US30 - medium to long term opportunity setting upHello,
The US30 futures are forming a bullish pattern, signaling potential upside. The MACD and moving averages align, presenting a compelling opportunity for buyers.
Investors should note President Trump's aggressive push for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to cut interest rates, including threats to dismiss him if he resists. While this rhetoric could unsettle markets, we believe Trump is unlikely to follow through, as markets have likely found a bottom and he would avoid actions that could trigger a downturn.
Technical analysis supports early entry for bold investors, with a stop-loss placed below the recent low. Proceed with caution and good luck.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DOW trade ideas
US30 bearish play setting upThe hourly chart is in a downtrend, and we are at that trend line.
On the 15m chart, the momentum of buyers has slowed down to the point where sellers hit it hard as shown by the black arrow.
We want to see the "Last strong buyer" failing to make a new high (or creating a fake high), retesting the horizontal and price falling out of bed.
Waiting for the retest is best but price might not retest before dropping.
US30 Approaching Key ResistanceโPotential Reversal Setup in Play๐ง Chart Overview
Asset: US30 (likely the Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Timeframe: Appears to be 1H or 2H
Indicators:
EMA 50 (Red): 40,119.5
EMA 200 (Blue): 39,897.3
Price at time of chart: Around 40,503
๐ Key Technical Levels
๐ด Resistance Zone
Range: ~40,750 to 40,850
Price has tested this level multiple times and is currently hovering near it.
The resistance is holding, and no strong breakout has occurred.
๐ฆ Support / Focus Zone
Range: ~39,200 to 39,600
Marked as the โFOCUS POINTโ โ likely the expected target on a breakdown.
EMAs Insight:
Price is above both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, suggesting short-term bullishness.
However, since itโs stalling at resistance, it could flip bearish on rejection.
๐งญ Price Action Narrative
The chart suggests a potential fakeout above resistance, followed by a sharp rejection.
The path drawn shows a short-term dip, targeting the FOCUS POINT (support zone).
Rejection at resistance aligns with typical distribution behavior.
๐ Trade Idea (Bearish Bias)
Entry Idea: Short near or just above the resistance level (~40,800)
Target: 39,400 zone
Stop-Loss: Above the resistance level (~40,900+)
Risk/Reward: Favorable if price fails to break above resistance convincingly
๐ Bias: Bearish Reversal
Unless price breaks and closes above resistance with strong momentum, the chart favors a pullback scenario.
US30 sellI believe US30 is heading lower for numerous reasons:
- It is really hard to deduce anything from price action on the 3 month and monthly timeframe.
- However, price on the weekly did hit a major liquidity level at 37,250 and rejected it with a lot of bullish orders.
- 40,750 is a liquidity level that has price has failed to close above in two consecutive weeks.
- Moreover, the two previous weeks, price has rejected 40,750 by forming a lower low the next week, which indicates that price is bearish.
- Last week, we saw a bearish candlestick closure on the weekly, which indicates that there is not enough momentum/buy orders for price to go higher.
- Hence, the weekly timeframe is bearish
- The daily timeframe confirms the weekly bias with a number of confluences.
- First of all, we see that price took a lot of buy orders at 37,250 and formed a double bottom.
- Price peaked at 40,750 and the level has been rejected twice with a double top.
-What confirms my bearish bias is that price is that we saw a candlestick closure below 39,560 (this is a region where we see a daily body closure).
- On the daily, price is hence bearish and the next liquidity points are at 38,250 and at 37,500.
- I believe that price is headed to those regions
- On the 4 hour timeframe, we see that price has already formed a textbook sell setup.
- Price collected sell orders at 40,000 on Thursday.
- Price then retraced from the 39,000 level and collected more sell orders at 39,400.
- My 4H take profit is at 38,650.
- Until then, my job is to monitor whether price will fail to reach that target and collect more sell orders at 39,400 or at 39,000.
DETAIL ANALYSIS OF US30 US30 has reversed from bullish to bearish on daily timeframe However on monthly timeframe the long term Bullish trend is intact on Monthly timeframe applying SMC i have marked the chart and possible scenario is of downward likely market will take on the previous low and apparently on daily time frame its probably 4th wave low is yet to be identified therefore will look for selling with stop above 41000
Note: Only for educational purpose not a financial advice
Drop followed followed by long.Dow Jones is currently attempting to continue its bullish resurgence, but has failed to do so by failing to stabilise above 40,883. As long as price action is under the 40k mark, the points may likely retest the previous support barriers, situated between 39,500 and 38,750, as likely bullish catalysts for a long opportunity. However, by failing to go down, breaking, and stabilising above 40,883, the price may continue going up, targeting 42,600 and 42,000.
DOW/US30 - what the expectation from the marketTeam, last week we kill the market
I have prepare for the next week strategy
We currently have some small volume position long at this stage
and will add more if the market down to next level,
However, we expect some recovery at this stage.
Strategy:
TARGET 1 - 39266-39335
TARGET 2 - 39375-39467
TARGET 3 at 39600-39929
TARGET 4 at 40.400-41400 - run with mini volume and hold.
US30 Outlook on 4H TF - LONG US30 - Bullish Wave 5 Push to 42,000 ๐
We're still in a Wave 4 correction on the daily, but price just retested Wave 4 lows at 38,900 area and held (for now). Now forming a double bottom on the 4H, and Wave 1 is starting on the 1H.
Looking for a Wave 5 push up toward 42,000 before a major selloff.
Key Levels:
๐น Support: 38,970
๐น TP Zones: 40,000 โ 41,000 โ 42,000
๐ป Short Bias kicks in after Wave 5 completes (Target: 38,100-38,200)
Plan: Buy dips while above 38,900, scale out near 42K, watch for reversal confirmation.
US30 Weekly: Support Under Threat - Prepare for More Downside?US30 Weekly Analysis - Potential Trading Setup
Technical Outlook โ 21 April 2025
Current Market Condition:
US30 on the weekly timeframe is trading within a long-term ascending channel. Price recently experienced a sharp correction, breaking below the middle of the channel and is now testing a key support zone.
Potential Trading Setup:
Potential Reversal/Long Setup (Primary Scenario):
Entry: Look for strong bullish reversal signals within the current support zone (around 37,500 - 38,500). This could include bullish candlestick patterns on the weekly or daily timeframe, coupled with the Stochastic indicator showing a bullish divergence or crossing up from oversold territory.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the low of the reversal signal or below the lower boundary of the support zone (below 37,500).
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: The middle of the ascending channel (around 40,500 - 41,000).
TP2: The upper trendline of the ascending channel (currently around 44,000 - 45,000, and rising over time).
Bearish Continuation Setup (Secondary Scenario):
Entry: If bullish reversal signals fail to materialize and the price breaks decisively below the current support zone (below 37,500), look for short entry opportunities. The Stochastic indicator confirming downward momentum would add confluence to this setup.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the high of the breakdown candle or above the broken support zone.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: The next significant support level around 34,000 - 35,000.
TP2: The lower boundary of the ascending channel (currently around 32,000 - 33,000, and rising over time).
Important Considerations:
Weekly Timeframe Significance: Trading setups on the weekly chart require patience and can take time to play out.
Confirmation is Crucial: Wait for clear confirmation signals, including price action and signals from the Stochastic indicator, before entering any trades.
Channel Dynamics: The ascending channel trendlines are dynamic and will change over time.
Risk Management: Employ appropriate position sizing and always use stop-loss orders.
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Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
US30 Trade Update โ 21/04/2025 ๐จ US30 Trade Update โ 21/04/2025 ๐จ
๐ US30 Continues Downtrend!
The Dow Jones remains under heavy pressure after rejecting 40,701 resistance last week. Price is now grinding below EMAs with a bearish structure and eyeing the next support at 38,400.
๐ Key Observations:
โ Strong rejection from 40,701
๐ EMA 8/21 crossover remains bearish
๐ป Price consolidating near 38,800
โ ๏ธ If 38,400 breaks โ eyes on 36,743 next major support
๐ฏ Trade Plan:
๐ป Short below 38,400 โ Target 36,743
๐น Long only if price flips 39,800 and holds
๐งจ Bearish bias intact unless bulls reclaim trend control
๐ No signs of reversal yet. Trend favors sellers โ watch 38,400 for breakout or bounce.
Dow Jones Update: Downside Pressure PersistsI currently estimate that the Dow Jones is in the early stage of wave B of wave (B), as indicated by the black label. This suggests that the index may continue its correction, potentially testing the 38,200โ39,186 area before rebounding to challenge the resistance zone around 40,791 and possibly filling the gap between 41,173 and 41,629.
However, under the more bearish scenario (red label), the selling pressure on the Dow Jones remains significant, which may result in the formation of wave , leading to a deeper correction below the 36,611 level.
US30 โ Monthly Market Structure Analysis (April 2025) โ OLHC BUY
As we analyze the monthly structure of the US30 index for April 2025, several key technical developments and strategic insights are worth noting:
1. Monthly Low Established:
The price action for this month has thus far established a significant low, indicating a potential bottoming pattern that may signal the beginning of a bullish move.
2. Key Support Level and First Rejection:
A strong bullish rejection was observed at the 37,000 level, which has proven to be a substantial support zone. This level held firmly, suggesting strong buyer interest and institutional accumulation.
3.Target Projection:
My primary take-profit target for this upward move is projected at **41,834.42** , which aligns with higher timeframe resistance and Fibonacci extension levels. This offers a favorable risk-to-reward scenario for long entries.
4. Waiting for Confirmation:
At present, I am closely monitoring price behavior near a **minor support zone**, where I anticipate another rejection that could provide the ideal entry signal for initiating buy positions. Patience remains key as we await further confirmation.
5. Strategic Considerations:
- Risk Management: Traders are advised to apply proper risk management protocols. Avoid over-leveraging, and ensure your trade size is appropriate to your account equity.
- Discipline: Do not rush into trades. Wait for solid confirmation signals, such as bullish candlestick patterns or momentum shifts, before committing capital.
- Market Conditions: Be aware of upcoming economic events or fundamental news that may impact US indices, and adjust your strategy accordingly.
6. Community Engagement:
If you found this analysis insightful and aligned with your trading view, feel free to like, share, and follow for more structured market updates and trading ideas.
Letโs trade smart, stay patient, and manage risk with precision. All the best this month!