IBOV trade ideas
BVSP - Gartley PatternFor our brazilian friends out there in the market.
Bovespa stocks market has just completed a Cypher Pattern on a daily chart. It is also possible to see a double top before it started the movement down.
This might give us a signal that this market will retrace back into 382 Fib retracement (confluence with X point which is previous resistance level) and maybe further down 618 Fib retracement (confluence with B point which is previous resistance level).
IBOV Should Find support at 55816After an ending diagonal that behaved like expected (sharp reversal after it), Ibov should find support at 55816. The main reason for this claim is that this support area is historically important. RSI should reach the uptrend support, and bounce up (any break of this level (33%) on daily RSI (14,close) should be interpreted as a first sign that the uptrend is weak). The other important point is that this support (55816) is the level of 38% of retracement for the major rally that was in place after brexit referendum.
The reason i think we should be cautious on trade this situation, is the FED possible rate hike, with next important meeting being at Sep 21. As IBov traders may know, american markets are a main driver of Ibov so i would wait to see what will happen after the meeting to take a more consistence decision. My bias, therefore, is Neutral to Long.
IBOV - IBOVESPA rompe LTB após 6 anos!Agora é o momento? Ainda não temos uma confirmação precisa de reversão de tendência, mas que é um belo furo na LTB, isso é! Como podem ver no gráfico, passamos por tempos nebulosos desde 2010 onde tivemos uma drástica queda nos preços das commodities e graças a um governo muito competente (PT), "e notem a minha ironia enquanto escrevo", tivemos redução e congelamento de tributos e expansão de credito para o incentivo do consumo. No entanto, como podemos notar sem muito esforço, tudo deu errado. Mas agora em 2016 surge uma nova esperança, após um longo e traumático processo de impeachment, chegamos a reta final da queda da quem gosta de ser chamada de "presidenta" Dima Rousseff. Enfim, surge uma bela oportunidade para os próximos anos, como eu disse no começo, ainda é cedo para termos uma confirmação concreta, mas para tantos como eu que já estão roendo o osso há muito tempo, um pouco de esperança já é muita coisa. Abraço do Jake!
Cyclic behaviour inside congestion zoneA cyclic behaivour in the IBOV index is very apparent at the moment. The period is around 4 days (2 days between each peak/bottom).
Also there is a interesting triangle (growing over time) that the index also seems to be respecting.
I am just starting to make some analysis here on TradingView.
Comments on my thoughts would be very appreciated. =)
Correction on IBOVI've been wating for this correction for while, ibov has been overbought for at least 8 days. In those same last 8 days, following a trend of USA markets, ibov got caught in a range of 2%, which made trade on it very hard. But i think we are about to see a correction that will create a great opportunity to go long again. Targets are shown by the white lines (hope the price find support at orange 22 EMA), and "idea" stop is the red line. Don't want to trade this idea, but rather wait to it happen and then go long for a less risky trade.
Elliott Wave Count for Brazil's IBOVO IBOV parece estar no final de uma onda C Menor, dentro de uma (4) Intermediária, que faz parte de uma onda (I) Primária.
O início da onda (5) está iminente e deve levar o IBOV até 55K. A partir dalí, devemos ficar atentos ao final da onda (5) e (I).
Essa contagem leva em consideração o humor social bastante negativo que dominou a percepção de investidores e não-investidores sobre o Brasil, especialmente no segundo semestre de 2015.
O Fundo de Janeiro de 2016 seria então o final de uma correção(baixista) de uma onda de grau Cíclico(altista). Esta correção teve seu início em Abril/2008!
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Brazilian Stock Index IBOV looks as though it is at the end of a Minor C Wave, which is part of an Intermediary (4)th wave inside a Primary Wave (I).
The start of Wave (5) is imminent and should carry the IBOV back to 55k. From then, we should look out for the completion of Waves (5) and (I).
This count takes into account the negative mood that took over investors and non-investors perception on Brazil alike, specially in the last semester of 2015.
The January 2016 Bottom would then be the end of a (bearish)correction of a long (bullish)Cyclic degree wave. This correction started back in April 2008!