DXY trade ideas
DXY short setup📉 USD Dollar Index (DXY) Short Setup 📉
Entry: Around $107.00
Stop Loss: $107.50 (Above resistance level)
Target: $106.00 (Support zone)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~2.0
🔹 Potential breakdown of ascending trendline 📉
🔹 EMA alignment showing weakness 🔻
🔹 Rejection near key resistance level 🔴
Looking for confirmation for entry. Let me know your thoughts! 💬 #DXY #USDollar #Forex #Trading
USD: Fading bearish momentumOur baseline view for this week has been that the dollar correction has run its course, and we still favour chasing a USD rebound against other G10 currencies. There is admittedly some residual room for a risk-on/dollar-off move once a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal is agreed, but markets are largely pricing it in at this stage and there are no guarantees for now that it will allow to price out longer-run geopolitical risk.
Today, markets will remain focused on any developments on the US-Russia bilateral talks on Ukraine, but barring a major breakthrough, the optimistic push and relative upbeat risk sentiment may stall or fade in the next couple of days and the dollar can continue to recover some ground.
Also on the positioning side, there is some evidence that the dollar longs are slightly less stretched. CFTC USD positioning versus G10 currencies excluding SEK and NOK (which are not reported) has inched back lower to a seven-week low, albeit remaining above +20% of open interest.
Macro developments will likely play a secondary role this week, with the exception of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes. Today’s Empire Manufacturing index and TIC flows out of the US should have limited market impact.
#USDX 4HUSDX (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming a flag pattern, which is generally considered a continuation signal. This indicates that the market is in a consolidation phase after a strong move, and a breakout could lead to further bullish momentum.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise if the price breaks above the upper trendline of the flag pattern, confirming bullish strength.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a breakout above the flag pattern with strong volume.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the recent low to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target the next key resistance levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The flag pattern suggests that the market is pausing before continuing its upward move. Waiting for a confirmed breakout will help align with the prevailing trend and avoid false signals.
18.02.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
OANDA:XAGUSD
FX:EURUSD
FX:AUDUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
DXY WEEK LONGAfter taking the Swing Low, we expect an upward reaction of the DXY with a possibility of reaching 50% of the weekly range and then taking the weekly low as the weekly target.
The dollar can do it to bounce back up into the sky. The dollar can do it to bounce back up into the sky.
DXY IndexDXY Index
Symmetrical Triangle as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
$dxy lower, $iwm to catch a bid back over 230?Seasonality headwinds this week and next but if dxy keeps heading lower and rates come down, I think the market will buck the trend.
Look at past years of strong January into Valentine's. Not all February's have ended weak the last 2 weeks.
DXY Is Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 106.448.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 105.539 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY Weekly BiasMy bias for this index is bearish and the price might target the Sellside Liquidity at 105.4. My Optimum Trade Entry would be around the 107.28 Zone.
DXY Long
On the weekly Time Frame the DXY has broken above a previous weekly resistance level (wPb).
Price has since Re-Tested this level and seems to be finding Support.
Last weeks candle (week 6) printed what I believe, has proven to be a strong reversal candle (with Bullish Divergence), indicating the bearish correction (Re-Test of wPb) is about to reverse Long.
In light of this I'll be looking for a reason to enter Long on the 4h Time Frame, inside the wPb Zone & aiming for the w6 High.
Stumbling DXY ahead of Trump speech and FOMC minutesIt is make or break time for my ideas on the DXY after the DXY failed to hold levels above the 50-day MA at 108. The critical support between 107.2 and 107.5 is currently being tested after the DXY closed the week 1.2% weaker at 106.8 despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than expected at 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% in December. Additionally, on top of Powell’s comments regarding the strength of the US economy, the ISM Manufacturing PMI completely shattered expectations after coming in stronger than expected at 50.9 for the month of January. The DXY however pulled back sharply on Thursday off the back of a weaker than expected initial jobless claims report and a stronger than expected PPI print of 3.5% yoy. The downward momentum gained further traction after core retail sales completely missed expectations, contracting 0.4% mom in January.
If the DXY does not close this week above the support at 107.2 I’ll have to invalidate my series of ideas calling for a move to 112.2. A break below my support range mentioned above will allow the DXY to slide all the way onto the support of the 38.2% FIbo retracement at 105.4 and the 200-day MA currently at 104.9. I’m not ready to invalidate the idea just yet since we may be looking at a bear trap on the DXY but I may have to get back to the drawing board after this week’s trading.
DXY Discussion of the Week My Point of view,
Beware of the uptrend line ,
DXY Reached golden fibonacci zone,
All pairs reach the rejection level.
GBPUSD, EURUSD.
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 107.51
1st Support: 105.72
1st Resistance: 109.67
Risk Warning:
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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Dollar index Based on our analysis, there is a high probability that Dollar may enter a bullish trend in the near future.
DXY Weekly Chart: "The Bull-trap Breakout"The US Dollar Index is currently positioned at the top of its trading range, which has been in play since 2023 on the weekly timeframe. This presents a solid bearish setup, as the index is likely to reverse and trade back into the range.
This trade idea has been in play since September of 2024 when we were still trading at the BOTTOM of the rang e
Dollar Index - Trump & TariffsWith a lot of fundamental conflicts at play, one being the tariffs war on China, EU, Mexico and Canada (we don’t know yet if any more countries will be affected), we are seeing the result in price action.
We are trading in a range from 110.176 - 106.969 and so far, Dollar has managed to support the weekly BISI @ the 107.500 region but also trade up to and reject the 109.770 HTF PD array.
Ultimately, it will be fundamental news that will grant dollar the necessary volatility to run to liquidity pools. My guess, to the downside
Weekly Analysis Video: GBPUSD and EURUSDHello Traders,
In this video, I present my ideas on GBPUSD and EURUSD.
After a week of waiting, we now have a clean intent on GBPUSD.
Find out on this video.
Thanks and cheers
DXY 1W IdeaPotential for a bullish pullback on the DXY Jones which could lead to a price movement towards the resistance level at 115.000
DXY │ S&P500 │NAS100 │GOLDFUNDAMENTAL, SENTIMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of DXY and its implication on the correlated instruments noted in the title.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Indicators:
1. Stock Market: The market is near its highest point (6118 vs. a high of 6130), indicating positive investor sentiment.
2. Unemployment Rate: At 4%, it's relatively low and shows stability compared to the previous month (4.1%), which suggests a healthy labor market.
3. Business Confidence and PMI: Business Confidence (50.9) and Manufacturing PMI (51.2) are above 50, indicating economic expansion.
4. Current Account to GDP: Improved from -3.8% to -3%, indicating a slightly better external position.
Bearish Indicators:
1. GDP Growth: Both the quarterly (2.3%) and annual growth rates (2.5%) have declined, signaling a slowing economy.
2. Non-Farm Payrolls: Significant drop from 307K to 143K, suggesting weakening job creation.
3. Inflation: Increased from 2.9% to 3% with a MoM rise of 0.5%, indicating growing inflationary pressures.
4. Balance of Trade and Current Account: The trade deficit widened from -78.94 to -98.43 USD Billion, and the current account deficit worsened, showing external sector weakness.
5. Government Budget Deficit: Increased from -5.4% to -6.2% of GDP, reflecting fiscal strain.
6. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales: Consumer Confidence fell to 67.8 from 71.1, and Retail Sales dropped by -0.9%, suggesting weaker consumer spending.
Overall Sentiment: Bearish
Despite some positive indicators like the stock market's strength and a stable labor market, the slowdown in GDP growth, weak payroll data, rising inflation, worsening trade balance, and declining consumer confidence suggest a cautious outlook. The economy appears to be losing momentum, leading to a bearish sentiment overall.
SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS
Large spec commercial traders are particularly bearish against the dollar ( Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis for USD Index (ICE Futures U.S.) )
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. DXY
2. S&P500
3. NAS100
4. GOLD
