DEU40 trade ideas
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#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level.
comment: Big down, bigger up. Again. High was high enough to qualify as another double top but the high also undershot the bull wedge resistance line. Bulls have not been able to print more then 3 consecutive bull bars since May. Why would they now? Bulls bought dips and I doubt they want to buy above 18800 all of a sudden. Odds favor the bears to trade to the bull channel support around 18500 over the next 1-2 days.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900
bull case:
Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema.
Above is from last Sunday and still valid. As long as bulls trade above the daily 20ema and inside the bull channel/exp triangle/wedge (yes all apply), it’s bullish. Problem with the bull case is, do you really want to buy above 18800? Market knows only rejections above this price so no matter how you put it, new longs here are bad. Can you buy intraday dips at support for scalps? Absolutely.
Invalidation is below 18360.
bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week.
Invalidation is above 18900. Market was rejected twice here on Friday and reversed. Bears do not want to see the market testing that price again or they will probably give up.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18666 and now we are at 18857. High of the week was 18927 and the low was 18362. Outlook was ok. I said we test back down and we did even 100 points lower than I thought. Also said bulls were in control above all ema. I absolutely did not think bulls can do 18900+ again but here we are.
short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here so I’m not into guessing. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
Chart update: Nope.
DAX LOCAL PULLBACK AHEAD|SHORT|
✅DAX is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 18,900
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target at 18,700
SHORT🔥
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DAX - OUTLOOK 13 JUL 2024Monthly 2022 High Broken
Price In Weekly Trendline Range Moving Upside
Daily Forming A Series Of Higher Highs And Higher Lows.
April 2024 To Present Has Been Some Sort Of Range On Daily Demand Zone And 4Hr Supply Zone
4Hr Trendline Upwards (2 Touch Holding)
4Hr Channel Also Approaching 4Hr Supply
4Hr Support Now Resistance Count A Total Of 7 Touches. Very Strong Support.
Dax Is Bullish On Higher Timeframes So Primarily Looking For Bullish Positions Only
Scenario One - Price Touches 4Hr Supply =
Looking For Aggressive Short Into Our 4H (7 Touch Support)
1Hr Short = Aggressive
15M Short = Very Aggressive.
Scenario Two - Price Breaks Through 4Hr Supply And Re-Test
= Load Up And Enter Buy Position Swing Trade Targeting The Top Of The Weekly Trendline
1Hr Long = Conservative
15M Long = Aggressive
DAX Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX keeps growing but
The index is locally overbought
So after the retest of the
Horizontal resistance
Of 18,887 we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish correction
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
DAX H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,636.87 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 18,800.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 18,440.29 which is a pullback support.
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DAX boosted by strong resultsThe German stock market closed with gains on Thursday with +0.72% and has continued its opening with +0.3%. The best stock of yesterday's session was Sartorius AG VZO ON which reached €243.40/ac. at the close, followed by RWE AG ST ON €34.03/ac. and Vovonia SE €29.19/ac. The worst performers were Airbus Group SE closing at €131.96, Deutsche Bank AG NA ON at €15.32/ac. MTU Aero Engines NA ON €245.02. Overall the bullish stocks played a predominant role outperforming the bearish ones 388 to 214, closing 31 unchanged. The variation since January 1 is +10.99% and for now industrials, technology, consumer cyclicals, healthcare, financials, commodities are in positive, while non-cyclicals, real estate, energy, utilities are down.
If we look at the ECB's interest in trying to relax rate policies this has been clearly reflected in the DAX (Ticker AT: Ger40) the biggest beneficiary of such policies in Europe. On the chart we can currently see a progressive climb since June 14 in the index looking for a recovery towards the highs. The range trend taken since the beginning of the year continues to be respected. It remains to be seen whether monetary policy will be supportive after the summer, but for the time being the Frankfurt spread is in the 18,600 point zone and with a trading bell shape that heavily weights the 18,000 point zone and an RSI with buy exhaustion signals at 72.20%. It would not be unusual to see a return to the mean before the end of the summer.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
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DAX40 H4 - Short SignalDAX H4
We ended up trading higher than the previous zone we indicated yesterday on DAX40. Breaking resistance and moving now closer to this next area of resistance, priced 18650.
This 18650 price no doubt holds more significance from a selling standpoint. Huge H4 supply dated 12th June and multiple tests of resistance during recent trade. The entry we were looking for right at the beginning of the week in-fact.
Ger30Fair value gap entries.look for buying opportunities from my point of entry hold till we reach the supply from the previous setup for selling opportunities.
Ger30 Ger 30 possible setup. I AM LOOKING AFOR THE MARKET TO PUSH A LITTLE BIT UPPER BEFORE WE START LOOKONG FOR SELLING OPPORTUNITIES.for now look for scalping buys.
GER30 Looking Bullish We are definitely buying this one 📉📍Here we have Ger30 on 15 mins time frame , looking at our descending structure we can confirm that buys are coming . We also have 15mins continuation flag for confirmation 💰😭
2024-07-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - #daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes just strongly green. No deeper analysis needed. Support held everywhere and markets just melted again. My top call was as moronic as can be. Markets humble you quickly. Obviously I was not humbled enough so far. Does not change my mind about this peak bubble behavior at the end of this trend and we correct/crash into year end.
Commodities - Gold inside a triangle and it’s important for bears to stay below 2390 or very likely breakout above again, shorts preferred for trade back to below 2375.
Oil got the expected bounce a bit later but still there. My target was 83/84 and high was 82.65. I expect some more tries by the bulls but should stay below 84 before more down.
Bitcoin - Bulls got higher than expected but bears did a nice reversal a bit below the daily ema. Market behaves nicely. Good chance we go down to the lows from here at 57200.
dax
comment: Strong day by the bulls in a very tight channel. Bulls need to get above 18650 again to test 18800. Bears want a deep pullback like on Monday. It’s a big triangle with one giant bear trend line and multiple bull trend lines below. Market will have a couple more days inside the range before a big breakout. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema so excuse my short analysis. Market is in balance inside given range.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18380 - 18800
bull case: Perfect double bottom 18370 for the bulls and a strong move for 250+ points. Bulls expect follow through tomorrow and want to reach 18800 again.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears argue for a retest 18600 but they would need a very strong reversal around 18600 and that is not probable. If bulls continue to buy strongly, bears will probably step aside until 18760 and try shorting higher again.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
2024-07-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes mostly had big ups and big downs today. DJI and Russel are pretty wild. Dax puked hard, which I probably announced too many times by now but yeah. 18000 soon.
Nasdaq: Refuses to go down. Every 1h bear bar has a big tail below, means bulls are in max euphoria and buying every dip, every tick. Bottom of the bull channel had 3 3 touches and we can probably expect another test of the highs tomorrow. Can be higher, lower or an exact double top, no never now in advance and it does not matter because you trade them the same. Trading range 20570 - 20770. Peak bubble.
Commodities - Gold support at 2355 held again but lower highs. Give it 1-2 more days until the next breakout and my money is on the bears. Will see 2300 again soon.
Oil mostly sideways today, big support above 81 but still lower lows and lower highs. I expect a dead cat bounce as laid out in my weekly update. Will print below 80 this or next week.
Bitcoin - W4 going sideways with big swings. Decent two legged pullback on the daily chart and could break down again soon but since market went sideways for one week during W2, we can expect a bit more sideways. Small swing short currently after taking big profits from the previous down to 54000. 57855 entry, sl 58800.
dax
comment:
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried to print above 18650 4 times on Monday and today and since market found not enough buyers, we tested lower. Bulls gave up below 18500 once market went there the third time today. Bulls are still in a higher low on the daily chart but this bear bar today was the final nail imo.
Invalidation is below 18180.
bear case: Bears in full control again. Below all ema and today they broke below the bear channel and markt held there. Very strong selling and we can expect more. Bears want to test the small bull trend line around 18300. If they break even that, it’s the next trend line around 18200. I do not expect bears to break below that and the triangle will probably play out more days before a big breakout to the downside.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
DAX H1 - Sell SignalDAX H1
We have just shifted up our short tool here, yesterday we were just a mere 5 or so points away from our black line, sell zone. We are really trying to catch that previous area of resistance and supply price that sits around 18640 price. We are still looking to try and execute something on that basis.
Eyes peeled, we will follow along with this one today and see what we can fathom.
2024-07-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax/oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Trading range price action. Elevator up and stairs down today. Helps no one and we have to wait for tomorrow for a clear direction. Market is oscillating around the 1h and the daily 20ema. Fade the extremes until clear breakout.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried again at 18800 and only got a lower high below it. They bought 18600 and until that range breaks, it’s neutral.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Either bears print below 18600 or step aside for another lower high below 18700. Until then, bulls will continue to btfd.
Invalidation is above 18830.
short term: Bullish around 18600 for trade back to at least 18680. Stop has to be 18570 for any long.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000.
trade of the day: Strong small pullback bull trend since EU open and market could not touch the 2m 20ema for 130 points. Market also reversed just as hard but a bit slower couple of minutes after the high. Had to be quick to exit longs once bar 36 traded below 35 without any pullback. Bulls quickly gave up above 18780.
Decline RetracedWe've reached the 38 % retracement of the June decline, My bearish bias thus has been confirmed.
As this retracement level has been a support/resistance level since the beginning of April I expect it to hold this time as well.
ger 40 bearish the indice is going for a short term sell. the buyers momentum has lost its power. most traders are taking profits at this point but its going to start buying at 17.700.0
sl at 18.633.2 and tp at 17,700
this is a great opportunity for those who like to whole trade for long period of time as will get a chance to increase their positions for the long run.
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