Next week's gold trend trading strategy:
Analysis of gold market trends:
The gold market showed an extremely complex trend this week. Since the plunge from the high of $2,950 last week, the market has repeatedly fallen and rebounded. It is worth noting that the gold price in the US market bottomed out and rose sharply on Friday. The US market also rose sharply after Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The US market also rose slightly on Thursday, and the US market rose strongly again yesterday. In this series of fluctuations, each time the key position is touched, it can trigger a rebound to varying degrees, which fully demonstrates the tenacious resistance of the bulls.
From the analysis of the market, the gold price experienced a sharp drop on Friday, and then rebounded strongly. The daily line finally closed with a medium-sized Yin line with a lower shadow of nearly 30 US dollars. In terms of the weekly line, it presents a large Yin line pattern, and a bearish engulfing pattern appears. A Yin line directly engulfs the previous two Yang lines, and successfully ends the nine-week continuous Yang trend. The monthly line is a medium Yang line, but the upper shadow is as long as 97 US dollars.
At present, the prospect of the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks is overshadowed, and the subsequent trends have attracted much attention. This is also one of the important driving factors for the rise in gold prices at the end of Friday. Looking ahead to next week, the United States will release non-agricultural data, and the eurozone will also announce interest rate decisions. In addition, US manufacturing data and the Federal Reserve Beige Book will also be released one after another, all of which will have a significant impact on the gold market.
After a sharp drop in gold this week, there is a need for a rebound correction in the short term. From the monthly line, the longer upper shadow line indicates that there may be a move to fill the upper shadow line in the early stage of the decline. The bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly line and the closing of the negative line after nine consecutive weeks of gains have significantly suppressed the bulls. However, the long lower shadow of the daily line on Friday shows that there is strong support below. On the 4-hour chart, after a short-term sharp drop, it has shown a serious oversold signal, so it is bound to usher in a rebound correction. The 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average, which were originally used as support, have turned into pressure points for subsequent rebounds after being broken. It is expected that gold prices will face downward pressure again when they rebound and test these two moving averages.
Taking all factors into consideration, the impact of Trump's tariffs has been basically digested. In the absence of new tariff news, the relevant tariff news is likely to be regarded as a factor that induces more buying. Next, the focus will be on whether there will be any new news from the U.S.-led Russia-Ukraine peace talks over the weekend, as well as the release of U.S. non-agricultural data. From a technical perspective, gold is expected to rebound before the $2835-2840 range is broken next week. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not deteriorate further, the overall trend of gold is expected to be mainly high and then fall, and the high-level short-selling strategy can continue to be adopted in terms of operation. However, it should be noted that if the situation between Russia and Ukraine deteriorates further, the market trend may change significantly. The upper resistance levels are $2880-2885, $2890-2895, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average; the lower support levels are $2835-2840, $2805-2810, and $2785-2770.
