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US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEXUS DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEXUS DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX

US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX

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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis – Weekly ChartThis chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) shows a potential Elliott Wave correction (A-B-C) pattern with Fibonacci retracement levels. Key Observations: Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 0.618 (109.846): Price touched this key retracement level before reversing downward. 0.5 (107.235): Also acted as a resistance zone. 0.236 (101.394): Possible short-term support level. Elliott Wave A-B-C Structure: Wave A: The initial decline from the peak. Wave B: The corrective upward move (retraced to the 0.618 level). Wave C: Expected further downside movement. Moving Averages (MA): The 105.08 MA was recently broken, signaling a possible trend shift downward. The 102.28 MA could act as a short-term support level. Bearish Scenario: If the C wave completes, the price could drop toward 96.172 or even lower. Confirmation of a breakdown below 102.28 would increase bearish momentum. Trade Plan (Bearish Bias): Entry: Short position if price breaks below 102.28. Stop Loss: Above the recent high (~109.85). Target Levels: 101.39 (0.236 Fib level) 96.17 (Full retracement) Conclusion: The DXY is showing bearish signs, having rejected the 0.618 Fib level and breaking key support zones. If the Elliott Wave pattern plays out, we could see further downside toward the 96–98 range. A confirmed move below 102.28 will validate a stronger bearish move.
TVC:DXYShort
by GoodTarget
Elliott Wave View Dollar Index (DXY) Nesting Impulsively LowerShort Term Elliott Wave View in Dollar Index (DXY) suggests the decline from 1.13.2025 peak is taking the form of an impulse with extension (nesting). Down from there, wave 1 ended at 106.97 and rally in wave 2 ended at 109.88. The ETF extended lower in wave 3 which is unfolding in 5 waves in lesser degree. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 106.12 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Rally in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 106.79 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 106.16. Rally in wave (c) ended at 107.65 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The ETF extended lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 105.87 and wave (ii) rally ended at 106.38. The ETF extended lower in wave (iii). Expect wave (iv) rally to fail for further downside to complete wave (v) of ((iii)). Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)). This area comes at 101.59 – 103.9 where wave (v) of ((iii)) should end. Near term, as far as pivot at 107.65 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
TVC:DXY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
USD Dramatic Drop on Recession ConcernsWhile tariff talk was a driver of strength for the USD, even into late last week, that dynamic has shifted, and it seems that the driver is worry or concern about possible recession in the U.S. economy. Just last Wednesday, President Trump had a comment regarding tariffs on Europe, taking place around lunch time in New York. At the time, EUR/USD had just begun to re-test the Fibonacci level at 1.0523 again, but that comment helped to prod a pullback, and soon, a shorter-term reversal. That weakness in EUR/USD and strength in USD lasted into the end of the week, but so far this week, a very different tone has taken over. This is probably helped at least in-part by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Now stat, which suggests a contraction for GDP for Q1. This is in stark contrast to the data point less than two months ago and it highlights the dimming in data that's shown of late. This has helped to push expectations for rate cuts even higher, and that's been the dragging point for USD so far this week. Now, with weakness in the mix for the U.S., those tariff concerns are being perceived as another point of weakness and another factor that could further drive weakness into the USD. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
1
Reasons for dollar to stabilizeDollar strength is expected to stabilize or persist into 2025 for several reasons: Economic growth differentials: The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, outpacing the 1.7% growth forecast for all developed markets. This is driven by superior productivity growth, higher business investment and fewer labor supply issues compared to other developed markets. Such robust growth, which has contributed to inflation remaining above 2%, may lead the Fed to halt rate cuts sooner than expected. This makes a dollar weakening unlikely in the short term. Monetary policy differentials: The increasing divergence in global growth has led to a greater disparity in central bank policies worldwide. As a result, the gap between U.S. 10-year bond yields and those of its key trading partners has widened to its highest level since 1994. These differentials may remain elevated, as markets are currently pricing in only a limited number of Fed cuts next year (44bps), compared to 110bps for the ECB and rate hikes of 47bps in Japan. Policy changes: The upcoming administration's focus on boosting domestic manufacturing, increasing tariffs and deregulating industries could spur business growth and sustain higher interest rates, supporting the dollar. President-elect Trump has also discussed imposing tariffs or other measures on countries that challenge the dollar's trade dominance or reserve currency status. Even with the factors supporting the dollar, its ascent is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Currently, the dollar is two standard deviations above its 50-year average, suggesting limited room for further appreciation. Historically, the dollar has alternated between periods of strength and weakness, making a downturn likely at some point, though the timing is uncertain. Additionally, the U.S.'s persistent trade balance deficit, at 4.2% of GDP as of September 2024, poses a long-term constraint, highlighting a structural challenge that could eventually pressure the currency. A strong dollar can hurt international company performance for U.S.-based investors. It can also negatively impact U.S. companies with significant international exposure and U.S. exports by making goods more expensive abroad. While a stronger dollar could bolster the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative in 2025, investors should carefully assess its potential impact on their portfolios. Technically, we had a cup and handle formation, which we previously broke. Now, we are in the pullback of the break, and it make a triangle for wave 4. Remember wave dos was a flat. For that matter, this strong down momemtun, could be a retracement or wave 2 of 5.
TVC:DXY
by TRADINGACPVIP
US DOLLAR Approaching Key Support – Will Buyers Step In?TVC:DXY is approaching a key support level, highlighted by strong buying interest. This area aligns with a trendline support level, increasing the likelihood of a bullish bounce if buyers step in. If the price confirms support within this zone through bullish price action—such as long lower wicks or bullish engulfing candles—we could see a reversal toward 106.200, a logical target based on previous market structure and price behavior. However, if the price breaks below this support zone and sustains, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, potentially leading to further downside. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
TVC:DXYLong
by TrendDiva
17
Dollar Index - End of February Analysis- Below the opening price of the 3-month bullish order block, a monthly BISI @ 104.636 – 105.420 presents itself - Failed to see last months high taken out all whilst trading into the 6-month SIBI. Last months lows has been taken although price closed inside the previous. months range - Studying a draw to February's low @ 106.126 as the 1st point of interest - Monthly candle body closure above the midpoint of Februarys high and open will negate this idea.
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince