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AORD trade ideas

Australia - Watch for a Rally - Then Jump ShipLet's start with the broader picture first I understand the market looks horrific at press time, but the first thing that you must know about markets is this, nothing every goes in one direction forever, no matter how bad it seems. For context here are the three major US stock crashes. 2008 Crash 2000 Tech wreck 1929 Great Depression The second thing that you must know is that a market will TYPICALLY, not always, but typically will retrace 50% of the first wave before continuing lower, as seen in the above charts. In the most recent price action, this would entail a bounce to around 5400-5900, this is a prime opportunity to lighten exposure and prepare for another leg lower. Now, we may not get a bounce to the 50% fib level, but a move to the 38.2% is highly likely, at this point i would begin to lighten exposure and begin to buy shorting instruments, i.e. Puts. Now, where do i see the potential low? If the prior crashes throughout history are any gauge, then a top to bottom move of 50% is very likely, with the 1929 crash closer to 90%, i expect at worst we could see a middle ground, call it around 70%. This would be heavily dependent on Covid19 being far worse than governments are expecting, and a extended period of lock-down, which at press time, must not be discounted. That being said, the first targets are a "typical" 50% move from the peak, as you can see, this would erase ALL gains from the past 20 years, taking the index back to levels first reached in 2001. The third thing you must know about markets is that they go up in the long-term, emphasis on LONG-TERM. After the 2007 peak, it took over 4,300 DAYS to retread those levels. Do you have 12 years to wait? Bear in mind also, this index is not inflation adjusted, if one inflation adjusts the index we never made new highs, in other words, it has been over 13 years and we are yet to make new highs. What about Real Estate? I have long maintained the Australian real estate market is a bubble, ready to burst, with valuations in some areas exceeding over 10:1 income to Value ratios (IVR), this was inevitable and the bubble appears to be finally bursting, so no, your equity in your house will not save you. In fact, real estate priced in gold, is breaking out of a decade long slumber, what this means is that your home may gain nominal value, as governments feebly attempt to print enough money to cover the cracks, but your home will in reality be hemorrhaging real purchasing power. Welcome to the word of relative values, where your house can both go up AND down in value, simultaneously. In short, Australia has a weak economy, i have not even touched on the consumers and households overburdened with debt, the over reliance on the services industry as a primary source of GDP or the super fragile banking system, which by the way, have a huge number of "interest only loans" switching to principle and interest, over the next 18 months. Hmmm... wonder how the general households will deal with those. -TradingEdge Interest only loans: www.rba.gov.au
ASX:XAOShort
by Profit_Link
3
ASX XAO All Ordinaries to start an uptrend in AUGUSTASX:XAO dropped 39% from its high in Feb 2020 and has gained 15% in March 2020. With stimulus package announced earlier, Australian markets have rallied towards the month end. A clear uptrend will not be established until we have a month ( most likely AUGUST ) that closes above XAO 5400 which is the red Resistance line shown on chart. I do not see ASX close under 4400 again. Bar pattern in grey based on previous fractal / trend I can see develop in the next few months of volatility with ASX:XAO target of 6300 in March 2021 Blue vertical line in Oct 2021 is one of the fib time zones I will be watching for a likely pull back.
ASX:XAOLong
by secondavatar
3
ASX 200 Viral AttackThe ASX200 has been in freefall in 2020 with the rise of the Global Pandemic. The recent price bounce is off an area of support, and coincides with the US Presidents remarks on being back up and running by Easter 2020. Good luck with that. Price will rise (on this announcement) , but resistance may be felt at the prior swing low. Look to short this market, as Australia is still in the middle of this viral pickle, with lockdown measures escalating by the day. Enter - 5500 Target - 3900 Stop - 6000 RR = 3.....
ASX:XAOShort
by salsapete
Australian All Ordinaries To Hell ? There's no doubt the Australian economy and share market has seen impressive continued growth up until March 2020. It's clear from around 87 - March 2020 there market has been in a positive trend, with a rough support line, which is has only briefly dropped below in the 90's and notably in 2009 where it seems to hit a secondary support line in red. It's clear to me since 2009 the Australian sharemarket has recovered considerably but it has seemingly hugged the green support line for most of the last 10 or so years 3-4 times it has briefly tested and broken support, bouncing back and hugging the line - which seems to tell me that perhaps the economy hasn't been as strong as we've all thought. Now March 2020 changed everything with the AORD smashing through the green and the red support lines, now I think we're in unknown waters and what happens here really depends on what SCOMO and friends do that doesn't involve running off to Hawaii. The underlying realities are the Australian economy is built on a house of cards, specifically most peoples net worth is built into their overvalued homes, many which are highly leveraged in highly overvalued property markets in places in Sydney or Melbourne and then it gets worse in some of the regional cities. Many investors ploughed money into rental properties, driven by the governments generous CGT policies, cheap credit and strong rental market driven by higher property values. Next is the insane amount of personal debt that Australian have outside of mortgages, credit cards, store cards and a very good lifestyle to match. But once the economic screws start tightening and peoples money dries up, the ripple effect begin and many landlords may start noticing it in the next couple of weeks when their tenants can't afford to pay their rents. Now remember to Australia doesn't really produce much, outside of education, tourism, agriculture and some industrial most of the nations wealth comes from digging up shit from the ground, selling it China and buying it back as consumer products. Australia barely produces automobiles outside of niche things now, hardly produces any electronics, barely produces oil, has minimal refining capacity, etc if the nation can't export for whatever reason it'll go broke and it if can't import well there will be numerous supply shortages soon enough. I'm glad I sold up my interests in Australia, I don't have faith in the economy over the next couple of years at least, but I rather be VERY wrong and have it rubbed in my face.
INDEX:AORD
by th3gr3k0sLaV
All ordinaries closed above long term trend support.XAO closed just above long term trend support on a weekly. Just for some perspective, there was massive fiscal stimulus both by the FED and RBA in the latter part of the week. The ASX went down by -8% and finished the day up by +4%. That has never happened before. Ever. The pump conveniently occurred late on Friday, just before the close of weekly candlestick. There were some serious buying at those levels to prevent XAO closing the daily and the weekly above the major long term trend. Uncertainty prevails.
ASX:XAOShort
by ashainp
3