US100 - Corrective Pullback into FVG + Golden Pocket setup?This 1H Nasdaq chart paints a classic structure of retracement within a bullish leg, offering potential for continuation after a clean corrective move into inefficiency. It's all about balance restoration before the next impulse.
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1. Resistance Reaction & Local Distribution
Price faced strong rejection at a clearly defined Resistance Zone , marking a point of supply where sellers stepped in with aggression.
- The sharp rejection indicates profit-taking from earlier longs or a short-term distribution zone.
- Structure is transitioning from impulsive to corrective, suggesting a pullback is unfolding rather than a trend reversal (at least for now).
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2. Short-Term Demand Zone Holding Price (Gray Box)
Before reaching deeper liquidity, price is hovering above a local demand block —a previously unmitigated consolidation that supported the last push up.
- This gray zone may provide temporary support, but lacks depth of imbalance.
- It's a weak floor, and smart money typically seeks deeper fills for proper re-accumulation.
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3. Fair Value Gap Below (Primary Draw on Liquidity)
The key area of interest lies just below, where a clean Fair Value Gap (FVG) is formed. This imbalance represents a void in price action where buy-side inefficiency remains.
- Aligned with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement range (confluence entry).
- Price is likely to seek this inefficiency for proper rebalancing.
- It’s not just a “fill the gap” play—it’s a liquidity grab where smart money is most likely waiting.
This zone is ideal for reaccumulation before resuming the move higher.
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4. Internal Structure Suggests Bullish Intent After Fill
Price is forecasted to:
- Step 1: Break beneath the short-term demand to draw in liquidity
- Step 2: Tag the FVG zone, tapping into fresh demand
- Step 3: Shift structure via higher low formation and breakout
This is the behavior of an engineered retracement—not panic selling.
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5. Macro Bias Still Bullish – Controlled Pullback
While the short-term price action looks bearish, the context remains supportive of upward continuation:
- No signs of aggressive selling below structure
- Current flow is corrective, not distributive
- FVG zone is strategically placed in alignment with optimal trade entry levels (OTE)
If this zone holds, expect a return to bullish expansion targeting inefficiencies left behind on the push down.
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Conclusion:
This setup is textbook:
- Efficient rejection at resistance
- Controlled retracement into FVG with Fibonacci confluence
- Potential structural shift post-rebalance
Watch for bullish intent to return once the imbalance is filled. Until then, this is not a breakdown—it's a setup.
NASDAQ.USD.1.IEN trade ideas
Ultimate Guide to Master ICT KillzonesWhy Timing Matters Just as Much as Price
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies are built on the idea that markets are manipulated by large players with precision. While most traders obsess over price levels, entry models, and liquidity zones, many fail to realize that none of those matter if they happen at the wrong time. Time is not an afterthought, it's a core part of the edge.
Price can show you where the move might happen, but time shows you when smart money is most likely to act. That window of action is what ICT calls the killzone.
What Are Killzones?
Killzones are specific time periods in the trading day when smart money typically executes large moves. These sessions have predictable volatility and institutional order flow. They are not just random hours, they coincide with major session opens and overlaps.
The most relevant killzones are:
London Killzone (LKO), 2 AM to 5 AM EST
New York Killzone (NYKO), 7 AM to 10 AM EST
New York Lunch/Dead Zone, 11:30 AM to 1 PM EST (low probability, often reversal traps)
Each killzone offers unique opportunities depending on how liquidity has been engineered prior. ICT-style setups are most reliable when they form within, or directly in anticipation of, these windows.
The Trap Before the Real Move
Smart money loves to trap retail traders. This trap usually happens just before or early in a killzone. For example, if price takes out a key high at 2:30 AM EST (London open), many retail traders see a breakout. But those in tune with SMC see it as a classic liquidity raid, bait before the reversal.
Once that external liquidity is taken, smart money shows its hand with displacement, a sudden, aggressive move in the opposite direction. This typically forms a clean imbalance (Fair Value Gap) or a breaker block. That’s your cue.
If the price returns to that level within the killzone, that’s the optimal entry window.
Confluence is King: Time, Liquidity, and Structure
The most reliable SMC setups happen when:
Liquidity is swept early into a killzone
Displacement confirms the real direction during the killzone
Entry happens via return to an FVG or OB created within that same session
The setup might still look right if it forms outside these windows, but without proper timing, it’s often just noise or engineered liquidity to trap impatient traders.
Real-World Example: NY Killzone Short
NY, At 8:30 AM EST, price runs above the Asian highs, sweeping liquidity
Displacement, Sharp bearish move breaks structure to the downside at 8:45 AM
Entry, Price retraces into the 5M FVG at 9:10 AM
Result, Clean reversal into a nice profit trageting liquidity, all within the NY session
Outside of this killzone structure, the same setup likely would have chopped or failed.
Common Mistakes Traders Make With Time
Chasing price outside of killzones, Setup might look good, but volume is thin and no follow-through comes
Assuming all killzones are equal, London setups are often cleaner in structure, while NY has more manipulation around news
Forcing trades in NY lunch, Midday reversals do happen, but they’re lower probability. If you're not already in a position by 11 AM EST, it's often best to wait for the next day
The Discipline Edge
Most traders overtrade not because they lack setups, but because they don’t filter based on time. By only trading when price interacts with your levels during active killzones, you immediately reduce the number of bad trades and increase your focus on meaningful opportunities.
Good setups are rare. Good setups in the right timing window are even rarer. That’s where consistency comes from.
Final Thoughts
Time is not optional. In SMC and ICT, it’s not enough to have the level, you need the timing. Killzones are your filter, your edge, and your context for every trade.
Once you understand how time and price move together, and stop treating every moment on the chart equally, your trading will start to reflect the true flow of smart money.
Wait for time, wait for price, then strike.
___________________________________
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Nasdaq 100 - Bull trap print begins circa April 30thThe Nasdaq 100 index is seriously oversold as market participants are gripped by fear. Understandable… however, markets do not crash in fear. Instead the opposite happens, counterintuitive as that sounds.
The Index shall continue display volatility until sellers are exhausted, which is around April 30th when the bottom shall print. So yeah, this week is probably going to suck what life remains of your account. However selling now is not in your best interest, I would argue the opposite. Let me explain why.
On the above daily chart the Nasdaq 100 death cross approaches, forecast to print on April 30th (the dotted lines). The death cross (On the Nasdaq 100 only) is defined as the 65 day Simple Moving average (blue line) crossing down the 240-day SMA with price action under the 240-day SMA.
Now the date has been changing a lot with recent volatility, to counter that behaviour the forecast for the cross uses the "Box Jenkins" forecast method (Ww is a data scientist and engineer specialising in probability theory and stochastic processes, will be adding the tool to my collection of scripts shortly!). Read more about Box Jenkins method here:
www.investopedia.com
Now I’m not normally a fan of moving averages, but on "looking left"… you’ll find me on the front row seat. I tell you all that to tell you this, look left. Look left at past death crosses using this method:
17% rally from death cross on March 15th, 2022
22% rally from death cross on December 18th, 2018
17% rally from death cross on February 16th, 2016
You get the picture. This behaviour continues to repeat with the previous ten death crosses until the print on October 12th, 2000, where the bull trap was followed by a market crash of 80%.
In terms of probability there is a 90% chance the death cross shall result in a positive rally. However, it is my guess many readers will place more weight on the 10% chance of a crash. That’s emotion, not reason! In fact if you scan over many of the published ideas on tradingview you'll notice the bearish slant is strong.
Is this time is different?
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There are no certainties, only probabilities. Price action could continue selling off following the cross to reach new lows. That said, this idea is to forecast a bull trap, not a continuation in the market uptrend. The probability favouring a rally is incredibly high. After that, not so good. Not good at all.
Price action forecast on rally
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Approximately 19.2 to 19.5k
Conclusions
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The market is oversold as emotions run high. History tells us It is unlikely the correction ramps up in momentum after the cross prints. However the cross can indicate the index may be about to enter a bear market should price action reject the 50-day SMA, which it is very likely. That’s for the next post!
Ww
Potential bullish rise?USTEC has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the overlap resistance.
Pivot: 18,950.55
1st Support: 18,467.08
1st Resistance: 20,258.77
1st Resistance: 34.50
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NASDAQ Recovery Looks Fragile Below 20,500After the steep drop to 16,300, NAS100 started to recover, forming a higher low and managing to break back above the falling trendline drawn from the all-time high (ATH).
While these are positive developments, in my opinion, the trend is likely to reverse to the downside soon.
Technically, the index is now entering a heavy resistance zone, marked by:
• The golden sell zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,
• Psychological resistance at 20,000,
• Major horizontal resistance around 20,500.
As long as the price remains below 20,500, I favor short trades, targeting a potential drop to at least 18,000
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
NAS100USD: Institutional Selling Initiated at Premium LevelsGreetings Traders,
Today on NAS100USD, the market is currently operating within a clear bearish institutional order flow. In alignment with this directional bias, we are seeking selling opportunities supported by several key confluences.
Key Observations:
1. Liquidity Sweep at Premium Pricing:
Price has retraced deeply into a premium zone, sweeping the buy stops above a recent swing high. This suggests smart money is executing sell-side order pairing at extreme premium levels, utilizing retail liquidity for institutional distribution. When this occurs, price typically seeks rebalancing at fair value zones and continues toward discount levels.
2. Resistance at Fair Value Gap:
Following the liquidity sweep, price encountered resistance at a previously identified fair value gap (FVG). This FVG has held effectively, reinforcing the bearish outlook and acting as a high-probability rejection zone.
3. Market Structure Shift (MSS):
The market has now confirmed a bearish market structure shift, further validating the downside bias. This shift positions us to anticipate a continuation move.
4. Mitigation Block as Entry Zone:
We are currently watching a mitigation block for potential re-entries. These blocks represent zones where smart money mitigates previous long positions and introduces new short positions in alignment with the prevailing trend. If confirmed, they offer a strategic point to enter short trades.
Trading Plan:
Monitor the mitigation block for confirmation and look to enter with the broader institutional trend. Targets will include fair value regions and deeper liquidity pools at discount prices.
Remain patient and disciplined, and always ensure your analysis aligns with your trading plan.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NAS100 Buy Trade Analysis (4H Timeframe)Entered a buy position on NAS100 after price retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which also aligns perfectly with the ascending trendline support. This area has acted as a strong confluence zone, showing signs of a potential higher low (HL) formation on the 4H chart.
✅ Confluences supporting the trade:
Price bounced from the 0.618 Fib retracement.
Respecting the trendline support indicating bullish structure continuation.
Formation of Higher Low on both the 4H timeframe and also clearly visible on Daily and Weekly charts, indicating strong bullish momentum from a higher timeframe perspective.
RSI is near the oversold zone (~30), showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
🎯 Targets:
First TP around the 18,863 zone (previous resistance area).
Final TP in the region of 19,161–19,250, aligning with the 200 EMA and psychological resistance levels.
🛡️ Stop Loss: Placed below the trendline and previous swing low for protection in case of invalidation.
Nasdaq - Printing The Obvious Bottom!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) already finished the correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After we witnessed a minor "crash" of about -25% over the past couple of weeks, the bottom might be in on the Nasdaq. We simply saw another very bullish all time high break and retest and depite the possibility of a second retest, I am (still) extremely bullish at these levels.
Levels to watch: $17.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a selling opportunity around 19,400 zone, NASDAQ is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 19400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Gold Vs. Nasdaq, since 2017 Using momentum indicators, the Nasdaq is overbought and seems to be retreating a bit off of that region. Gold is continuing to move into the overbought region of momentum.
The two are following more of a correlation up until now. This current movement marks divergence, which is what is expected. This coincides with the expectation that Gold and equities will trend in opposite directions.
In other research, it is noted that when there is correlation followed by divergence, it is typically the equity which was over-extended and will retrace back against Gold's more gradual movement. Gold typically keeps pace with inflation.
NASDAQ ahead of the most critical Resistance test.Nasdaq (NDX) not only broke above the Lower Highs trend-line of its All Time High (ATH) last week but managed to break and turn the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) into Support.
It is now aiming for the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is the most crucial Resistance level of this recovery attempt and is what technically turns bearish trends into bullish if it turns into Support.
We expect a short-term rejection there, which should give a buy opportunity near the 4H MA200. Our Target for this is 20350 (Resistance 1).
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NAS100USD: Reclaimed Order Block Signals Further DownsideGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe a momentary shift into bearish institutional order flow, confirmed by the formation of successive lower lows. This structural development signals the potential for continued downside movement.
Key Observations:
Bearish Institutional Order Flow:
The consistent break of lows supports a bearish bias, providing a framework for seeking short opportunities in alignment with institutional intent.
Confluent Bearish Arrays:
Key bearish arrays—including the mitigation block and a reclaimed order block—are currently aligned. These zones, if respected, could serve as strong resistance and provide high-probability entry areas for short positions.
Trading Strategy:
Should price retrace into these arrays and provide confirmation, we can look to enter sell positions with the expectation of further downside aligned with the prevailing order flow.
Stay disciplined, remain patient, and trade only with confirmation.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Nas100 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
——————
💯 Main Focus: Bearish Breakout at 18700
We are watching this zone closely.
📌 If price breaks with high volume, it confirms Smart Money is in control, and a strong move may follow.
———
🔻 Every warrior needs a tribe.
Follow Hanzo. Support the path.
Analysis
👌 Bearish Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 18700
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 18400
👌 The Market Has Spoken – Are You Ready to Strike?
Bullish Continuation Setup Towards📈 US100 - Bullish Continuation Setup Towards 19,454.8 🚀
After a strong impulsive move, US100 is consolidating inside a rising channel, forming a classic bull flag structure. Price has respected multiple demand zones on the way up and currently sits just above the key support at 19,107.0. The bullish momentum is supported by a clean structure of higher highs and higher lows, and a breakout from the flag could trigger the next leg up toward the 138% Fibonacci extension level at 19,454.8.
As long as price holds above the 19,000–19,107 support zone, this scenario remains valid. Keep an eye on volume and a breakout candle for confirmation. 📊💥
NAS100USD: Will Price Fill the Gap?Greetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe that the market is currently operating within a broader bullish institutional order flow. However, recent price action has left behind an inefficiency—a gap that may serve as a short-term draw on liquidity.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
1. Gap in Price – Inefficiency Identified:
Price has created an imbalance that is yet to be filled. Typically, such inefficiencies act as magnets for price, drawing it back before resuming its primary trend. In this case, the gap may be partially filled as the market seeks equilibrium.
2. Draw on Liquidity – Last Point of Efficiency:
The last point of efficiency below current price levels may serve as the draw on liquidity. This level could attract price action as institutions look to rebalance orders and facilitate continuation.
3. Active Order Block – Potential Entry Zone:
Price is currently testing a bearish order block. Upon confirmation, this area may offer a short-term selling opportunity with the objective of targeting the liquidity pool and the inefficiency below.
TRADING PLAN:
Entry Consideration:
Look for bearish confirmation within the current order block zone before entering. The goal is to trade the short-term retracement within a bullish environment.
Profit Targets:
Target the liquidity pool and the unfilled gap near the last point of efficiency as short-term objectives.
Remain diligent, patient, and aligned with your trading plan. Always conduct your own analysis to ensure any setup is in harmony with your strategy and risk tolerance.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NAS100USD: Bullish Scalping Opportunity Within Fair Value GapGreetings Traders,
On NAS100USD, the current market structure is clearly bullish. To capitalize on this momentum, we aim to align our intraday opportunities with the prevailing trend.
At present, price has retraced into a fair value gap (FVG), presenting a potential high-probability zone for a bullish reaction. Upon receiving confirmation, this setup offers a favorable opportunity to enter long positions, with the objective of targeting the liquidity pool situated above.
Key Focus:
Structure: Bullish
Entry Zone: Fair Value Gap (retracement)
Target: Overhead liquidity pool
As always, ensure confirmation before executing any trades, and remain disciplined in managing your risk.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
How important is the time frame when you investWe’ve been discussing the possibility of a recession in the US for some time now, along with tariffs and the impact of Trump’s policies. This has led to declines of up to 25% in the US NASDAQ index, sparking panic among many investors. When investing for the long term, it’s important to be aware of where we are within the same time frame as our investment horizon—a 25% drop in the short term doesn’t necessarily have to be a concern for long-term investors.
In this case, we can see that the NASDAQ has established a massive uptrend over the years. As long as the main trend levels remain intact, we can’t even say the market is moving sideways. The market has provided one of the best opportunities to enter the NASDAQ, bouncing right off previous highs and demonstrating the strength of the trend.
By buying in the previous highs or near the long term trendline, means a very low risk with returns up to 30%.