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DEU40 trade ideas

Is the market turning bearish?📊 In the four-hour time frame, due to the decrease in the upward movement momentum of the price, if the upward movement trend of the price is broken and the price stabilizes below the range of 18,250 units, there is a possibility of the price falling to the range of 18,150 units🎯, and in case of strength, there is a possibility of the range of 18,000 units🎯🎯. 📊 Otherwise, the possibility of price increase up to the range of 18600 units.
XETR:DAXShort
by arongroups
DAX It starts on the back of German dataEuropean stock markets have started the quarter with positive momentum, highlighting the focus on German inflation data that could influence the European Central Bank's next decision. Germany's economic performance is usually a key indicator for the eurozone as a whole. The return of investors to the market after the Easter holidays has contributed to the moderate rise of the indices, especially in sectors such as technology, insurance and banking have reported good figures. As an example, the DAX (Ticker AT: GER40) has experienced a 0.3% increase, with expectations on consumer price data to be released today at noon, an increase of 2.2% y-o-y is anticipated compared to 2.5% in the previous month. The German economy is considered the inflation barometer for the Eurozone, and this Wednesday we may hear from the ECB on what will happen to inflation. From a technical perspective, the DAX has shown steady growth in recent weeks, with a breakout from its strongest trading zone that could easily be anticipated given that it was experiencing unstoppable growth in its price and trading volumes. The price bell analysis suggests a figure that diversifies into five marked price areas with a special concentration around 17,895 points, while the RSI indicates a trading of 46.18%, below the 200-day average at 59.02%. This could suggest a possible correction or consolidation in the previous price zone, with a maximum retracement level expected around 18,041.34 points (the high zone of the previous trading range) . Fibonacci retracement analysis suggests that the market may not extend much beyond 1 which is its current zone, and contract towards 0.786 found at 18,447 points. In summary, the German market will remain a key driver of the index and it will be key to see if Germany continues to push exports and increase its domestic consumption, with possible bullish scenarios if the all-time highs of 18,603.47 points are breached if this scenario holds true, or corrections expected otherwise, with testing levels at lower support zones with the downside limit being 18,039.42 points. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:GER40Short
by ActivTrades
DAX weekly forecast from April 2nd, 2024Situation assessment XETR:DAX 1. We have reached another trend reversal zone 2. In our opinion, “much” after “above” is no longer possible in the future We would like to apologize for the inaccuracy of last week's forecast {wink} when we headlined as follows: 1. Weekly UP peak: between 18,406 and 18,518 (Bonus: 18,630) 2. In perspective, EUREX:FDAX1! The next striking decision zone is 18,777 (+/-) in focus. The weekly XETR:DAX peak was reached with 5 points less at exactly 18,513.83 and to create this forecast the FDAX reached 18,776 in late trading ;-). The rest of the forecast is also impressive... Be that as it may, at the beginning of April we will be flooded with some standardized purchase orders (funds, savings plans, etc.) until the April expiry, which will give the DAX a slight further boost. Professional traders use this as an opportunity, especially at the end of the quarter, to take antagonistic positions and carry out a latent “rebalance” at the next quarterly end in June. In perspective, we see the round 18,650 / 680 in XETR:DAX as a potential high point before we could take corrective measures. This would be equivalent to approximately $18,995 EUREX:FDAX1! points. For the homeopathic Waver faction among us: … we see the 3 of the running 5 at the final end, before we get the 4... . As you have probably already noticed, we don't like "mystical wave predictions" - although we do take the "waves" into account in our models, just as emotionless and interpretation-free mathematical functions, e.g. in the form of adaptive signal decomposition . In addition, other factors often play a much more crucial role for professional traders than the “Bloomberg” faction is trying to sell us. As long as XETR:DAX 18,535 can be validly overcome on a daily basis as of April 2nd over the course of the week, the gates are open for us to achieve even higher goals via 18,613 / 683. For this it would be necessary to overcome the 18,726 valid on a daily closing price basis over the course of the week. If this happens, nothing stands in the way of the ~18,900 to 19,095 / 209 until the April monthly witch dance. From a standard pivot perspective, the XETR:DAX weekly-monthly comparison shows 18,646 / 679 as a valid resistance zone. Furthermore, the R2 annual pivot is at 18,597, which will not have an exact braking effect at this point, but will have a braking effect in this region. Unless an exogenous black swan emerges, it is not worth paying much attention to the downside for the coming week. On the one hand, the hedging needs (VDAX, SKEW, ...) speak against this and, on the other hand, our trend barometer and the general momentum currently show no reason to worry. On the contrary: setbacks will be bought (!). Nevertheless, the XETR:DAX Magistrale (MoB) is at 18,247 for the coming week. Only when it is validly below... is it time to consider a short strategy and set an anchor point again (did you remember? ;)) However, don't forget: we are in a shortened trading week in the western-oriented world with lower sales in the future and the associated volatile uncertainties (!) So don't be disappointed if the high in March has already been marked with the April contract change . If you value this article and the work involved, follow us and give us a thumbs up - it doesn't hurt (:-) It is worth mentioning “by the way” that in terms of chart technology we have achieved an extension from 2000 – 2008 with ~18,485. We forecast based on mathematical models for XETR:DAX as follows: 1. Trend barometer: UP 2nd week UP peak: between 18,613 and 18,683 (Bonus: 18,726) 3rd week DOWN peak: between 18,357 and 18,287 4. Arithmetic mean: between 18,384 and 18,586 5. MOB technical price mark: 18,428 6. Pivot fluctuation range: 18,216 / 18,722 7. Fair Value GD / Low / High: 18,440 / 904 / 935 8. VIX Zones: 11.58 / 12.66 Notes ===== Stock market rule: Markets can behave irrationally longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keynes) Forecasts are what they are: A look into the future taking into account the past, which can change dynamically, positively or negatively, from the time of publication To create this forecast, a trend-following system (TM) developed in-house using, among other things, mathematical, statistical, rolling, volume-based, differential analysis methods is used and accordingly shortened and simplified in an informative, non-indirect manner here on Tradingview in the generally accessible public area free of charge for personal use.
XETR:DAXLong
by skiski
German DAX: New Highs?Hey Traders, The state of the German Economy, alike other economic zones and economies has seen twists and turns. From hopeful highs, to fearful lows, the transition from confidence to incompetence has been viewed widely. The current retracement above local and historic highs comes about as the US index markets also rise, after inflation reports and comments from the FED feeding global confidence. Falls on fears the global economy will crash, back to rebounds on the basis that maybe things are not so bad. These fears and hopes can be seen throughout the general market and comments from the FED in the US giving an overall 'world sentiment'. Its important to take note of the fundamental and technical bias that presents, as they often go hand in hand. The Point of fundamental analysis is to gauge current and future market mood. The point of Technical Analysis is to gauge the validity of a price point and its preferability amongst traders alike. A reduction in global tensions recently and lesser fears of an energy crisis have helped the global economy and indeed the German economy as they consume a lot of energy and require oil in copious amounts to function. Putting the two together allows you to pick key short zones BEFORE negative news occurs, since markets are pretty much a transition of investors buying when things seem like they'll go up, to shorting when there is belief they will go down. Germany, in particular, has frequently had a robust economy and the sustained growth of the economy has led to a boost in the value of the DAX as its inherent companies grow accordingly. It was considered at times the strong economy in Europe. As Germany experienced a PMI reading of under 50, this generally reflects a contracting economy. This is also the case in other places in the world where there is very little growth, like the UK. This is mainly driven as consumers stop spending money and thus businesses make less money. Business is also slowed by the cost of borrowing and the cost of materials and machinery. Sentiment Bias (market mood/fundamentals): Particularly, Germany faces problems with residentials builds at the moment as more and more companies start to cancel planned projects that they were going to follow through with. It's just become too expensive for them to complete and they are having to scale back, further slowing the overall health of the economy. There is also the budget crisis in which the planned spending by Germany to stimulate the economy has many questions over its head. The amount being borrowed comes heavily into question, particularly now. Technical Bias (reading charts and using price): We are returning to key price levels seen previously on Market falls. These are short areas and certainly not time to buy, especially inline with the aforementioned. The rally in price mainly comes as conditions are better elsewhere in the world and giving indication to what may occur in future. Short bias much preferred at this point, with a light intention, due to rapid moves into previous highs. The reason why highs are used for shorting markets is because they tell you where the previously preferred long exit areas and thus short entry areas are located in the minds of investors and traders alike. Its important to note in conjunction that the most recent fall has not taken you enormously further down and therefore it can be inferred that somewhat long bias, whether founded or unfounded exists. From here, I would be reacting / checking for lower timeframe entry confirmation and signs price is halting. One must be cautious when determining short areas. Identifying overall high prices and taking a fundamental bias is fine. But it has to be backed up heavily by rational and logical risk management plans in the event you do indeed reach higher highs, despite economic headwinds.
XETR:DAXShort
by WillSebastian
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