DXY trade ideas
Market News Report - 27 October 2024The greenback was again a bullish force in the past week. Other currencies that put up an upward fight include the Swiss franc and euro. Then, the Bank of Canada delivered an expected cut in the CAD interest rate.
Let's see what to expect for our beloved forex market in the coming weeks in our market report.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to recent positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations.
Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month.
Keep an eye out for NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data this coming Friday. This will probably be the next USD driver, along with the US elections next Tuesday.
The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken several times about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals).
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore.
While the bearish bias remains, the dollar is gaining amid a broad pullback. This idea could prove even more relevant if Donald Trump wins the election on 05 November. Upcoming labour and GDP data will also be key in determining USD's long-term future.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate recently. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December.
The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts, breaking the key support at 1.07774 (but only just). We need to see how this level reacts this week - so it's not out of the question. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. Furthermore, a threat of a trade tariff with Trump could be negative.
However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. So, we are changing our long-term bias from 'bearish' to 'weak bearish' now.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates.
As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower.
We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, weak CPI, labour, or GDP data should be expected to back up the bearish bias. To add further to this point, the last GDP print shows a poor UK economy. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief.
Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold at the next meeting on Wednesday (but a hike at the start of next year).
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement.
The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes. However, high iron prices have supported the former.
Finally, recent positive unemployment data gives a base case for a hold in the RBA interest rate meeting early next month.
After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. While this market looked bullish, this pullback does surprisingly indicate otherwise.
Still, we are quite far from the major support level at 0.63484, but consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future.
It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude.
Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias.
Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%.
The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.'
Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers.
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is almost at the point of knocking on the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this increase. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data will send CAD lower.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%.
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan.
Conversely, 'safe haven flows,' and geopolitical risks can positively support the currency.
As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates.
Conclusion
In summary:
The USD seems particularly strong (despite being fundamentally bearish), with the upcoming NFP release and US elections as the events to watch.
This week's main high-impact news event is Wednesday's JPY interest rate decision.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
DXY TRADE SETUPINDEX : DXY
✔ Classic BULLISH formation
DXY is holding continuous UP Trend so after market retracement I can take BUY entry . If your analysis matches it take a trade otherwise skip the trade.
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Idea for next week.The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at $104.123, up by 0.10%, but hovers close to a key pivot point at $104.144. This level aligns with the 50-day EMA of $104.146, marking it as a critical zone for short-term direction.
Should DXY break above $104.15, we might see upward momentum build, pushing toward immediate resistance at $104.281, with additional targets at $104.407 and $104.545.
However, if the dollar falls below $104.144, support at $104.006 could be tested, with further downside risk toward $103.820. Traders should note that maintaining above the pivot is essential for sustaining a bullish trend in the near term.
THE US DOLLAR is still King?The US Dollar Index has found support near all that former resistance from the past decade. The polarity here in the US Dollar is very real.
Caution With $DXY At SupportThe TVC:DXY is touching the 200 week moving average and also the median of the bear pitchfork. Double support usually provide a bounce, those who are bullish the 50 basis cut might be trapped and rekt.
DXYDxy overall is uptrend as we can see dxy is finishing making a pullback which means next week we may see USD to be strong and we countinue to buy usd/jpy,sell gbp/usd and so on.have a good day
Dxy could rally on Monday Obviously, we tapped into our h4 demand area. W reversal pattern has been formed, its only right to buy and not sell .
DXY Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in an
Uptrend and the index
Is already making a bullish
Rebound from the rising
Support line so we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Dxy is bullish (perfect trend)We have seen a positive reaction to the upside as we close the trading week📈⬆️.
Price had two trading zones that both meet the criteria for a probable setup☑️📝, and we have seen a reaction from zone 1 after sellside liquidity was taken. Price went on to break structure giving a bullish market structure shift and a new trading zone.
We might see price rise further to the upside until it reaches an unmitigated supply zone.
End of week review: DXY As we reach the week's closing, the dollar is expected to create another swing high here.
With the supply in place after reaching a take profit level, it may be expected to be a failure to reach a higher high.
We will see come next week what they decide on 🧐
Dollar Index - Election Years Comes With Volatile SwingsThe U.S. Dollar Index tracks the strength of the dollar against a basket of major currencies. DXY was originally developed by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1973 to provide an external bilateral trade-weighted average value of the U.S. dollar against global currencies. U.S. Dollar Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" (value), compared to other currencies. The following six currencies are used to calculate the index:
Euro (EUR) 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP) 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD) 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK) 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
US Dollar Slips, Business Spending Rises: The dollar edges lower despite a 4-week winning streak, as positive economic data dampens rate cut expectations.
US business spending plans exceed expectations, while German business sentiment improves.
50/50 going into next week even though business has been conducted @ 104.450. There is still the potential for next weeks price action to attack the daily order block @ 104.801 whilst punishing buyers by continuing to sell-off to 103.444, a target previously mentioned last week.
Gold, DXY & USDJPY UpdateVery dull market conditions today. Not much price difference for the Dollar, Gold & USDJPY. Markets have been ranging for the past 2 days.
We should see price volatility pick up again from Monday.
Unmasking DXY's Bullish Potential with Volume ProfileH ello,
The unusually high market activity around the 100.5 level indicated strong bullish accumulation. The yellow ellipses highlight the volume and price levels. You can see that volume decreases both above and below this key level. This accumulation is evident because the price broke out of a bullish consolidation pattern, as shown in the left yellow circle, reaching a high of 103.9, indicated by the yellow line. This is the current level, where you may notice exceptionally high market activity. As the price remains above the green demand zone, the red supply zone may be tested, as suggested by the volume profile.
Regards,
Ely
US DOLLAR time to SHORT?Hi Everyone!
Excited to update a confirming possible longer higher time frame pullback on DXY, please refer back to my 2 education videos on TVC:DXY to see that what is happening now was indeed a possibility.
I have another CAPITALCOM:SILVER trade on, Im sorry I did not have time to immediately update it here. We have a mine structure break on M5, which I cannot post for some reason because the time frame is too small.
But its there, there is a confirmed structure break on Silver, Basically the important price level that must hold is right around 33.250. I Need to update a silver chart for you all. Because if price pullbacks in this zone, this will all of yalls opportunity to buy there again for a smaller Stop loss.
Dollar Holding Steady For The Fourth Consecutive Week, Now What?Hey there,
It's been a while since we saw the dollar run as smoothly as its running now, recovering more than 50% of its value since last quarter.
However, this growth doesn't come without a concerning question, how sustainable is this run?
With key payroll and inflation data due next week while also moving closer to the election we're likely to see a very active market in the coming weeks.
So, to get an idea of whats happening and what you should prepare for check out today's video and begin taking advantage.
DXY at support after hitting major trend lineIntraday Update: The US Dollar index is at channel support into the end of the week, so a decisive break of the 103.98 level could usher in some selling into week end. But bears should be cautious here at support.
DXY: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 103.908
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
US $ DXY & BRICKS 2025 Q1HELLO TRADERS
As I can see DXY tested a resistance zone and a down trend line on 3rd test technically high chances to drop DXY incoming days fib retracement is also another indication technically on daily charts next rate cuts coming soon US Elections a week ahead world geopolitical wars remember wars not a single war only escalating day by day Putin War in Ukraine and north Korea officially Involvement & Bricks with US 35 Trillion Debt all these things are behind the charts too noting hidden DE-DOLLARIZEING so it's a great opportunity to join the rally and bull Rally to Crypto markets ^ energy with commodities more new ATH Coming banks and Institutions are accumulating shiny metal. Technically + fundamentally with a low risk and looking for bigger rewards its a great trade idea in my view what's Ur friends we love your support don't forget to boost if you really love our given analysis its always be appreciate Ur comments and share which gave us more energy to bring u incoming great markets updates technically and fundamentally
Make a proper search before any trade
Stay Tuned
End of the week market analysis25th October
DXY: Consolidating along 104 round number (50% fib retracement) could trade down to 103.85 price level
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5970 SL 20 TP 55
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6610 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Sell 1.30 SL 25 TP 90
EURUSD: Looking for reaction around 1.0840
USDJPY: Buy 152.20 SL 40 TP 100
USDCHF: Do Nothing
USDCAD: Looking for bounce, retail sales data pending Buy 1.3825 SL 15 TP 40
Gold: Likely to fluctuate between 2700 and 2740 while directional bias develops
USD Ready to Surge? Technical Setup Shows Big Potential for DXYTrend Overview:
The DXY (US Dollar Index) is currently trading at 103.706, showing a clear potential for a bullish breakout. Based on the chart:
The downtrend has been respected with a descending trendline starting from the highs around 115.000, but it is currently testing the trendline resistance. If the price can break above this descending trendline, it signals a reversal of the long-term bearish momentum.
There is a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a strong reversal pattern in technical analysis, further indicating a potential bullish move.
Key Levels:
Buy Level:
Suggested entry for a long position is around 103.500, as the price has breached a significant resistance zone and the volume profile shows increased activity around this price level.
Stop Loss:
To manage risk, the recommended stop loss is at 102.500, positioned below recent support zones, ensuring a safe distance from potential pullbacks.
Take Profit Zone:
The next major resistance zone lies around 106.000 and higher towards 108.000, which offers a good reward-to-risk ratio for this trade.
Volume Profile:
The volume profile shows that a significant amount of trading volume has taken place around the current price levels, suggesting strong institutional participation. If the price breaks above the trendline with higher volume, it may accelerate upward movement.
Market Sentiment:
Given the potential breakout from the inverse head and shoulders, and the fact that the DXY has held support around 103.000, this suggests growing bullish sentiment.
The chart structure and volume activity indicate this is a favorable setup to enter a buy position.
Disclaimer:
The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The content creator is not liable for any losses incurred from trading based on this information. Illegal financial activities will be prosecuted in this world and carry spiritual consequences in the afterlife.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 103.83
1st Support: 103.38
1st Resistance: 104.42
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DXY Gap Up Trade Plan (Sell the Gap)The plan anticipates a gap up in the DXY at the market open, where bullish momentum from recent economic data might drive initial upward movement. However, given the overextension of the index in recent sessions, the strategy is to sell into this gap, expecting the market to retrace to fill it, and possibly continue lower.
