2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong day by the bears which was just a healthy pullback on a higher time frame. For bears to do some actual damage they need to print strongly below 18670 again. A measured move down would lead to 18570ish. Since bulls and bears have valid arguments here, I expect more sideways movement until we get another breakout above or below. No opinion on who wins it. Bullish above 18800, bearish below 18670.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900
bull case: Bulls see today as a pullback to the 4h 20ema and want to print a new ath while they have the momentum and trading above the higher tf ema. They also closed the market above the breakout price 18722, which confirms the bullishness, if we rally from here again.
Invalidation is below 18670.
bear case: In my weekly post I wrote that buying above 18800 is bad not matter how you look at it and bulls got another big rejection. The market now has formed a broad bull channel where the support line is around 18530, so another 170 points lower and coincidentally it’s also where the daily 20ema is. Enough reasons to have a stronger argument for another leg down by the bears.
Invalidation is above 18800.
short term: Bearish until we hit the daily ema or at least 18570. Invalid above 18800 or strong close above the 1h 20ema.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
trade of the day: buying the double bottom with y close
