DXY trade ideas
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 5/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - September 5, 2024
Introduction:
Hello, this is Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, with your daily technical analysis for the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices for Thursday, September 5, 2024.
Before we begin our technical and economic analysis, let’s highlight the key economic data that will be released today and could impact price movements:
• 3:30 PM Mecca Time: Unemployment Claims Report.
• 4:45 PM: Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
• 5:00 PM: Non-Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
• 6:00 PM: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Report.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis:
We observe that the U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade under pressure and below the 50-day moving average on the daily frame. It is also trading below the main downward trend line and the secondary downward trend line. As long as prices remain below the 102 level, the bearish bias is favored, potentially targeting the 100.300 and 99 levels. The recent data showed significant negativity, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to abandon its monetary tightening policy, possibly leading to a further decline in the U.S. dollar.
EUR/USD Pair Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a positive scenario, with prices holding above the 1.1000 level, supporting the bullish outlook targeting 1.1210 and 1.1315 in the medium term. This positive scenario would be invalidated only by a break below the 1.1000 level.
GBP/USD Pair Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair maintains its positive stance with prices staying above the 1.3100 level, potentially driving gains toward 1.3250 and 1.3360. This upward scenario would be invalidated by a break below the 1.3100 level.
USD/JPY Pair Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is attempting to return to its downward trend. Continuing prices below the 145 yen level could return the pair to a bearish path targeting 140 yen and also 134 yen.
USD/CHF Pair Analysis:
The USD/CHF pair continues to trade under pressure, with prices staying below the 0.8510 level, favoring a bearish bias targeting 0.8370 and 0.8240.
AUD/USD Pair Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair remains in a positive scenario, with prices holding above the 0.6670 level, which may push the pair to achieve gains towards 0.6900 in the short term and 0.7100 in the medium term. This positive scenario would be invalidated by a break below the 0.6670 level.
NZD/USD Pair Analysis:
The NZD/USD pair is looking to end its corrections and resume its upward trend, which will only be confirmed by breaking the 55-day moving average and surpassing the 0.6225 level. This could drive the prices upwards towards 0.6450 and 0.6550 in the medium term.
USD/CAD Pair Analysis:
The USD/CAD pair continues to trade under pressure, with prices remaining below the 1.3600 level, which could lead to further declines towards 1.3550. If this level is broken, losses could extend to 1.3300.
GBP/JPY Pair Analysis:
The GBP/JPY pair is trading under pressure, with prices staying below the 196 yen level, favoring a bearish bias that could push the pair to drop to 184 yen.
EUR/JPY Pair Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is trading under pressure, with prices remaining below the 164 yen level, potentially leading to a continuation of the downward trend towards 158 yen.
EUR/GBP Pair Analysis:
The EUR/GBP pair is trading under pressure, with prices remaining below the 0.8450 level, which could push the pair to decline to the 0.8375 and 0.8300 levels. This bearish scenario would be invalidated by a return to buying positions above the 0.8450 level.
USD/TRY Pair Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair is attempting to rise, and if it succeeds in surpassing the 34 lira level, it could drive prices upwards towards 34.50 and 35 lira. This scenario would be invalidated by a return of prices below the 34 lira level.
BTC/USD Analysis:
Bitcoin is trying to shake off the selling pressure. If prices successfully surpass the psychological barrier of 60,000 dollars, we could see a bullish wave targeting 66,000 dollars and 72,000 dollars. This optimistic scenario would be invalidated by a decline below the 60,000-dollar level.
ETH/USD Analysis:
Ethereum is attempting to reduce losses. If prices manage to break above the 2,550-dollar level, this could drive the price to retest 2,800 dollars.
XRP/USD Analysis:
Ripple is attempting to hold above the 0.55-dollar level, which could reduce previous losses and drive a rise towards 0.60 and 0.65 dollars.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis:
Gold continues to trade positively as long as it remains above the 2,460-dollar level. A break above the 2,520-dollar level on the 4-hour frame could lead to new record highs, targeting 2,600 dollars and 2,700 dollars. This bullish scenario would be invalidated by a break below the 2,460-dollar level.
Crude Oil (WTI) Analysis:
Crude oil continues to trade under pressure, approaching a crucial level at 70 dollars per barrel. The bearish scenario would be invalidated by a return of prices above the 73-dollar level.
Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis:
Silver is attempting to reduce losses. Holding above the 27.50-dollar level could drive prices to rise to 29 dollars, and surpassing this level could achieve gains targeting 30.50 dollars.
Natural Gas (NG) Analysis:
Natural gas continues to trade below the psychological barrier at 2.20 dollars, which could drive prices to close the price gap and target 1.80 dollars.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Analysis:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is attempting to hold above the 41,000-point level, and surpassing the 55-day moving average could indicate a strong rise targeting 42,500 points. This positive scenario would be invalidated by a break below the 40,000-point level.
S&P 500 (SPX) Analysis:
The index remains stable above the 5,500-point level, which could drive prices upwards towards 5,700 and 5,900 points. This positive scenario would be invalidated by a break below the 5,500-point level.
NASDAQ Analysis:
The NASDAQ index continues to trade under pressure, but surpassing the 19,250-point level could push prices upwards towards 20,400 points.
Russell 2000 (RUSSELL 2000) Analysis:
The index could see an upward movement towards 2,225 points if it succeeds in surpassing the 2,150-point level, with gains potentially extending to 2,320 points. This positive scenario would be invalidated by prices remaining below 2,150 points.
FTSE 100 (FTSE 100) Analysis:
The index maintains its positivity above the 8,200-point level, which could drive prices upwards towards 8,400 and 8,600 points. This positive scenario would be invalidated by a break below the 8,200-point level.
DAX (DAX) Analysis:
The index could see a freefall towards 18,000 points if it remains below the 18,750-point level. This bearish scenario would be invalidated by a return to buying positions above 18,750 points.
CAC 40 (CAC 40) Analysis:
The index is trading under pressure, with prices remaining below the 7,600-point level, potentially driving the index down towards 7,200 points.
Nikkei 225 (NIKKEI 225) Analysis:
The index could experience a freefall towards 35,000 points if it succeeds in breaking the 37,000-point level.
Conclusion:
We have reached the end of today’s daily technical analysis. Thank you for following along, and we wish you a successful trading day. Best regards, and stay safe.
DXY outlookWe have a change of character at 100.940 and a break of structure at 101.600. Waiting for price to make a retest of 100.940 to see the continuation of the bullish leg beyond 101.850.
Let's wait and see and act accordingly. Keep in mind tomorrow is NFP (6 Sept).
DXY USD 1WDXY ~ NSE:DOLLAR ~ 1W
#DXY Movement is always in the opposite direction of #Bitcoin.
Looking at this Chart, #DXY Loss of Momentum and breakdown of this support line.
Send Bitcoin price $100,000+ in 2025 Q1
DXY / US DOLLAR INDEX🔍 DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Analysis: 4-Hour Timeframe 📉
The DXY chart on a 4-hour timeframe highlights significant upcoming times where price movements may present trading opportunities. It’s essential to analyze these signals in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• BUY DATE - September 12, 2024, 04:00 - Green Line: This time indicates a potential local low, offering favorable conditions for accumulating DXY or entering long positions.
• BUY DATE - September 19, 2024, 00:00 - Green Line: Another potential local low, suggesting favorable conditions for buying.
• BUY DATE - October 7, 2024, 06:00 - Green Line: This time marks another potential local low, indicating favorable conditions to enter long positions.
When working with this 4-hour timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
DXY HTF price actionDXY looking bearish here. .5 Fib level around the $89-$91 looks to be the next move on HTF charts if it can't hold $99-$97
This is not financial advice. Happy Trading!
Liquidity building up on the DXY. Will price respect the level?There's alot of liquidity above our current price (premium) if price really wants to go lower we can expect price to seduce people in with our current trend line then suddenly spike up, hitting people's stop loss and then pushing down to its intended direction.
Or price could do the complete opposite (Be flexible).
IDEA DXY SHORT hi traders
I think that the dollar index under these circumstances since "Persistent" inflation in the US is on the rise and Which will lead to a 25-point interest rate cut
i think us dollad index bearish this week
DXYDXY formed ,as shown, a five waves as impulse and a 3 waves abc correction, and that corrective move shows a good respect of the last bearish wave and make "throw under" .
DXY IS still not good enough to buy until price passing 101.783.
DXY "Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola ola My Dear,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist DXY "Dollar Index" Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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DXY A NEW BULL MARKET TO BEGIN from 99/98 Zone DEFLATION PHASEThe chart posted is the cash US $ based on the fib relationships we should see one last drop below 100.60 target and drop into a 98.14 to 99.60 focus on 98.88 . This should also see the PEAK in GOLD the SP 500 as Most markets around the world . The cycle of deflationary forces should VERY CLEAR come mid oct and be in force for the next 18.8 months to as long as 3.2 years Data based on ALL DATA going back to 1902 and some of which s dates back to 1626
DOLLAR INDEX DXY going below 100? cmp : 101.344
looking for 96 levels in upcoming few weeks.
looking to stabilize around 95-97 for rest of the year.
15 min entry DXY on BEARISH DAILY TFabove chart (daily)
- price move aggressively downward (BEAR BIAS) to swipe ERL
- followed by HIGH QUALITY FVG WHY?
CONDITION 1: TAKING LOW LIQUIDITY CONDITION 2 : STRAIGHT 3 CANDLE MOVES; CONDITION 3, CLOSING BELOW IFVG
below chart (15 mins)
- Price did manipulation taking upside liquidity
- Followed by bearish FVG
- I am waiting inside 0,5-0,618 being swiped and closing below 0,5 fib line
- entry SHORT toward lowest internal liquidity zone (iFVG) or creates another LOW
DXY - USD overview 04.09.2024Will we see such move on #Dxy and price to drop down to 97.5? or we will see the drop to that area (97.5) straight away without prior move to the upside?
The Beginning of DXY DeclineThe DXY (US Dollar Index) is showing strong signs of entering a downward trend. The attached chart reinforces this view, highlighting the development of Wave 4, which is likely nearing completion. A continuation of the decline in Wave 5 is expected, in line with technical analysis and external factors.
Wave Structure: The chart clearly shows the DXY in a corrective pattern, with Wave 4 approaching its peak around the 0.618 retracement level at 102.030. Once this wave concludes, we can anticipate the continuation of the downward trend towards the completion of Wave 5, likely targeting levels below 100.
Bearish Channel: The DXY remains within a well-defined descending channel, indicating sustained selling pressure. This suggests that the overall momentum is bearish, with further declines expected as the channel holds.
External Factors: Slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth, particularly in key areas such as manufacturing and employment, has weakened the dollar’s outlook. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt rate hikes are dampening investor confidence in the dollar.
In conclusion, both technical analysis and external economic indicators suggest the DXY is likely to continue its decline. Traders should remain cautious as Wave 5 approaches, with potential downside targets below 100 as the dollar weakens further.
Will the dollar index break its dynamic resistance?According to the resistance in the range of 101.880, after breaking this area, you can expect to climb up to the range of 102.227 and 102.599. Otherwise, after breaking its current support in the range of 101.500, we can expect this index to drop to the range of 101.170 and 100.701.
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 101.675.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 102.148 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.769
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Pre-BoC interest rate decision4th September
DXY: Still in consolidation. Looking for downside, needs to break 101.50 (23.6%), could trade down to 101.15
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6165 SL 20 TP 60
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6750 SL 20 TP 70
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3160 SL 30 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1080 SL 25 TP 65
USDJPY: Sell 144.70 SL 40 TP 110
USDCHF: Sell 0.8450 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.3580 SL 30 TP 60
Gold: Watch 2480-2470 support area,
If held look for bounce, broken could trade down to 2440
Check the trend It is expected that after some fluctuation, the continuation of the upward trend will be formed up to the specified resistance levels. Then there will be a possibility of changing the trend
DXY is approaching resistance with potential for a reversalFundamental Perspective:
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in Aug but fell short of the 47.5 forecast. This marks the 21st monthly contraction in US factory activity over the past 22 months. This persistent weakness highlights the strain of high Fed interest rates on the manufacturing sector.
The focus remains on the US jobs data, where further softening of the labor market could bolster expectations for a 50 bps rate cut and weigh on the dollar.
Technical Perspective:
The dollar pared recent losses but remained within the descending channel, with the price approaching the 102.50 resistance. If DXY regains its bearish momentum below 102.50, a further decline to retest the 100.60 swing low might occur. MACD is also holding below the zero threshold, supporting the potential for further downside. Conversely, if DXY breaks above the 102.50 resistance and channel's upper bound, the index could extend its gains to the 103.80 resistance.
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 4/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - 4/9/2024
Introduction
Welcome, I’m Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, bringing you my detailed outlook on the most significant currency pairs, commodities, and financial indices for today, Wednesday, September 4, 2024.
First, let’s review the key economic data expected today, which could impact price movements upon release:
• Tuesday, September 3 Session: The release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Manufacturing PMI issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The figures came in below expectations, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity and weakness in the U.S. economy. This decline could negatively impact the U.S. dollar, as markets might interpret this data as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adopt more accommodative monetary policies and move away from tightening measures to support the economy and avoid recession.
• Wednesday, September 4 Session: The U.S. job openings report is scheduled to be released at 5:00 PM Mecca time.
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
We observe that the U.S. Dollar Index is trading under pressure near the previous closing level. Trading below the 102 level keeps the index within a bearish trend channel, making it vulnerable to further decline towards the 100.3 and 99 levels in the medium term. The dollar will not experience positive corrections unless it surpasses the 102 level.
EUR/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair remains stable above the key support level at 1.1000. Attempts are ongoing to end the corrections and rise towards 1.1200. This bullish scenario will remain valid unless the price breaks below the 1.1000 level.
GBP/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to break below the 1.3100 level. If prices succeed in breaking this level, the pair will enter a downward corrective wave targeting 1.2970 and 1.2850.
USD/JPY Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to return to the downward trend. Breaking the 145 yen level and moving below the 55-day moving average may end the positive corrections and return the pair to the downward trend targeting 140 yen.
USD/CHF Pair Analysis:
The pair is hovering around the previous closing level. A return below the 0.8510 level could push the pair back into a negative trend, targeting 0.8370 and 0.8240.
AUD/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair is stabilizing below the 55-day moving average and below the previous closing price. Breaking the 0.6670 level could push the pair back down towards 0.6500.
NZD/USD Pair Analysis:
The pair is declining and stabilizing below the 0.6225 level. Remaining below this resistance could lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 0.6100 and 0.6000.
USD/CAD Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to resume the upward trend and end the corrections. The pair will only succeed in this by breaking through the 1.3600 level, potentially targeting 1.3750 and 1.3950.
GBP/JPY Pair Analysis:
The pair remains under downward pressure. It will not be freed from this pressure unless it breaks above the 196 yen level, which could restore the upward momentum towards 202 and 208 yen.
EUR/JPY Pair Analysis:
The pair is trading under pressure. Remaining below 164 yen could lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 158 and 153 yen.
EUR/GBP Pair Analysis:
The pair is trying to regain upward momentum in the short term. Surpassing the 55-day moving average and climbing above the 0.8450 level could lead to a rise targeting 0.8575 and 0.8650.
USD/TRY Pair Analysis:
The pair is attempting to end corrections and regain upward momentum. A return above the 34 lira level could restore gains and push prices towards 34.50 and 35.00 lira.
BTC/USD Analysis:
Bitcoin is under pressure. Trading below the 60,000-dollar level may keep it under downward threats towards 52,000 and 44,000 dollars. Surpassing the 60,000-dollar level is necessary to relieve Bitcoin from selling pressure.
ETH/USD Analysis:
Ethereum is still under pressure. Staying below the 2700-dollar level may lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 2100 and 1800 dollars.
XRP/USD Analysis:
Ripple is hovering around the critical support level of 0.55 dollars. Breaking this level will lead to a continuation of the downward trend towards 0.48 and 0.44 dollars.
Gold Analysis (XAU/USD):
Gold is trading above the upward trend line. Staying above the 2460-dollar level keeps the bullish scenario intact, with the possibility of reaching new levels if the 2520-dollar level is breached. Breaking the 2460-dollar level may push gold back into deep corrections towards 2400 and 2325 dollars.
Crude Oil Analysis (WTI):
Crude oil is trading under pressure. Breaking the 73-dollar per barrel level may lead to a price drop towards 70 and 67 dollars.
Silver Analysis (XAG/USD):
Silver is showing negative behavior. A return above the 29-dollar level is necessary to maintain positivity, while a decline could target 27.5 and 26 dollars.
Natural Gas Analysis (NG):
Natural gas is at a critical psychological barrier at 2.20 dollars. Exceeding this level could lead to gains towards 2.40 and 2.60 dollars, while failing to break it could push prices back down towards 2.00 dollars.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Analysis:
A price drop to the 41,000-point level reinforces the negative scenario towards the 40,000-point level. Stability above the 41,000-point level is crucial to avoid further decline.
S&P 500 (SPX) Analysis:
The index is approaching a significant support area at 5500 points. Breaking this support could lead the S&P 500 down to 5300 points.
NASDAQ Analysis:
Stability above the 19,250-point level enhances the chances of rising towards 24,000 and 25,000 points. Breaking the 19,250 level could lead to a decline towards 18,250 points.
Russell 2000 (RUSSELL 2000) Analysis:
The index is declining, approaching a crucial support at 2150 points. Breaking this level could lead to further declines.
FTSE 100 (FTSE 100) Analysis:
The index is trading below the 8400-point level. Stability above this level is necessary to regain positive momentum.
DAX (DAX) Analysis:
The index is attempting to break a significant support level at 18,750 points. Breaking this support could lead to a free fall towards 18,200 points.
CAC 40 (CAC 40) Analysis:
The index is trying to return to the downward trend. Stability below the 7600-point level may push the index towards further declines to 7200 points.
Nikkei 225 (NIKKEI 225) Analysis:
The index is declining with the return of yen strength. Stability above the 37,000-point level is necessary to maintain a positive scenario, while breaking this level could lead to a decline towards 35,000 and 33,000 points.
In Conclusion:
We have reached the end of today’s daily technical analysis. Thank you for following along, and we wish you a successful trading day. Stay safe.
This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to stay updated with economic developments to make informed decisions.
