Weakening Target of Jakarta CompositeDisclaimer on,
This is a personal opinion, I am not responsible on your trading results.
Trade with your own risk.
For 6 months ( 13 May '22 - 06 Dec '22 ), the Composite Index moves in a huge sideways and forming the Bearish Pattern Flag, finally it decide one way to be chosen.
Unfortunately , its choice is to go down which is confirmed by broke the lower trendline and close below it ( 08 Dec '22 ). This action is confirming the Bearish Flag Pattern which is mean then the price will be going down.
I assume:
- The first target of declining is the 6440 - 6450 level (1.0 Fibonacci Extension ratios and classic Support area).
- The lowest target of this decline is the 6140 - 6180 level, because there is a gap that needs to be closed at the levels 6160 - 6180 which was formed on 30 sept '21 . This assumption is reinforced by the accumulation of 1,618 Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension ratios plus classic support area.
"Fasten your Seatbelt, and get ready to BOW"
Follow me for next update
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Best regards, @riandwip686
COMPOSITE trade ideas
Current Rise of JCI :I separate Big Caps stocks of JCI into 3 categories : Big Bank (BBCA, BBRI, BMRI and BBNI), Others (ASII and TLKM) and Consumer (INDF, ICBP and UNVR).
During 2022, the graphs is showing that Consumer stocks behave as Defensive Stocks that holds JCI during the bad time while Big Bank and Others lead JCI.
Recent rally of JCI shows that Big Bank and Others (once again) become leading stocks while Consumer become balancing stocks.
IHSG - 23 Mei 2022IHSG after set high record in 7354.08, got corrections by breaking ascending wedge pattern from 7246 and hit the TARGET 1 to 6596 (5% from body ascending wedge).
After that, breaking down the ascending channel and found support at 6511 (wave A), rebound to support that flip as resistance at 6957 (wave B). if we break support 6860, then probability the drop will continue to TARGET 2 to 6262 (wave c).
Big Caps of Composite MonitoringI monitor the big caps stocks that very much become the core of Composite.
The stocks are : BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, ASII, TLKM, INDF, ICBP and TLKM.
I excluded GOTO because it has no enough previous movement.
I didn't include HMSP and GGRM because of their low Free Market Weighted.
Banking Stock near its Support while ASII+TLKM is has room to fall before meeting their Support.
Consumer Stocks is still Uptrend and could provide cushion and relatively hold Composite for falling too deep.
Composite Indonesia Stock Bull or Bear?The Composite Stock Price Index is one of the stock market indexes used by the Indonesia Stock Exchange. we know now inflation in US already rise and is will be very bad news for any stock exchange, the US and FED will increse the cash rate, so its will be affect to the composite Indonesia. Indonesia Composite already hit all time high in this year after the covid issue make indonesia composite correction around 38%.
In my opinion and my analyze, Composite indonesia still strongly bull and if we use wave analyze, now indonesia composite already in way to wave 5, i hope in now its still not yet achieve, because the target when i use fibbonaci retracement combine with fibbonaci extension its will be hit around 7500-7700. and after hit that point will be correction, and in my view the correction will be hit until around 6290-6300.
If you have any opinion let's comment in below and we can discuss with your view, if you agree with my opinion i want to say thanks to you.
Kind Regard,
KA
IDX 31st MAY 2022IHSG for the next 1 year, based on chart pattern analysis.
1. Macro resistance breakout at 6600 in October 2021, resistance area turns into support.
2. Retesting macro support area in May 2022.
3. Form a bullish channel pattern, with 2% support tolerance.
Technically if the price goes down then it will not be less than 6600.
Bullish target up to 7350-8000. This is my IDX trading plan, how about you?
IHSG WEEKLY ELLIOT WAVE PREDICT IHSG will have an ABC Correction after the 5 impulsive movement done (eliot wave theory). So hold up and keep money FRESH and Buy the stocks (bluechip) when the IHSG doing the ABC correction.
Maybe Arround 6700 we can SLOWLY buy our value stocks. For me the Banking Sector is the best choice like BBRI BBCA BBNI BMRI.
Disclaimer On
Return of IDX IndexesHere is shown the return of many IDX Indexes since 2022.
My favorite is IDX80.
Other IDX Indexes that should be in the spotlight are IDX30, IDXG30, IDXV30, and IDXQ30.
Interesting to see that IDXG30 and IDXV30 are outperformed IDXQ30. This shows that Investors prefer Growth Stocks (and Value Stocks) over Quality Stocks.
During conditions that are good for Stock Market, Investors select risky investments.
War Effect to JCI StocksI try to show the effect of Russia - Ukraine War for Indonesia Stocks.
There are 4 column consist of :
1. Mineral Stocks
2. CPO Stocks
3. Coal Stocks
4. JCI vs EIDO vs MSCI Asia ex Japan vs MSCI Emerging Market
Maybe the war bring negative news to other market but not for certain sector in Indonesia stocks market.
IHSG bull trend is almost end!I try to analize using Elliot Wave perspective, and it seems like the bull trend is almost over..
YES, it could be reach to the psychological level of 7000 or maybe more 7200-7300, but for now the risk is greater than the reward..
The correction to 5000 ish level or lower can happen anytime..
We are in the end of wave 5 of 5..
And if we take a look into the fundamental event, it almost match perfectly, The Fed is going to increase the rate soon...
So.. Please tighten your seat belt