NDX A lot of ups and downs, seems like FOMC all over again, the market is sort of slow today however I’m playing it safe, TP1 is now 21500 that’s 50% of yesterdays daily candle
🧠 Macro Watch Update – May 30, 2025 | 10:10 EST / 15:10 GMT The second wave of US economic data has landed, offering deeper insight into consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and market positioning. Here's what traders across indices, commodities, FX, and crypto need to know:
🔍 Key Data – Round Two: 📊 Chicago PMI: 40.5 vs 45 forecast → ❌ Miss
Manufacturing contraction deeper than expected. Signals industrial stress and regional weakness.
💬 Michigan Consumer + Inflation (Final):
Consumer Expectations: ✅ 47.9 (Above forecast)
Consumer Sentiment: ✅ 52.2 (Matches prior)
Current Conditions: ✅ 58.9 (Slight beat)
1-Year Inflation Expectations: ✅ 6.6% vs 7.3% forecast
5-Year Inflation Expectations: ✅ 4.2% vs 4.6% forecast
🧩 Interpretation: ✅ Consumers feeling modestly better, both short- and long-term ✅ Long-run inflation expectations are easing — big win for the Fed ❌ But regional manufacturing remains under pressure
🛡️ Sector Breakdown & Trade Lens 📊 Indices: Still rangebound. Data validates the soft-landing narrative but not enough for breakout. Let price structure lead.
🧬 Tech (XLK, SMH): Nvidia enthusiasm cooling. Minor profit-taking expected. Watch dips in NVDA, MSFT, AAPL for structure re-entry.
📦 Consumer (XLY, XLP): Strong income vs weak spending = mixed signals. Caution in discretionary. Staples showing relative strength.
🏦 Financials (XLF): Sticky yields + no recession panic = decent backdrop for banks. But regional risk caps upside.
🛢️ Commodities: Oil remains range-bound. Gold/Silver steady with no clear macro catalyst short-term.
💱 FX: USD grinding higher. Income strength supports DXY, but Fed pivot talk could temper upside. Watch EUR/USD reactions.
₿ Crypto: BTC holding structure. No fuel for breakout, but no breakdown risk either. Correlated to tech sentiment.
📌 Strategic Takeaway: This is validation data, not breakout data. The Fed can relax slightly — but markets still demand structure and confirmation.
🧭 Titan Mindset Reminder: 🔹 Let the structure lead the signal 🔹 Soft-landing narrative intact, but momentum cooling 🔹 Mind the gap between industrials and consumer trends