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US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEXUS DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEXUS DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX

US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX

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Levels discussed on Livestream 14th Jan 202514th January 2025 DXY: Test support of 109.40, if below 109.30 can trade down to 108.75 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5580 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6190 SL 20 TP 60 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2180 SL 25 TP 75 or Sell 1.23 SL 30 TP 100 EURUSD: Sell 1.0315 SL 30 TP 120 USDJPY: Sell 156.90 SL 30 TP 80 EURJPY: Buy 162.00 SL 40 TP 80 GBPJPY: Sell 191.80 SL 50 TP 150 USDCHF: Buy 0.9155 SL 25 TP 60 USDCAD: Sell 1.4350 SL 20 TP 45 XAUUSD: If price stays below 2675 could trade down to 2645
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
DXY Is Going Down! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 17h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 109.631. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 107.871 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
TVC:DXYLong
by Dave-Hunter
7
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking
DXY - 2025 Yearly Outlook - Bearish..."When" not "If"This is a rough yearly outlook for the DXY. I will be updating this as the year goes on (I'll update this idea monthly as I check it). Right now there is TONS of sell side liquidity open on the DXY, and price may want to attack it. It's important to monitor its behavior around the 110-112 mark. I'm bearish on this index overall (1-4 year outlook), but it could definitely have a semi bullish 2025. SCENARIOS -If we get a strong breach above that would imply a new 10-year high potential. -If we hit the 110-112 mark and reverse down under 108 within 30-days of hitting that mark, we are probably going to make a run for sell side liquidity, with the first target being 99.50. That's all for now. -Gio ... P.S. If anything I say in this sounds like a different language to you, or you want to learn my techniques, give me a follow. I'm launching a community this summer to help new and struggling traders with market techniques and personal development. It will be free. If you follow me now, I'll notify you, or shoot you a message when it becomes available.
TVC:DXY
by elevatedinvestor
DXY (INDEX) analysis This chart shows the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1-hour timeframe. Key observations: 1. **Support Zone**: The shaded grey area around 108.800–109.000 is acting as a strong support zone, with multiple rejections visible. 2. **Rounded Retest**: There seems to be a rounded retest pattern forming, suggesting bullish momentum might build if the price sustains above this level. 3. **Structure**: Break of structure (BOS) and change of character (ChoCh) markers indicate recent shifts in momentum. The latest BOS suggests the potential for bullish continuation. 4. **Key Resistance**: Immediate resistance is visible near 109.400–109.600. A breakout above this could lead to further upside. 5. **Strategy**: Watching for bullish confirmation above the support zone or at breakout levels could be prudent. Alternatively, failure to hold this zone may lead to bearish pressure.
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DXY - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Today, I want to share my personal view on the Dollar Index (DXY) with you. Based on what I see on the chart, I expect the Dollar Index (DXY) to reach the resistance zone of 110.668 to 110.877 . After a small pullback, I anticipate it will start its bullish movement upwards. If the 107.750 level breaks downward and consolidates on the 1H timeframe, a further decline could follow. 📈 Expectation: After a minor pullback, the DXY is likely to initiate a bullish movement and continue its upward trend. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Zone: 110.668 - 110.877 💬 What’s your view on the Dollar Index this week? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Trade safe
TVC:DXYLong
by PouyanTradeFX
"Awaiting Bearish Confirmation at Key Resistance Zone on DXY"Based on the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index: 1. **Trend Analysis**: The index is currently within an upward channel, indicating a bullish trend. The price is oscillating between the upper and lower boundaries of this channel. 2. **Recent Movements**: There’s a noticeable price peak around the upper boundary, suggesting potential exhaustion. The recent downward movement indicates the possibility of a reversal. 3. **Bearish Confirmation**: The note emphasizes waiting for bearish confirmation before executing any trades. This suggests that it's prudent to look for signs of trend reversal or weakening momentum before making a bearish move. 4. **Strategy**: The advice is clear: without confirmation of a bearish trend, no trading should occur, highlighting a cautious approach. 5. **Key Levels**: Watch for key support around the mid-channel and resistance near the upper boundary, which could signal entry or exit points. Overall, the chart indicates a cautious approach is necessary, focusing on confirmations before taking any trading actions.
TVC:DXYShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DXY can still growI am seeing that on a daily basis the strength of $ against Rials is increasing the only option that iran has is a strong attempt to bolster production at all lines of industry at leat to 300 to 600% of the current status. only in this way we will be able to slow down or halt this currency weakness against the US dollar. it has bee alleged that iran can absorb around 2 trillion dollars in foreign investment to boost its economy. after the start of the revolution there has been a downtrend in investment.
TVC:DXYLong
by loginmusa
DXY Tests Resistance at $109.53: Signs of Downward PressureTVC:DXY DXY Tests Fractal Resistance at $109.53 Signs of Downward Pressure and Potential Pullback The DXY has recently tested a crucial resistance at $109.53 but is now showing signs of downward pressure. In this post, we’ll break down the key technical factors indicating the possibility of a corrective move and what traders should watch for in the coming days. Several technical factors now point toward the possibility of a pullback or bearish movement in the DXY: 1. Bearish Divergence Signals Bearish divergence occurs when the price hits new highs while momentum indicators start to weaken. In the case of the DXY, we are seeing this type of divergence, suggesting that buying pressure is diminishing. This could be a signal that the uptrend is losing momentum. 2. 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level at $108.98 The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is widely considered one of the most important levels in technical analysis, and currently, it is acting as a key resistance zone at $108.98. This level plays a critical role in determining whether the DXY will maintain its upward momentum or begin a correction. As it stands, a failure to break above this level could signal the start of a deeper pullback. 3. Completion of the Bearish Crab Pattern at $109.85 The DXY has recently completed a bearish crab pattern at $109.85, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This pattern typically signals that the market has exhausted its upward movement, and a pullback/reversal could be imminent. 4. Completion of the Elliott Wave Structure: Wave 5 Equals Wave 1 Elliott Wave analysis also suggests a potential end to the uptrend. The DXY has recently completed a five-wave structure to the upside, where Wave 5 equals Wave 1, indicating that the rally may have run its course. This increases the likelihood of a corrective phase. What to Watch For: Potential Pullbacks Given the current technical setup, traders should closely monitor the following key levels for signs of a pullback: $109.53: The fractal resistance level recently tested. $108.98: The major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as a potential element of resistance. $109.85: The completion point of the bearish crab pattern, a crucial level for confirming a reversal. If the DXY begins to break below these levels, we could see further downside movement, with the potential for a deeper correction. Happy Trading, André Cardoso
TVC:DXYShort
by Andre_Cardoso