DEU40 trade ideas
DAX-STRENGTH LEADERDax: Weekly clean 1-2 RTM , Our Bullish confirmation pattern, expecting extended Run
Previous daily high broken and expecting volume at US open
Note:Bullish
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?DE40 is rising towards the pivot and could potentially reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,773.31
1st Support: 18,539.97
1st Resistance: 18,929.08
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DAX Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DAX is trading in an
Uptrend and the index
Made a bullish rebound
From the horizontal
Support of 18,550
So we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting
A further move up
Buy!
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#202422 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range.
comment: Got exactly that second very weak leg down to the daily 20ema which is currently at 18650 and market could not close below it. Bulls are in full control and unless we see strong selling below the ema, odds favor another leg up to at least 19000 but I think another higher high is probable. Bears are not showing any strength and all important support prices and trend lines are holding. Close below 18400 would mean a daily close below ema and break of the bull trend line, that would change things for the bears and solidify this as a trading range.
current market cycle: Bull trend until bears break 18400 (the big bull channel line)
key levels: 18400 / 20000
bull case: This is a textbook two-legged (ABC) correction to the moving average and bulls got the most perfect signal bar to go long again on Friday. Bears have few arguments here until they break below 18500. Next for bulls is very likely a breakout of this bull flag for a retest of 19000 and then maybe higher. Since this pull-back was so weak, we could very well get another leg up. I have 19280 and 19650 as measured move targets. Invalid below 18400/18500.
bear case: I said that last time we printed a new ath in April, we sold off for 1300 points in a very tight bear channel, which was basically an endless bull flag which ended with a climactic reversal at 17600. So how does it help with trading? We could go up and down from here? Yes. You wait. We are near the high of the bull flag and a clear breakout-retest-buy setup is probably around the corner. If bulls fail at 18800 again, good short to sell down inside a tight trading range back to around 18650. There is absolutely a small possibility that this just continues down in this tight bear channel like we did early April.
outlook last week: “Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18805 and now we are at 18765. Neutral I said, neutral it was. Levels given were spot on and market closed 40 points below last weeks close. Perfect week for mean reversion.
short term: Well, we made it 40 points lower in a bull flag. Nothing of my premise changed, so I did not change my short term outlook. But I still believe we will see a bigger second leg down (first was early April down to 17600) to at least 17600 (again) over the next 2-4 weeks.
Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5. —unchanged
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way.
current swing trade: No current position. 2 Swings for small profit last 7 trading days opened and closed.
Chart update: Third push up (W5) is my preferred path for the next 2 weeks. Would update the chart, if bears brake 18500.
GER30 Monday setupThis is the expected move on Monday...we are expecting price to come to our POI and look for our entry
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
If bears can get follow through selling tomorrow and trap bulls below the breakout levels, we could see acceleration of this selling. If bulls manage to BTFD and make money with it again, this madness continues for new highs I guess.
dax
comment: Another break of the neckline but bears need follow through. There are at least 3 measured move targets to around 18400-18450 so this will be the magnet for tomorrow. Invalid above 18760.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18800
bull case: Bulls closed right at yesterdays close 18750 but US session closed below the neckline. Bulls are in deep trouble tomorrow if they can’t pump this above 18700 early again. Below 18600, 18400 will come fast.
bear case: 18400. Invalid above 18760. No ifs buts whatnots here. Weekly close below 18400 and next week will be a bull slaughter.
short term: Still Bearish - 18400ish was not hit today but if we hit it tomorrow, you read it here first.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: 18800 was clear resistance and shorting with a reasonable 20-30 point stop was an amazing trade today. Second best was the retest of the open for another short at the 1h 20ema.
GER30We just got a tap in the fvg, and we expecting sells to take out the previous low on the 1 hour timeframe.
DAX continues to hold back bears.GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 18655 (stop at 18555)
Our profit targets will be 18905 and 18955
Resistance: 18762 / 18806 / 18928
Support: 18680 / 18586 / 18500
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DAX SELLS @ 18715Selling Dax, supply looks to be strong enough to take us to demand below before continuing higher. Half risk again due to supply in an index.
Nice Correction On Dax; More Upside Ahead? Stocks remain in risk-on mode after Nvidia's beats earnings expecations, so it’s not surprising to see DAX also turning up. Index has stabilized at the first support area between 18,620 and 18,560 from where we can see the price attempting to break out of what can also be referred to as a bullish flag, therefore, the market will at some point resume higher into a 5th wave.
However, fourth-wave corrections can sometimes be tricky and complex, and it's not always easy to define the end of a wave four unless you wait a bit further for confirmation of a bullish reversal. In our example, if the DAX comes back to this week’s lows, the next significant, but also very strong, support can be found at the 38.2% Fibonacci level around 18,500.
In either case, we believe the DAX will remain in an uptrend, but don’t be alarmed by a potential top if we see deeper price action. The most important invalidation level for a trend change is at 18,237. The upward projection for wave 5 should be around 19,000.
Potential bullish rise off 23.6% Fibonacci support?DE40 is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 18,534.90
1st Support: 18,319.76
1st Resistance: 18,892.20
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GER 30 ON BEAR PUTS Orders Placed, no pending, all executed in time before the market made an impulsive move to the down side.
Aim for a 50% retest zone, then call for buys on corrections, and sell again on impulsive move targeting PSTG 1 & 2
DAX tentative reversalHey traders! 🌟 Here’s the scoop: we’ve got a tentative head and shoulders pattern forming on our charts. Why "tentative," you ask? Well, it hasn't confirmed itself just yet. This setup hints at a potential trend reversal, but let's not jump the gun.
🔍 What to Watch For:
Early Warning: Think of this pattern as a whisper of a possible trend direction change. But whispers aren’t enough—we need the full shout! 📣
Confirmation Game: No bearish momentum confirmation before hitting the neckline? No problem! This might just continue the current trend. 📈
🔺 Strategy Tip: If the right shoulder forms a triangle and we don’t see that bearish push, lean into the trend continuation play. Ride that wave! 🌊
Stay sharp, stay vibey, and happy trading! 🚀
3rd touch of trendlineim seeing a bulling movement for fomc as we have a 3rd touch of the hourly trendline.
German DAX H&S pattern setupIntraday Update: The German DAX is getting very close to the 18550 neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. A break lower may coincide with SPX below 5280
DAX40 Yesterday, we published an analysis of the DAX and we were with buying and we set three goals. The first goal was achieved and the market reversed, but we are still with buying the DAX in this area.
2024-05-21 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Markets went mostly flat today. Nasdaq printed a new ath on another low volume day. Unless markets strongly break above the highs or lows, very uneventful price action. Play the range until it clearly is not working anymore. SP500 printed a tripple top now and selling it again is a reasonable trade.
dax
comment: Bears making lower highs and lower lows but they are too weak to push the market below meaningful lower lows. Bulls are not too eager to print yet another ath and so we chop inside they given range. My head & should pattern lives as long as market stays below 18835, which is 15 points from when I wrote this, so low probability. For now we continue to oscillate around the 1h 20ema but I think the daily 20ema is close enough now for more algos to buy it, for another ATH or another melt-up to my weekly targets.
current market cycle: trading range - bulls broke 19000 but no follow through.
key levels: 18700 - 19000 - below 18700 is 18400 next and above 18840 is 19000 or much much higher again
bull case: Bulls kept it above 18700 which is still uber bullish. Next they will probably break above the bear trend line from ath and above 18840 for retest of the highs. Invalid below 18800.
bear case: Still no gap close to 18850 and we are making lower highs and lower lows. Bears need to step in above 18800 to stay inside the drawn triangle. Bulls closed above the 15 and 1h 20ema, which is not good for the bears. They need strong momentum around EU open to break below again. Bears also have going for them, that US closed green today and retest the highs or made newer highs, while dax made lower highs and lower lows. Their next target below 18800 is 18700 and then the daily ema around 18650. Invalid above 18840.
short term: Neutral 18700 - 18840. Head & Shoulders has still a very low chance of breaking down to around 18400 but don’t bet on then unless you see many strong consecutive bear bars tomorrow.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: Long from the EU open was ok, since bears could not close the gap to Friday. Bullish enough for target 18900ish.
DAX Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in a
Strong uptrend and
The index broke the
Key horizontal level
Of 18,550 and is now
Consolidating above it
So we will be expecting
A further move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
DAX H4 | Potential bullish reversalThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,671.33 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,450.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 18,923.54 which is a pullback resistance level at the all-time high.
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