Some history....GOLD HISTORY:
1970 TO 1980:
Gold has a strong bubble rise that falls 50% when it breaks.
2001 to 2011:
10 year up trend
Gold rises further with virtually no setbacks until 1919, but then collapses to $1019.
2015 to 2025:
10 year up trend still at the moment.
The gold price has increased from $1019 in December 2015 to well over $3155 today without serious dips or pullbacks. It is easy to see why this attracts investors, especially when compared to the turbulence in the stock market over the same period of time. It is also easy to see why people might expect that gold will continue to rise after watching it gain consistently for well over a decade.
However, history shows that asset prices cannot continue to go up indefinitely. There are always pull backs, crashes, and bear markets. The last time this happened to gold is a distant memory, but we all remember recent examples such as the tech stocks in the '90s and home prices in the '00s.
Now, lets see Elliot wave principle. When an extending wave 5 ends ( we are at one at the moment), we will see a swift correction down to sub wave 2 of this wave 5. So, the opportunity presents in two ways. First, we know it will be a rapid correction, which means we will not have to wait long for realizing our profits. Secondly, we know approximately how far the down move will likely travel.
At this moment , we are looking for the same escenario as 2008. Wave 3 travels 5.618 from wave 1, then wave 4 made a correction to the 38.2% zone, and finally wave 5 was equal to the entire previous 1-3 movement. This is what is happening right now as welll.
It is always easier to identify assets that are bubbling than to predict when the bubble will pop. Gold has much more downside than upside at this point, but this has been true for years without slowing price gains. Home prices and tech stocks also suggest that bubbles can exist for years even after objective measures (e.g. P/E ratios or rent to buy ratios) show that markets are out of equilibrium.
It is anybody's guess when gold will correct, but it is very likely that it will be ugly when it does.
