#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax xetraGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: We are in W5 and no idea how high it will go. 20000 is the obvious choice and only 300 points higher on xetra. Until we hit that level, it’s hard to get bearish. The bull channel is also perfectly leading up to that price and who tf am I to deny technical patterns eh. Only longs for me are on strong momentum and they will be scalps. I am awaiting the weakness to short this into oblivion over the next 2 years.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish outlook was good. Bulls will likely retest ath on Monday/Tuesday and have good chances of making new ones. My targets above are 19500 and 19600 with 20000 being possible if we get blow-off top. Don’t be a bear until bears can close below 18900.
comment : Bullish was good but the rally is losing steam. We are in the final leg before we probably transition into a trading range before we go down. 20000 is the target for bulls and I expect them to get it one way or the other. Preferred path is a spike followed by huge profit taking. Nothing about the chart is good for bears and I would not even think about shorts, before we see some decent selling again. You never want to be early in a trade as a retail trader.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case:
Bulls have all arguments on their side again. My bullish wave thesis is still fitting perfectly and W5 could lead to 20000. Any close below 19200 would seriously hurt the bull case.
I can’t write anything else but the stuff from last week. Nothing changed. We are moving higher, bears have no arguments, 20k is the target. Don’t make this more complicated as it is.
Invalidation is below 19300.
bear case: If you don’t want to long this, you simply have to wait. Bears are doing nothing and until we see much greater selling pressure, I will not even waste time on thinking bearish. Will this overvalued trash index lose 30-50% in the next 5 years? I have zero doubts about that. Is this the time to start scaling into shorts? Absolutely fucking not.
Invalidation is above 19400.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 19500 and higher.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19373 and now we are at 19779. Everyone is a genius in a bull trend. Never forget that when your uber driver tells you about Nvidia or Dogecoin.
short term: Bullish for 20000. Can see a pullback first or not. We are in the middle of the channel, which is always a bad spot. Trade momentum or long a decent pullback.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added minor upper bull wedge trend lines (dotted) which will likely be broken on Monday and deleted again and a possible two legged correction.
