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Hang Seng Index - A potential multi bagger in the long termRead the latest article here With this mask off policy, we can expect more people to come out of their home and resume their pre-Covid days - shopping, meeting friends at cafe, more dining out, weekend travel,etc. This is good news for local consumption along with the incentives that the Government is currently offering. I posted here to go LONG on HSI late last year when it breached the all important weekly bullish trend line. Macroeconomic data and news gave me the assurance that the major storms have passed and it is only a matter of time before Hong Kong picked up its pace and roar back into action once more. This week will , imo be another good opportunity to go LONG or accumulate for those who had done so.
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
Why It Might Be Time For Hong Kong Stocks To Come BackThe Chinese economy is currently facing challenges, and the momentum of Chinese stocks is not great. It may seem questionable why anyone would choose to invest in Chinese stocks when there are other high-performing options available. Yesterday, the leader of Hong Kong expressed his intention to enact stricter national security laws in the near future. These laws would build upon the comprehensive legislation imposed by Beijing on the city in 2020. The leader emphasized that Hong Kong "could not afford to wait" in implementing these measures. This development is being closely monitored by businesspeople, diplomats, and academics. There is concern that the new laws, specifically Article 23, which would target espionage, state secrets, and foreign influence, could have a significant impact on Hong Kong as a global financial center. Is it a good opportunity to buy Hong Kong stocks now? It is important to remember that during times of deep pessimism, there can be high opportunities for investors. Warren Buffett often advises that it can be profitable to be greedy when others are fearful, and vice versa. In the short term, investing can be driven more by narratives and emotions rather than fundamentals. This can cause prices to deviate from their true value. Eventually, prices reach an extreme and start to revert back to a more reasonable level. From both fundamental and technical perspective, we may be approaching such a turning point for HSI:HSI , as extreme bearishness has led to low valuations that have historically preceded significant price rallies. While valuations may not be the best indicator for short-term returns, they are crucial for long-term returns. Currently, the valuations of Hong Kong stocks, trading at a Price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 7.5, are at record lows compared to their own history and other markets. This makes them attractive for long-term investors. The current valuations offer a margin of safety, as it would take a significant deterioration in the situation or an extended period of poor performance for valuations to be lower than they are now. Since 2009, there were 3 times the Hong Kong stocks’ PE ratio traded below 10, highlighted in the chart above. And all 3 times had offered investors good returns, from 10% to 60%. The current low valuation has been started since Aug 2022. We feel that a small rebound in valuations to more normal levels could generate attractive returns, even if the companies' earnings are not exceptional. Historically, the best returns have been achieved when starting valuations were low and the profit outlook was not optimistic. Summary It's important to note that Hong Kong stocks may not perform as well over the next decade as US stocks did in the previous one. However, if you are willing to hold onto these stocks for long term, they could offer enhanced returns and geographical risk diversification.
HSI:HSILong
by wealth_compass
The Hang Seng Index is Near Important SupportThe Hang Seng Index is Near Important Support The economy of China is hit by the decision to liquidate the developer Evergrande due to a debt of USD 300 billion. Bloomberg writes that this will have huge consequences for all of China. While the S&P 500 index rose by more than 3% since the beginning of January, the Hang Seng index fell by more than 8%. JPMorgan and HSBC point to local government debt, non-performing bank loans and negative sentiment in the private sector. The weekly chart of the stock index Hang Seng (HSI) shows that: → The price is in a downward trend, which is shown by the black line. → The price dropped close to the 2022 minimum. → The RSI indicator is located near the oversold zone. What is important: the price is near the lower border of the long-term channel (shown by orange lines), from which support can be expected. Expectations of investors to lower the interest rate from the Fed may increase the appetite for risky assets, which features Chinese stocks. As Reuters writes, Goldman Sachs noted in its note to clients that hedge funds are actively buying Chinese shares - for the period from January 23 to 25, there was the largest capital inflow in the last 5 years. Perhaps the managers of hedge funds believe that the plans of the Chinese authorities to stimulate the economy for more than $280 billion will become a reality, and the price of the Hang Seng index will make a jump from the lower border of the long-term channel, breaking the black line of the downward trend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
1
Chinese Economy (HSI) Supercycle ReversalThe Chinese economy has had 4 consecutive years of closing in decline. Evidently, the Chinese economy supercycle (as depicted in the chart) indicates that a reversal is well overdue (or superdue in this particular context). By the end of this year, it can be expected to see a relatively massive reversal in the Chinese economy, one that may catch many by surprise. On the daily timeframe, this reversal started in this past week, Monday 01/22/24, where China likely saw its last lowest of the year. There's still potential to test 10/31/22 low and maybe even break it at some point in February, but doing so will imply an even larger repump, leading to potential break of the yearly supercycle. In any event, if China does indeed maintain the recent low as the yearly low, it means it intends to engulf the yearly red cycle this year, latest 2025. But 2025-'26 should mean the chinese economy once again sees a powerful decline. After this, Chinese economy could choose to completely collapse as an economy or overcome odds and revive a green supercycle economy. In my fairest opinion, I think Chinese economy will explode to the upside, likely with fusion technology as the leading catalyst. Artificial Intelligence will ultimately be the wildcard that decides whether this catalyst holds the economy in whole or whether it briefly collapses until further regulation is upheld.
TVC:HSILong
by JuanLagos94
3
Are we close to peak China pessimism?President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus. In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore, China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying on large stimulus. China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment. Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market. Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown. Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the Fed’s pivot towards easing. Check out my other ideas:
TVC:HSILong
by Elite_Forex
HSI - could this be the bottom already ?Over the last 3 days, we witnessed a near 9% rally for the HSI. There were several contributing factors - the Chinese government has injected more stimulus into the market. Read here and of course the 360 degrees turn by famous Jack Ma who bought 271 million shares of its own company, Alibaba, giving the much depressed stock a huge rally, causing a rising tide among the Chinese tech stocks like Tencent, etc. On the weekly chart, we can see the price action on Monday has touched the 2009 year low at 14,588 price level. This is almost 60% down from its peak at 33, 472 in 2018. From a PE ratio perspective, Hong Kong remains the cheapest market and undervalued as well. Of course, many analysts still refused to believe the stimulus will trickle down so fast to boost consumer confidence as these policies remain broad based and lack execution details. However, consumer sentiments are key and emotions are already running high for those who are holding stocks in the red for the last few years. Some will naturally want to offload to cut their losses while others like myself will find this a great opportunity to accumulate. Many things remain unclear - the property market which contributes 1/3 of its country GDP, the escalating local government debts, high unemployment among 16-29 age group and the deflationary environment causing delayed spending (read here ) We can expect more clarity once the Feds start to cut its interest rates expected to be in March as this is the Election year. Joe Biden already helped many students to cancel their students loans (read here ) hoping to get more votes from this younger generation. I think he will have more goodies under his sleeves in the coming months to entice the population at large to garner a bigger winning vote which will naturally help shore up the US stock market. Once US interest rates is lowered, I would expect RMB to start appreciating slowly as it has been on the reverse (depreciation) for almost 8% in 2023. All funds are flowing to US where they can get much higher interest thus the massive outflow of funds from China stock market. China is moving from an investment led approach to one that relies more on consumption approach and that would takes time or years to see the impact and changes. The double digit growth that many has expected of China may be history and a much matured, tamer China will be showcasing its domestic strengths in time to come.
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
Ride the Japanese Wave, Don't Grab That China Falling KnifeIt was nearly three years ago when the China stock market notched a short-term peak. Recall how the world's second-largest economy was initially seen as a growth engine coming out of the worst of the pandemic. An authoritative regime in China, led by President Xi Jinping, crippled the economy's expansion trajectory through harsh ongoing lockdowns and by clamping down on many industries, one after another. Then in early 2023, hope sprang eternal that China would re-open amid a burst of consumer spending, a la what was seen during the 'revenge travel' period in the United States back in 2021 and 2022. That did not come to fruition, and the Hang Seng Index is now down by more than 50% in the last three years. With all that turmoil going on in China, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index has continued to soar. Up more than 20% since February of 2021, the once sleepy Tokyo stock market features among the best momentum readings of all countries. Based on these trends, sticking with the 'long Nikkei, short China' trade should keep working, in my view. Another way to play it is by being long developed market stocks and avoiding emerging market funds (which still have a roughly 20% allocation to China). Finally, while China trades at a single-digit P/E ratio today, Japan is by no means expensive. Goldman Sachs notes that the country's current 12-month forward earnings multiple is just 14.9, about average compared to its 20-year history (Asia-Pac ex-Japan is 12.3x, for perspective). Interestingly, Japan is back up to 6% of the global stock market allocation while China has sunk to just 3%. Perhaps it is indeed the land of the rising sun while China is a classic "sub"-merging market. A solid ETF to play Japan continues to be the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) which hedges exposure to the Japanese Yen. The ETF has a solid track record of outperforming other Japanese country funds.
TVC:HSILong
by mikezaccardi
1
HSI ForecastThe current status is uncertain, and there are two possibilities: 1. If it is the 2nd wave of an upward trend, the HSI (Hang Seng Index) will rebound in the short term and surpass 16500. The level of 16500 will be tested multiple times, which would be the most favorable situation for the HSI. 2. If it is the 5th wave of a downturn, the HSI will break the 15400 level and drop even further, below 14470, previous bottom, and towards 13000. In 2024, I expect the HSI to fluctuate between 15300 and 17100 until the market gains a clearer understanding of China's economic performance. At the beginning of 2024, in the very short term, the trend is likely to decline further. I anticipate that the HSI will test a near-term new low at 15300. However, after the 1st quarter, it could benefit from a lower Federal Reserve interest rate. Nevertheless, the strength of the rebound may not be very strong due to the prevailing uncertainty in the market. We can target the rebound to 16500 or max 17000. Disclaimer Please understand the forecasting will be subjected to many factors and this is the vision at this moment. This comment is not encouraging you to follow or make any investment decision. You will be the only one be responsible for your investment decision and any related behavior. I am not going to bear any legal or non-legal responsibility.
HSI:HSI
by RedCranePunch
1
Another 5-20% more to hit the bottom ......Most have pulled out of HSI or China Market with much unhappiness, disappointment and anger. The Chinese Government has failed to shore up the economy and stock market and big institutional firms have sold or pull out large funds away from China. Another 300 points down today , red and more red like the blood flowing out of a body, slowly but surely. So many retail investors have lost money and those who leveraged had it worse, cursing the hell at every opportunity. A visit to many chinese social media would receive tons of negative news about the stock market, property, loss of confidence ,etc. My overall portfolio would be in double digit growth had it not been pulled down by some of my China holdings. While lately, there are some corporate buybacks but the outflow seems much more than the inflows..... Nobody knows what's on the sleeves of the CCP and how they intend to salvage this situation or not at all. Some speculate like the Japanese market falling into the doldrums for 30 decades, China may face the same fate as well , maybe shorter. The signs are there - collapsing property market, deflationary enviroment, weak stock market,etc. Let's pray for a miracle
TVC:HSI
by dchua1969
3
HK33 to find sellers at previous support?HK33HKD - 24h expiry Previous support level of 16014 broken. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 16015 level. We look to Sell at 16015 (stop at 16195) Our profit targets will be 15565 and 15485 Resistance: 16150 / 16380 / 16810 Support: 15220 / 14790 / 14560 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:HK33HKDShort
by OANDA
5 Reasons Why China Stocks Are Falling -Thin Trading Volumes -Uncertain of the timing in rate cuts -Japan stocks are on poor performance -China's Index has fallen by -0.9% -Chinese stocks are the worst performers in Asia this year Also take note of the rocket booster strategy on this chart because this strategy can also be used to study the index markets. From the chart above you can see the this index market is in a down trend. To learn more rocket boost this content. -- **Disclaimer:** The information provided above is for educational and informational purposes only. -- It does not constitute financial advice, and trading always involves -- a risk of substantial losses, regardless of the margin levels -- used. Before engaging in any trading activities, it is crucial to -- conduct thorough research, consider your financial situation, -- and, if necessary, consult with a qualified financial advisor. Past -- performance is not indicative of future results, and market -- conditions can change rapidly. Trading decisions should be made -- based on careful analysis and consideration of individual -- circumstances. The user is solely responsible for any decisions made -- and should be aware of the inherent risks associated with trading in -- financial markets.
TVC:HSIShort
by lubosi
The Dragon Awakening: China's Stock Market Set for GrowthThe Chinese stock market has been volatile in recent years, but there are signs that it is on the verge of a major rebound. The government is implementing a number of reforms that are aimed at boosting economic growth and investor confidence. These reforms include tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and measures to support small and medium-sized businesses. As a result of these reforms, there is a growing sense that China's stock market is undervalued. This is reflected in the fact that the MSCI China Index, which tracks the performance of Chinese stocks, is currently trading at a discount to the MSCI World Index, which tracks the performance of stocks in developed markets. Investors who are looking for long-term growth opportunities should consider investing in Chinese stocks. The country has a large and growing economy, and its stock market is poised for a major rebound. Here are some of the reasons why China's stock market is set for growth: The Chinese economy is growing at a rapid pace. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2023, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. The Chinese government is committed to supporting the stock market. The government has implemented a number of reforms that are aimed at improving the environment for investors. These reforms include measures to increase transparency and protect investors from fraud. The Chinese consumer is growing in affluence. The Chinese consumer class is growing rapidly, and this is creating strong demand for goods and services. This is a positive sign for the Chinese economy and its stock market. Investors who are considering investing in Chinese stocks should carefully research their investment options and consult with a financial advisor.
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by SabahEquityResearch
8