DEU40 trade ideas
#202412 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Morning and i hope you are well.
Last week the dax bulls created a potential exhaustive very big island gap, US indexes ranged at the highs, gold ranged after the uber bullish move up and oil did exactly what i have been writing for many weeks now.
No matter how you want to draw it, Nasdaq made lower lows, printed 2 consecutive weekly bear bars (last time was end of October) and closed below the daily 20ema. You can bet your Glutes that i have my hopes up, this will finally roll over. The drops in Bitcoin were also big enough to flip the market to always in short if bulls cant bring this above 70000 again. So i think given Opex and FOMC next week and the price action, we are probably having a key week for the markets ahead of us.
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again.
This week, bulls formed the third big bullish gap on the daily time frame, since the bull market started 2023-10. So what are the odds of the market doing a fourth before having a bigger correction? If you find an example where German GDP contracted while Dax did this, please let me know. We will close 2 of those 3 gaps in Q2, which would only bring us down to around 17000. The odds of this gap being a measuring one to break above the bull trend line starting 2023-02 are so abysmally small, that we could actually see an island reversal here to mark this as a top. If bulls can keep the gap to 18000 open and break above the bull trend line 18300, i’m fairly certain this won’t stop until 19500/20000.
bull case: Bulls want the daily gap to 18000 to stay open and have the next breakout which could be the third leg up for the latest bull trend that started with the breakout on 2024-02-21. That third leg could give us 18600 and would invalidated the smaller bull trend lines on the chart and give us the bigger one, which started before the Covid crash and could lead to 20000. I think the probability of this happening is as great as Tesla FSD actually being FSD in the next 2 years. Daily 20ema is still 500 points away and has not been touched for more than a month.
bear case: Everything you read in this section makes more sense than the bull case, however, until bears close those bullish gaps and we see the market trading below the daily 20ema, everything in here is low probability as well. Can 18329 be the high and we drop 500 points to trap many bulls? Absolutely. Did the market stop making new all time highs for some time? Hell naw and that’s why you don’t look for shorts until bears show strength.
We again are at multiple upper trend lines, calculated measured move targets and so far away from the 20ema, that if the market turns, it will probably turn violently. Bears first target is still to stop the market from making new ath and close the gap to 18000.
outlook last week: “up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday.
short term: break above 18400 and this might just run straight to 18600 and that would open the door for 19000 and 20000. Invalid below 18000 and if bears actually show up, depending on the strength, could easily fall straight to 17700.
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
Chart wave thesis was not updated and is still valid. Will update if either of mentioned breakouts happen.
DAX, will the next crisis end the current phase?Hello everyone,
this is not a usual trading analysis. So don't take any trades from monthly levels, as you can't manage the risk at all. What you can see is my try to figure out how the DAX went through different states of price development and really interesting to see is, that every big crisis ended one phase and opened a new one.
In my point of view we are currently at the way to the upper boundary of the recent phase and should reach it within the next year. The question is, where will the price finally find a solid ATH and start to correct? According to my last daily analysis a strong zone could be around 17.600, but if the economy is holding really strong into next years, higher prices are possible of course.
If you want to be in the big short trade, that I'm anticipating from the upper boundary, you have to wait patiently for a fundamental crisis, which has more impact than the banking crisis, energy crisis or the current wars, as they didn't stop the price for a long time.
The only reason I can anticipate for now is a comeback of high inflation with even higher interest rates, that end up in a big recession and the consequences for the banking and financial system. I will monitor this scenario next year, especially the month february and march are likely to offer crisis potential.
DAX GER40 BUY LONGHi everyone, I'm aiming for a bullish continuation on the GER40, and have placed a STOP LOSS and a TAKE PROFIT.
Possible ReversalFailed to break the last high and instead, made a double top. There's a probability of a reversal.
GER40Trading is nuanced and requires as much art as science to execute successfully, which means that there is only a profit-making trade or a loss-making trade.
DAX: Overbought on 1D and in need of a technical correction.What makes us expect a technical correction this time, is the similarity in terms of RSI with mid February 2023. It took another 3 weeks for the price to decline but not before the RSI completed a Cup and Handle pattern. That was a -8.00% decline, we are aiming from the current levels for a -6.40% decline, which happened another 2 times, so our target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,900).
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The Euphoria DAX40 Continues or is a Change Coming?This day, the DAX40 has started higher , recovering the ground lost in recent days. Expectations for the euro zone are upbeat, especially for inflation, trade balances and retail sales data, with expectations for an improvement in German earnings standing out. Sales in the Italian market will be key for the Milan index, looking to close the week in positive, if the forecast is met.
Unlike the beginning of this week, marked by pullbacks due to massive selling and position closures, inflation data has prompted the European Central Bank last week to continue with its cutting projection, seeking confirmation in the current data. In this way, it is seeking to cut the phenomenon of the economic cycle movement in which we find ourselves.
In the United States, the Fed's decisions have influenced the commodities market and the EURUSD cross, doing more or less as expected this week.
Regarding the DAX40, looking at its price construction, the index price has been in a sideways range since the end of February, reaching highs yesterday at midday. Today, it has risen by 0.68%, suggesting a possible bullish continuation if the data is favorable and similar to expectations trying to find the 18,500 points. Otherwise, a rebound towards 17,612 points could be generated, remaining in the current range.
The RSI shows an overbought level of 66.62%, with overall market sentiment predominantly bull driven. The current price bell shows a quadruple bell with price dominance in the area of 17,706 points. These indicators suggest a possible reversal to the downside which could signal a continuation of the price zone where it has held since late March. It is worth keeping an eye on the day's news for further developments.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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Trade Plan (Pending): I am selling DAX 40 (GER40) at 18,050 Bespoke support is located at 17,683 and 17,085. Using projection analysis for an Elliott Wave count (5 waves) offers a resistance level of 18,053.
The one-hour time frame highlights an ending wedge pattern. The trend of higher highs is located close to the projection level. On a break of the trend of higher lows at 17,817, the measured move target is 17,660. Selling into rallies offers a good risk-reward ratio.
Selling at 18,050
SL: 18,150
TP1: 17,085
Risk/Reward Ratio of 9.65R
#tradeplan #DAX
Rising to Fibonacci level?DAX is on the pivot point at 17909.64, price could bounce off the pivot and rise to resistance that aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 17909.64
Support: 17653.29
Resistance: 18043.82
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DAX Short Term Should Stay SupportedShort Term Elliott Wave view in DAX suggests cycle from 1.17.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 1.17.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 17049.52 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 16830.28 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. The Index then rallies higher within in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 17198.45 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 17019.15. The Index extended higher in wave (iii) towards 17816.52 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 17619.4. The Index extended higher again in wave (v) towards 17879.11 which completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree.
Pullback in wave ((iv)) subdivided into a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 17795.13 and wave (b) ended at 17860.51. Wave (c) lower ended at 17662.55 which completed wave ((iv)). The Index has extended higher in wave ((v)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((iv)), wave i ended at 17849.8 and wave ii ended at 17746.89. Index extended higher in wave iii towards 18001.42 and wave iv ended at 17939.50. Final leg wave v ended at 18039.05 which completed wave (i). Expect wave (ii) pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside, as far as pivot at 16830.28 low stays intact.
Short after support breakThe Dax40 broke a lower time frame structure, 17930 was a support which was respected at lot, but a quick scapl can be spotted. The trend is although still bullish but the short term bearish setup could be placed upon retest of the structure.
Ger40 sell Cracks appearing in the run up now. Decent supply coming into the markets. If that shuts off abruptly and gets bought into another short squeeze then I’m wrong. If supply flushes down then could be a big one. Aim for breakeven at signs of failure to push down as it should go quick. This is a low probability, high reward trade.
Dax nearing the end of 5 waves up for wave 3 topEurope as is the whole world is now setup for a correction of greater than 5% from 3/11 to April 2 nd 4/2 2024 . I am short and long in the money and at the money puts .
Long DaxPossible long trade on Dax low volume recovery.
30min uptrend confirmed by 200EMA
Volume profile POC closing above previous day and leaving low volume cave below.
Market profile showing excess at previous days low and poor high.
Potential for price to fill low volume cave with 2 x previous day high and fib retracement.
Stop loss below cave, target at round number.
Wait for clear trigger to present, either break of counter trend or strong 5min resistance
GER40 LONG BUYHello everyone, for the ger40 I'm aiming for a bullish continuation after the rebound on the demand zone and the break of the structure.
Dax Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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GER30 SetupGER30 is bullish on 1 Hour time-frame. I have identified 2 areas of interest tongo LONG. Look for the LTF confirmation before taking any kind of entry. Thank You.
DAX H4 | Falling to pullback supportThe DAX (GER40) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,658.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 17,451.85
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that sits under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 18,255.53
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level
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DAX Correction very likely. Target 17100.DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross (which has been a sell signal within this pattern) while the price is already on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension level (which is where it was rejected on the previous Bullish Leg on March 07 2023), we are turning bearish on DAX on the medium-term, targeting the previous Resistance at 17100.
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GER40 Failure Test sellDecent failure test on GER40 Index. Have to be very careful trading against this momentum.
