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US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEXUS DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEXUS DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX

US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX

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DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00. Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
TVC:DXY
by Mike_SnD
1
Dollar near term strenght coming, Weekly demand holdingThe DOllar has been in a decline over the last couple of months, We can see from tracking how the COT INDEX COT Index in Forex for 6 months and 36 months The 6-month and 36-month time frames typically refer to the historical analysis of COT data for specific currency pairs, providing insights into: 6-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 6 months. It shows the trends in how market participants (e.g., hedge funds or commercial traders) have been positioned recently. Traders typically use this shorter time frame to gauge recent trends and near-term sentiment. A higher COT Index value indicates that speculators have a larger net long position, suggesting potential bullish sentiment, and vice versa for a lower COT Index. 36-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 3 years. It provides a longer-term view of trader positioning, helping to identify historical trends and market cycles. A higher 36-month COT Index suggests persistent bullish positioning over the longer term, we can see the Dollar has been bought up at WEEKLY Demand, we will start looking for a shift to buy the Dollar on a daily chart.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mike_SnD
DXY:Pay attention to the retest of the daily chart supportOn Tuesday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally declined. The intraday price peaked at 104.444, bottomed out at 103.917, and closed at 104.189. From the perspective of the daily chart, the level of 103.80 below serves as a crucial watershed for the wave trend. As long as the price remains above this level, a short-term bullish position is advisable for the time being. Meanwhile, the short-term support of the four-hour chart is in the 104.10 area. Currently, the price in the short term is fluctuating and is likely to continue to retest the support area of the daily chart. Therefore, in trading operations, focus on the support of the daily chart and anticipate an upward movement. Trading strategy: buy@103.70-103.80 TP:104.50-105.00 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoBlackwood
US Dollar's Worst Month Since 2023: DXY Faces Make-or-Break The greenback ends Q1 under pressure as soft inflation data, central bank divergence, and rising risk appetite weigh on the long-term outlook. 📉 A Fragile Finish to Q1 for the Dollar As we close out March and head into Q2, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2023, erasing nearly half of its four-month rally. From a high of 110.00 in January 2025, the index has dropped to a recent low of 102.84, highlighting growing fragility in the dollar's long-term structure. The 7.2% slide since the start of the year reflects shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, global interest rate convergence, and an increase in risk-on sentiment. With the DXY trading around 103.80 at the time of writing, bulls are struggling to reclaim momentum above the critical 104.00 barrier—a zone that has served as both support and resistance over the last eight months. 🔍 What's Driving the Weakness? Several fundamental forces have contributed to the dollar's Q1 decline: 📉 1. Cooling Inflation and Dovish Fed Signals February and March inflation prints came in softer than expected, leading markets to price in rate cuts sooner than the Fed's official guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, but recent FOMC minutes and commentary from regional presidents suggest that a mid-year rate cut is increasingly likely—a development that undermines the dollar's yield advantage. 🌍 2. Global Central Bank Catch-Up The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have recently resisted premature rate cut expectations, with hawkish commentary supporting their respective currencies. Meanwhile, Japan's move away from the ultra-loose monetary policy has lifted the yen, reducing the dollar's appeal as a carry-trade favourite. 💹 3. Equities, Risk-On Sentiment, and Gold Strength The S&P 500's record highs, strong demand for emerging markets, and gold's breakout to new all-time highs are clear indicators of a market rotating into risk assets and inflation hedges—further weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar. 📊 Technical Analysis: 104.00 Is the Line in the Sand The DXY's decline from 110.00 has retraced 50% of the four-month rally, with a firm low found at 102.84 earlier this month. While that level has provided near-term support, upside momentum remains capped below 104.00, a multi-month resistance level that must be reclaimed to reestablish bullish control. 🔺 Key Resistance Levels: 104.00 – Multi-month pivot zone, critical for trend shift 104.46 – Minor breakout level; confirmation of bullish continuation 105.96 – Short-term upside target if 104.46 is cleared 🔻 Key Support Zones: 103.58–103.25 – Minor support zone just below current levels 102.84 – March low; major near-term support 102.39–102.00 – Final downside target if 102.84 fails A break below 102.84 could accelerate bearish momentum into the 102.00 psychological level, especially if April's macro data confirms a slowing US economy or rising expectations for rate cuts. 🧭 April's Outlook: All Eyes on 104.00 The month of April will be pivotal in shaping the medium- to long-term outlook for the dollar. Key catalysts to watch include: March jobs report (NFP) – Signs of labour market cooling will intensify rate cut bets. Core PCE inflation – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could confirm the disinflation trend. Geopolitical developments – Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine could spark temporary safe-haven flows, but may not be enough to reverse the downtrend. Unless the DXY can close April above 104.46, it risks confirming a longer-term bearish reversal, which could open the door to sub-100 scenarios later in the year—especially if US macro data continues to soften and global rate differentials tighten further. 🔄 Scenarios to Watch: Bulls Need a Breakout 📈 Bullish Scenario: Price holds above 103.25, reclaims 104.00, and breaks 104.46 Momentum builds toward 105.96 April data surprises to the upside, delaying Fed cuts 📉 Bearish Scenario: Rejection at 104.00, breakdown below 102.84 Push into 102.00 support zone or lower April macro data reinforces dovish narrative, equity strength continues ⚠️ Final Thoughts: Cautious Tone, Technical Pressure The US dollar is ending Q1 under clear technical and fundamental pressure, with the DXY sitting at a critical inflection point. While the March low at 102.84 may hold in the short term, failure to break above 104.00–104.46 will leave the index vulnerable to further downside. With central bank divergence fading and risk appetite on the rise, the greenback's role as a defensive play is weakening. Unless April delivers a surprise upside catalyst, the path of least resistance appears to remain lower.
TVC:DXY
by Rotuma
DXY:Maintain a long position above the daily line supportOn Monday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally showed an upward trend. On that day, the price rose to a maximum of 104.422, dropped to a minimum of 103.814, and closed at 104.285. Looking back at the price performance on Monday, after the opening in the morning, the price initially came under pressure and declined in the short term. Subsequently, when the price reached the 103.80-90 area, it stopped falling and then started to rise, and finally closed with a large bullish candlestick on the daily chart. Currently, since the retracement and rally on Monday have provided confirmation, if the price remains above the 103.80 level in the subsequent period, a swing long position can be taken. In the short term, on the four-hour chart, attention should be temporarily paid to the support in the range of 104.00-104.10. After the price reaches this level in the future, further upward movement should be observed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance in the area of 104.50-104.90 on the upside. Trading strategy: buy@104.00-104.10 TP:104.50-104.90 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoBlackwood
US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations. Factors Driving the Bearish Turn: • Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations: o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal. • Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies: o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers. o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty. • Data from the CFTC: o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment. • Global Economic Factors: o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar: • Impact on Global Trade: o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports. • Inflationary Pressures: o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise. • Investment Flows: o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations. Market Analysis: • Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook. • It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly. • The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar. In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
DXY March 23 Analysis and 24 IdeaDXY March 24 Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session Premium and discount on the daily range No News March 23 Analysis I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI is search of higher prices at the beginning of the week, and celebrate Price did. Wicking to the March 6 buy stop. On the daily range Price is coming up to the 50 level. Price in a Premium took session buy stops, lowered to equal sell stops in a discount in London, then rallied to March 6 buy stops and up into the Daily BISI. Great delivery. Premium to discount to Premium. Expanded higher creating equal highs in Asia, to retrace, consolidate in London, to reverse in NY and close consolidating in a premium. *Note the event horizon is to the sell side March 24 Idea I would like to see Price come down in Asia and London to the 50 maybe take the equal sell stops at the .618 and could rally for higher prices in NY. I consider that until Asia delivers all above could change. I also consider that no news today or tomorrow could create high resistance days, stay sharp.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY + Progressive Trend Tracker + VIDYA + GANN square of nineProgressive Trend Tracker (PTT) is a development combining Bollinger Bands with Highest Highs and Lowest Lows by K.Hasan Alpay & Anıl Özekşi. As observed on the charts the reading is well above the lower band and indicating the strength in the DXY. The three green soldiers bring message of strength from the world of candle stick patterns. The VIDYA ( Variable Dynamic Moving Average is the black line on the chart and is the VAR based moving average. The price above this line also signals strength in the index. The support and resistance lines is coming from the inbuilt indicator that display nearest support and resistance from GANN Square of 9 box. The RED line is the strongest resistance here and the blue line is the moderate support.
INDEX:DXY
by satyajbims
DXY March 23 week aheadDXY March 23 week ahead Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session Premium and Premium on the daily range News Monday 9:45 When Price lowered into the Monthly SIBI from sept 2024 for the second week but and then rallied for higher prices, I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI. Wait and see what Sunday does. However if we see lower prices beginning of the week we could see Price rally to the buy side target and rebalance March 6 daily SIBI be the target for higher prices.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY March 23 Weekly Analysis DXY March 23 Weekly Analysis In hindsight it gets easier to see. Reading from the 4 hour chart I can see from March 5 price sold off to then consolidate on the 50, sells off early the next week making the low on Tuesday then rallies to engineer equal highs and closes at the 50. This past week Price come just below the 50 off consolidation again sells off early in the week making the low on Tuesday and hit deep discount and rallies closing this week in a Premium. *Note the magnet that the event horizon played this past week-learning it value. *Note price came down to below .70 on the parent range and wicked into the Monthly BISI from oct 2024 *Note that Price came to the .70 of the daily range and came through to the .618 creating equal lows. Daily chart *Note price 3 week narrowed range I pointed out earlier this week *Note Price was in a discount until Thursday coming through to a premium on the hourly chart Beginning the week consolidating on the 50, taking sell stops and creating equal lows to close. Price lowers to take sell stops and creates equal lows on Tuesday in a deep discount. Wednesday Price launches to the 50 level taking Friday/Mondays equal highs. Sells off back into a discount. Thursday rallies to just take equal highs created from March 10. Retracement to the 50 level and upper quadrant of the FVG Thursday created. Friday rallies to barely take the buy side, then wicks down to the same FVG quadrant level creating equal lows and rallies higher again taking Thursdays buy stops and creates equal highs.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXYFundamental Drivers Affecting DXY Next Week Department Responsible: US PMIs: S&P Global. Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Trade Policy: US Treasury Dept Key Events and Data Releases S&P Global Flash PMIs (March 24) Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 51.9 (Previous: 52.7). Services PMI Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 51.0). Impact: Above Forecast: Supports USD (DXY↑) on resilient economic activity. Below Forecast: Weakens USD (DXY↓) as Fed rate-cut bets rise. Trump’s Tariff Implementation (April 2) Scope: Potential 25% tariffs on EU/China imports. Impact: Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for USD (DXY↑). Trade War Fears: Could hurt US growth prospects, pressuring USD (DXY↓). Fed Speeches FOMC Member Bostic (March 24): Hawkish rhetoric (delayed cuts) supports DXY↑; dovish hints weigh on DXY↓. DXY Technical Outlook Scenario Bias Key Levels Catalyst Bullish=Strong PMIs + Hawkish Fed + Tariff Escalation Bearish= Weak PMIs + Dovish Fed + Tariff De-escalation Neutral= Mixed Data + Geopolitical Calm Fed’s Data Dependency: The Fed remains "meeting-by-meeting," making incoming growth, inflation, and jobs data critical for USD volatility. Bearish Momentum: DXY holds below key technical indicators , signaling a bearish bias. A break below 103.30 could accelerate declines toward 102.84 Trump Policies: Tariffs and immigration policies amplify USD volatility, with risks skewed toward stagflation (weak growth + high inflation). Conclusion Bearish Bias Dominates despite 3days buying momentum Weak PMIs and dovish Fed rhetoric could push DXY toward 102.90. or 100 Tariff escalation risks and resilient US data are the only bullish catalysts. Volatility Triggers: April 2 Tariff Deadline: Monitor for trade war escalation. Fed Speeches: Bostic’s tone will set short-term USD direction. the fed member speech will be priced in terms of stance for clear directional bias .
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub