Putin, Geopolitics and the RTSRTS was getting hammered at -13% when I made this. Definitely going to be interesting to track. More blood to come, no pun intended.
RTSI trade ideas
Big Russian long is comingRussian equities look really good at the end of 2020 & 2021-2025! We take into account declining dxy and rising em currencies, sector rotation and increasing demand for commodities in china, with a favorable pace of capex L-shaped recovery in the energy sector... we also expect reduction of political risks in Russia more, than in other em... the recovery of the Russian economy after the 2008 crisis was frozen in 2014 due to the "sanctions wars"... - in the context of the end of the pandemic and the change in the socio-political paradigm.., we expect the growth of Russian economy (next 8 years) and the growth of equities (next 5 years)...
Keep it as simple as possible...2 Clear Action Points....the area between these points seem to be neutral
RTSRTS Russian index last time show good result. Good result, it does not drop. because RTS drop of 2011
RTS. Russia is going to benefit from bottomed oil price.Looks like multi-year downside correction is over.
Target for wave C = 1259-1437 (1.272-1.618 of wave A).
buy Russia stocks ! bull flag + H&S weekly !!!so.....
the chart speaks for itself.
if England stays in europe (it will) a lot of stress will get out of EUR and GBP and other Currencies.
the Dollar will have a reason to go down (based on rates expectation to the lower). Dollar Index itself just build a massive monthly H&S.
Oil is Anti-Dollar.
Rubbal is Anti-Dollar.
gogogogo
russia
I will buy upon setup Rusl = russia stocks * 3 long.
RTSCorrection of the instrument is over. new lows will be ahead - not just for Russia, but for Crude and all indices
Another unsustainable rally based on commoditiesFollowing the recent oil rally, the Russian equity index has also rallied about 30%. However, this - like the oil rally and the Petrobras rally I posted about - is unsustainable.
See my post attached here for why the oil rally is unsustainable.
Why is RTS unsustainable?
Firstly, it is likely to follow oil's possible move down.
Secondly, Russia is still in quite a severe recession.
Thirdly, Russia's economy is forecast to contract 1.5% this year.
As long as the outlook for oil looks poor (as it does in my opinion), then the Russian equity index shouldn't be making rallies of 30%.
Technicals
The market has hit a strong level of resistance, as indicated by the upper horizontal black line.
Shorting RTS if it breaks below 1041.57If RTS breaks the wedge(blue), it is likely to continue downwards. Stop loss is above the wedge's upper line. Pattern is invalidated if it climbs higher without breaking the wedge on the downside.
RTS, live on Oil, die with OilWhen i make my living in chemistry laboratory, one day i will die in the lab
Sound logical :-)
Russian RTS Index - Support/ResistanceIs the 1220 level going to be strong resistance for the Index?
RTS Index - short to 900 points. Stop-loss: 1547 pointsRTS index can take 900 point next 3-5 months, if can't take 1540-1550 points.
It's only my idea. Markets are unpredictable, anything is possible. It is necessary to control the risks.
