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NASDAQ Is an August Low re-test inevitable?Nasdaq (NDX) got heavily rejected last week on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and almost reached on Friday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That was the level that was brutally breached on the August 05 Low, which only found Support on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and rebounded. Technically those last two MA trend-lines are the long-term Buy Zone of the 2-year Channel Up that started after the October 13 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Based on the last two major Higher Lows of that pattern though, it is possible for the index to re-test that August Low as it happened both on December 28 2022 (re-test of the October 13 2022 Low) and September 27 2023 (re-test of the August 13 2023 Low). The latter in fact dived on a 3rd wave a little lower to test the 1D MA200, but this time, this condition has already been met (1D MA200 already tested). This Low re-test tendency is also evident on the 1D RSI fractals among the Higher Lows sequences. If that scenario is materialized, it would give us both a big bullish and a big bearish development. From the bullish side, a 17300 re-test would form an exact Higher Low at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up, which is positive as it will fulfil a strong bullish condition to move forward. On the bearish side though, that would mean a breach of the 1W MA50, which technically would be very negative, unless the 1W candle that will break it, manages to close the week above it on a strong bounce. Until then, lets initially see if the 1D MA200 holds (currently early in the day/ week it does) as if the price reverses here, we can technically have a bottom similar to October 26 2023. In any case, Nasdaq is just above the 1st long-term Buy Zone currently. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100
by TradingShot
NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100 NASDAQ👀👉 The NAS100 has broken key structural support on the daily and 4-hour charts, signaling potential bearish momentum with the NASDAQ. I expect this downward move to extend towards previous lows, as highlighted on the chart. However, my approach is to wait for a bullish retracement early in the week, aiming to catch a reversal that confirms an entry for a short position. It's important to note that this analysis is based on probabilities, not certainties. Always wait for price confirmation before executing any trades, as discussed in the accompanying video. The analysis provides a comprehensive overview of current price action, trend direction, and market structure. Keep in mind, this is for educational purposes only. Trading carries inherent risks, so make sure you have a solid risk management plan in place at all times. 📈✅
FX:NAS100
by tradingwithanthony
1
short There are several reasons why NASDAQ 100 (US100) could potentially drop to the levels of 17750 and 17212, based on technical and fundamental analysis. Here's a breakdown: 1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The levels 17750 and 17212 could correspond to key Fibonacci retracement levels. When markets experience a sharp upward trend, they often retrace back to critical support levels. A retracement to 17750 might indicate a 50% retracement, a common support level where markets consolidate or bounce after a pullback. The 17212 level could represent a deeper retracement, potentially around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is often seen as a strong support zone in technical analysis. 2. Technical Patterns: Bearish patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, or broadening wedges could indicate further downward movement. If 17750 represents a short-term support level and the market breaks below it, 17212 could be the next target, especially if market sentiment remains bearish. 3. MACD and RSI Signals: If momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are signaling overbought conditions or have recently crossed bearish signals, this could suggest further downside. A significant drop in RSI below 30 could indicate that the market is moving into oversold territory, but before it gets there, the price might test these lower support levels. 4. Fundamental Factors: Rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve can have a negative impact on tech stocks, which dominate the NASDAQ 100. Higher borrowing costs hurt high-growth companies more significantly, as they rely heavily on cheap financing for expansion. Additionally, inflationary pressures may force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, which could further depress growth-oriented stocks. Any signs of economic slowdown or a looming recession could also weigh on NASDAQ 100, prompting further selling pressure and causing the index to drop to key technical support levels. 5. Market Sentiment and Valuation: There has been growing concern over the valuation of tech stocks, especially those driven by the AI boom, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and others. If there’s a shift in sentiment or investors start to question these valuations, a broader correction in tech stocks could follow. JPMorgan and other financial institutions have warned that the tech rally could be overextended, suggesting a potential bubble. If that bubble bursts, the NASDAQ 100 could see a significant correction. 6. Geopolitical Risks and External Factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade conflicts, energy crises, or conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war) could create risk-off sentiment in the market, leading investors to move away from riskier assets like NASDAQ 100 into safer havens like gold or bonds. Supply chain disruptions in tech industries or tightening regulations could also negatively impact earnings growth and valuations, accelerating a move downward. 7. Previous Historical Support Levels: 17212 might correspond to a significant historical support level where the index previously found a bottom during past corrections or crises. If the market approaches this level again, it would likely act as strong support, but a breach could lead to further declines. Summary A drop to 17750 and potentially 17212 would likely be driven by a combination of technical retracement, weakening market sentiment, and fundamental pressures such as rising interest rates, a tech valuation correction, or broader economic concerns. These levels could represent key support zones where the market either consolidates or rebounds, depending on the prevailing sentiment and external conditions.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by fotbalistarb
Weekly Analyses and Recap: Will the bulls or bears prevail ??Sep 9 - 13 2024 Welcome Traders to another weekly analyses and recap post. On Thursday Aug 22nd price signalled a Daily LH at 19,946.6 after which it began to sell. Price has been selling for 2 full weeks now where the Daily HL currently sits at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Week 3 will be the telltale if price will continue to signal a weekly HL or respect the Daily HL at the 61.8%. Previously, when the weekly HL was completed on Aug 4th at 17,239.4 price had sold for 3 full weeks. By the end of Week 2 (July 21-28) the Daily HL was sitting at the 78.6% retracement level after which it made a bullish correction. However this correction was short lived because on Tuesday July 30th of Week 3, price respected a level of resistance at 19,236.6 and continued its downtrend breaking below the Daily HL of week 2. This was confirmation that price was not respecting the 78.6% retracement level and would continue to sell until the weekly HL was signalled. History usually repeats itself and so using that knowledge, for this week I will be watching keenly to see whether price breaks below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday. So last Friday Sep 6th, price made an indication - a new low or Daily HL at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Price is currently making a bullish correction until it eventually reaches a level of resistance. This resistance level can potential be 19,111.7 - 19,236.6 where price previously respected. Once price respects a resistance level, it will then make a new low which for me will be the indication on whether price wants to continue bearish for a third week or commence its uptrend. Understand that in any given trend, price must make a series of Highs and Lows but where these highs and lows fall relative to previous will be the indication of which type of trend the market is in. For an uptrend, price must not break below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday which will act as a key support. Therefore, a HL will be the indication of a reversal to an uptrend. For a downtrend, price must respect the resistance level from the previous week (19,111.7 - 19,236.6) and break below 18,310.5 at the close of the previous weekly candle. If a LL forms on the smaller TFs this means that the Daily HL will continue to retrace down to the 78.6% retesting the previous weekly HL. On my chart I have highlighted two TP areas where price can continue to retrace if we get a third week of retracement: - 17,640.5 which is the 78.6% reracement level on the Daily TF - 16,807.9 which is not only a retest of the previous weekly HL but also the point at which the monthly HL should signal. If price reaches here, this would mark the first monthly HL since October 2022. (price has essentially been on a strong uptrend for over 2 years). With that being said, I will not be taking any trades on Sunday and Monday as I will be observing price action accordingly to decipher the trend for the rest of the week. Happy Trading Everyone. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask
OANDA:NAS100USD
by jhannellefrancis
NAS100 Outlook 💹 Indices: 👁️ Outlook Long Term time frame (5hr): We have been breaking bearish on the 5hr and showing strength to the downside. Long Term (5hr): Price however is over extended and needs to build liquidity over the week. Intermediate frame (30m): This is what I am expecting for the sessions to look like by the time its NY session. I believe we could be seeing longs for the start of the week on Indices to build that liquidity. I will be looking for longs Monday NY session depending how price looks at 8:30am EST. Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by angelvalentinx
Nasdaq already in a Bear Market Hello everyone, We are currently in a topping process and chances are July 10, 2024 was the top for the Nasdaq (NDX). I believe that we will fill the gap before entering the bear market. A confirmation of a lower high on NDX and a higher high on SPX would show a clear divergence confirming a market top. It's clear that the Russell (IWM) is not making new highs and showing a clear divergence from SPX and NDX making new highs suggesting this is the top. NDX may have already entered a bear market and will not be making new highs and this is simply an ABC corrective wave up before making new lows. TLDR: NDX ABC CORRECTIVE WAVE UP BEFORE NEW LOWS; NDX WILL MAKE LOWER HIGHS AND SPX NEW HIGHS WILL CONFIRM THIS A MARKET TOP
NASDAQ:NDX
by justaturboman44
4
NAS100 │ 9 - 13 September 2024 - Daily timeframe Swing structure remains bullish but as anticipated internal structure is pulling back to an origin demand zone. The question that remains now is whether this demand zone will actually hold price and eventually drive the market higher of is this the start of a bearish trend on NASDAQ? · Bullish bias - Four-hour timeframe The swing structure is bullish and internal is bearish, assuming that the internal is only facilitating for a pullback and we are approaching an area where the bulls might step in. · Bullish bias - 15-minute timeframe All 15m structure are aligned with the 4h internal structure, further emphasizing the bearish price action that is presumably facilitating the daily internal and 4h swing pullback. At the time of this analysis we have not yet tapped into a significant demand level and should we, for whatever reason, see a reversal it would be at the break of 18516.3. · Bearish bias How do I come to a bias conclusion? I look at the swing structure; if it is bearish, I conclude a bearish bias ©Austin Palmer for FONOS Fx, 2024.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Austin_Palmer
US100 | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; * Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards) * Weekend Crypto Session # Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Weekly Time Frame - General Trend - Measurement on Session * Support & Resistance * Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead # Position & Risk Reward | Daily Time Frame - Measurement on Session * Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618 * Extension | 0.786 & 1 Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand; Overall Consensus | Neutral
CAPITALCOM:US100
by P-Ment4U
3