear on the receipt (charts).
Alright guys going to keep this one simple! Whatever technical confluences you use with your trading zones of course you should apply and always use good risk management.
Appreciate you all please boost post and follow my page for more accurate setups! Cheers! God Bless!
Final-UPDATE_NAS100-H4_September-2024The analysis proved to be accurate.
Waiting for the next trade.
NASDAQ. BUY@HELLO everyone , BELOW 💲19733.2 "US Tech 100" price is cheap to buy and @💲20482.3 "US Tech 100" price is expensive to buy. , i wanna see price trading bellow 💲19733.2 then find a buy setup on the lower timeframes..
{new week , new month "NFP Week"
NASDAQ SELLSAs usual, price have been on an expansion leg to the upside for quite sometime. And then it topped, before taking out the buyside liquidity and then just recently broke to the downside
I want to see a retest into the 4hr FVG and then a continuation leg to the equal lows below current market price
NAS 100 IS bearing todayNAS100 broke out of the right shoulder in the head and shoulders formation early 10/1/2024. Perhaps on the heels of the dock workers strike since 12 Midnight? Take profit where it makes sense for you.
Correction TradeWhat we have here is a correction that has formed a trendline, now we have a breakout and retest, which suggest a bullish impulse move
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
Nasdaq Retest, Bearish HarmonicAfter Powell's speach the markets closed high but he indicates a metered approach. Noticed the bearish harmonic and retest.
These are not what I view as strong/high alpha signals but they are there to trade intraday.
My bias is neutral to bullish.
Bullish outlook on US100"The W pattern has been completed on the daily timeframe. The inside bar on the weekly timeframe has been broken. The price is heading towards record highs. The U.S. economy is described as being in a 'solid' condition, with the plan for significant interest rate cuts from now until the end of the year supporting this bullish outlook."
UPDATE_Analysis-NAS100-H4_September-2024The confirmation for the previous analysis has not arrived.
In fact, there has just been a change in directionality, which made me think about this entry.
I apologize if I didn't publish the analysis in time for a potential trade.
NASDAQ/US100Hi everyone hope y'all doing good this morning. Okay let's get down to business according to my today analysis Nas100 will have a short buy saying this based on my strategy but you can drop your thought down below. if you found this helpful please press the follow button it motive me to drop analysis. Thanks
NAS100 BUY ANALYSIS DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN Here on Nas100 price has just form a double bottom which means that the probability of going up is big so a trader should be go for LONG if price reaches line 20106.8 with target profit of 20243.3 . Use money management
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): More Growth is Coming
I see a strong bullish setup on US100.
After a retest of a recently broken key level,
the market violated a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
With a high probability, we will see a bullish movement soon
at least to 20165.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
ICT Long setup Swing Trade on NAS100USD👋Hello Traders,
Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in
NAS100USD for session trade (a couple of hours)
Here is a session trade idea (since it is near support surface, we should use small lot size)
Please refer to the details Stop loss, Buy Zone,open for take profit.
For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview.
Have a good day!
Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
Nasdaq Thoughts 01-Oct-2024Happy New Month all, Kindly see my Nasdaq thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
NAS100USD / TRADING INTO SENSITIVE AREA - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The statement mentions that prices began to increase by 10.95% at the beginning of September.
This indicates a strong bullish trend at the start of the month, reflecting optimism in the market or strong performance from NASDAQ 100 constituent companies.
Yesterday's drop of 1.61% indicates a short-term bearish move, suggesting market sentiment has turned negative or there's profit-taking after the earlier rally.
The expectation of a further decline of 2.35% and potentially 3.92% implies that the current bearish sentiment may persist.
Technical Analysis:
Current Market Condition:
The statement suggests that the NASDAQ 100 is trading in a sensitive range between 20,330 and 19,954, and that breaking either of these levels will determine the market's direction.
Upward Condition:
- Target 1: If the price trades above 20,330, it's expected to rise to 20,795.
- Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 20,795, the next target is 20,980.
Downward Condition:
- If the price falls below 19,954, it suggests a potential decline:
- Target 1: A decline to 19,884.
- Target 2: If it breaks below 19,884, further decline is expected to 19,335.
