XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Defend $2,900 – Next Move AheadHello traders! Today, we’re going to break down the XAU/USD (Gold) 4-hour chart using a combination of price action and key indicators. Let’s dive straight in and see what’s happening in the markets.
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Looking at the bigger picture, Gold has been in a strong uptrend since late January, with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The price has been respecting the 34 EMA (gray line) as dynamic support, but recently, it has dipped below it and tested the 89 EMA (yellow line) – a key area of interest.
💡 Key observation:
The trend remains bullish, but the recent pullback shows signs of short-term weakness.
Price action indicates a retest of the 89 EMA, which is acting as a key support zone around $2,899 – $2,900.
The 200 EMA (red line) at $2,834 remains a critical long-term support.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels
📍 Resistance Levels:
$2,928 – $2,930 (Near-term resistance at 34 EMA) → If price breaks above this, it could resume the uptrend.
$2,960 (Recent swing high) → The next key upside target.
📍 Support Levels:
$2,899 – $2,900 (89 EMA Support) → Bulls need to defend this level to maintain the trend.
$2,835 – $2,840 (200 EMA Support) → A deeper pullback could bring price to this zone.
3. Price Action Insights
Now, let’s analyze the candlestick behavior at these key levels:
Rejection wick at the 89 EMA → Indicates buyers stepping in.
Bearish momentum before the bounce → Suggests profit-taking or early short-sellers.
Volume spike on the recent dip → Possible liquidity grab before the next move.
💡 What this means: If price stays above the 89 EMA and breaks the 34 EMA, we could see a bullish continuation. However, a sustained break below $2,899 might lead to a deeper pullback.
4. Trading Strategy Ideas
✅ Trend-Following Buy Setup (Higher Probability)
🔹 Entry: Look for a bullish confirmation around the 89 EMA ($2,900 zone)
🔹 Stop Loss: Below recent lows ($2,890)
🔹 Target 1: $2,928 – $2,930 (Near-term resistance)
🔹 Target 2: $2,960 (Swing high)
📌 Confirmation Needed: Bullish engulfing candle or strong push off the 89 EMA.
❌ Short-term Countertrend Sell Setup (Riskier Play)
🔹 Entry: If price rejects the 34 EMA ($2,928 – $2,930)
🔹 Stop Loss: Above recent highs ($2,935)
🔹 Target: $2,900 (89 EMA)
📌 Key Condition: Need to see a clear rejection candle with strong selling pressure.
5. Final Thoughts & Risk Management
Bullish bias remains intact as long as price holds above the 89 EMA ($2,900 zone).
A break above $2,930 signals trend continuation.
A break below $2,899 could open the door for a deeper correction.
Always wait for confirmation and use proper risk management (no overleveraging!).
🚀 Actionable Plan:
If price holds above $2,900 and reclaims $2,930, buy the dips with a target of $2,960+. But if it struggles at resistance, be prepared for a pullback!
That’s it for today’s analysis. Trade safe and let the market come to you!
🔥 If you found this helpful, don’t forget to stay tuned for more updates!
