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XRPUSD Hey everyone, heads up—this Friday, March 21, is the third Friday of the month and a Quadruple Witching day, which means we’re likely to see some big SPX market volatility. It’s when equity options, index options, futures, and more all expire at once, so things can get wild. Historically, the S&P 500 has only a 38.1% chance of climbing on this day, which is less than a coin toss—not exactly a great bet for gains. The signals are mixed, with no clear Bull or Bear trend. On the brighter side, the NASDAQ has been up 7 out of the last 10 Quadruple Witching days, so tech stocks might have a better shot at climbing. Just a heads-up to be cautious and keep an eye on your portfolios!
📅 Market Probability Update based on historical data: March 17 - 21 SPX
☘️ Monday, March 17 – 52.4% chance of climbing → St. Patrick’s Day and the Monday before March quad witching. Historically, the Dow has been up 26 of the last 37 times.
📈 Tuesday, March 18 – 66.7% chance of climbing → A significantly high probability, suggesting a possible uptrend.
📈 Wednesday, March 19 – 61.9% chance of climbing → Typically rated as a bull day, increasing the likelihood of a move up.
⚖️ Thursday, March 20 – 52.4% chance of climbing → Similar to Monday, a coin toss.
📉 Friday, March 21 – 38.1% chance of climbing → Doesn’t look great as it’s March quad witching day. Historically mixed over the last 30 years, but NASDAQ has been up 7 of the last 10 times.
XRPUSD and BTCUSD tend to follow. Since crypto is open 24/7, it often reacts sooner, before the markets open.
SPX DOW DROPS 400 POINTS AS MARKET SELL-OFF GAINS STEAM ON RECESSION FEARS
Stocks dropped on Monday as the selling pressures that dragged Wall Street last week persisted, while investors braced for a slew of economic data reports this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 400 points, or about 1%.
NDXNASDAQ Nasdaq not looking good, price action has been bad. Bounced off 200 day SMA today and closed about 2.3% above 200 day and 6.5% under 50 day SMA. I am sticking to the fact that the Nasdaq will underperform the Dow this year. Money is coming out of growth, like NVDA, PLTR, AMZN, GOGL since end of January/beginning of February and going into value. Nasdaq will end the year at around 17,000. Still ~15+20% left to the downside. Dow will most likely finish flat or up or down very small amount. +/- 2% is my guess MACD (12,26) is -179 RSI (14) is 45 STOCHASTICS (9,6) is almost 97 STOCHASTIC RSI is 100 Williams%R is -2.07 14 Period ATR is 174.
All these indicators are pointing to an overbought volatile market that is likely to reverse a 5 year bullish trend.
NASDAQ Nasdaq not looking to hot. Bounced off 200 day SMA today and closed about 2.3% above 200 day and 6.5% under 50 day SMA. I am sticking to the fact that the Nasdaq will underperform the Dow this year. Money is coming out of growth, like NVDA, PLTR, AMZN, GOGL since end of January/beginning of February and going into value. MACD (12,26) is -179 RSI (14) is 45 STOCHASTICS (9,6) is almost 97 STOCHASTIC RSI is 100 Williams%R is -2.07 14 Period ATR is 174.
All these indicators are pointing to an overbought volatile market that is likely to reverse a 5 year bullish trend.