Weekly Analysis🚨 September 30th - October 4th 🚨
Welcome Traders,
As I mentioned in my previous idea post, since the weekly LH is currently respecting the 88.00% fib level where the previous weekly HL respected, there is a high probability that if history repeats itself, we price may continue to retrace to signal either a 23H HL or signal a weekly HL before price resumes it's bullish trend to break ATHs. One of the reasons why my bias is bearish is because if we zoom out to the 15H chart, price is within an ascending channel and is currently respecting the channel's mid point which also aligns with a strong resistance level highlighted as a red zone. The bulls are failing to stay above this area suggesting that price may retrace to test the lows of the channel.
Using my fib tool, the low of the channel aligns with the 38.2% level of extreme volatility.
Therefore, my bias for the week is bearish until the higher TFs signal their respective HL. Currently, the 11H TF is the biggest TF for price to signal its HL point.
The 11H HL signalled at the 38.2% fib level of extreme volatility. This fib level is often described as extreme volatility because price can shoot in either direction. Price broke below the 38.2% down to 19,864.7 before shooting back up into the consolidation range from last week.
On the 4H chart we can see more clearly that price keeps trying to make new lows but is constantly being rejected by a level of support. At the same time however this rejection fails to create new HHs. This tells me that with the help of news or economic data released this week, price will give one final push to create a new LH at a resistance level on the smaller timeframe before resuming its downtrend.
Using my fibs on the 4H chart, price can retest a resistance level at 20,173.2 which aligns at the 61.8% fib retracement level.
Trading Plan going forward
As part of my trading plan I do not trade on Monday and Tuesdays due to low volume and consolidation and with NFP on Friday, we may not get a clear directional move until then. It is likely that price will continue to range as the market remains indecisive leading up to NFP.
Since my bias is sells, my aim is to sell at the highest point. Therefore, I will be waiting for price to retest a resistance level to enter into sell position. As long as price remains below 20,173.2, the retracement is valid.
