S1TH trade ideas
A RELATIVELY SOUND INDICATOR WHEN TO BE IN AND OUT OF THE MARKETThe idea is very simple: majority stocks in a 100 basket should trade above their 200 day average price to carry a strong trend. As a conservative investor if 65% of them dips below their 200MA you should be sidelined, until the majority gains strength again. If you are looking to take moderate risk you can use the 50 line, additionally you may switch to weekly timeframe to catch moves sooner, minding the risks that those can be fake moves and reverted before the end of the month with more likelihood than the monthly. For aggressive entries/exits one may use the 25 line. For entries out of the three supplementary indicators at least two of them should be in the positive in addition to the above.
WEEKLY UPDATE : 12/14/2014The sell off in oil continues to drag the market down . The S1TH is at 68 % , but 2/3 supportive indicators are negative. As per the rules of this system, long positions should be closed.
Chances are will see oil at or below $50 this week. I t will be very interesting how investors react to this. Also keep an eye on treasuries and the mighty USD.
Have a great trading week.
Cheers
Algo
WEEKLY UPDATE : 11/24/2014...Good To Go! The S1TH seats at 80.19 % and 2 out of the three supportive indicators are positive. This means conservative investors may once again open new positions.
Cheers
Algo
WEEKLY UPDATE : 11/16/2014The S1TH increased to 77.22 % this week. However , only one out of three indicators is positive, so this system is still out of the market.
Cheers
Algo
WEEKLY UPDATE : 11/8/2014The S1TH is now at 74.25 % , however all three supportive indicators are still negative. As per the rules , at least 2 out 3 supportive indicators need to be positive before opening new positions, this system is still out of the market.
cheers
Algo
UPDATE : Stay out The S1TH shoot back above 65 % this week. However , all three supportive indicators are still negative. Despite the rally , no new position should be open , as per the rules for this system.
cheers
Algo
UPDATE : Bears Are Getting Louder.....SELLLast week the S1TH was still above 65 % line last week, however due to high volatility , and negative reading from two supportive indicators, i advised that this market wasn't "tradeable" ( not a word) or new position shouldn't be opened.
fast forward to yesterday, the S1TH is well below 65 % ( 51.48),volatility so far for the month is 22.5 %. at this point , if you are conservative investor and not a fan of roller coasters, you should be out of this market until further notice.
Cheers
Algo
UPDATE : 10/4/2012 , MARKET NOT TRADEABLEthe S1TH dipped below the 65 % line on Wednesday ,before closing above it again at 69.30% . However , two of the supportive indicators are negative. Also the volatility is EXTREMELY high, 19.5 % so far.
When I first published this strategy three years back, I described it as a strategy for conservative investors. so due to the high volatility in the market and confirmation of the supportive indicators, this market is no longer "tradeable" ( for now).
Cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE : 9/21/2014Alibaba is trading, now we can get focus on something else. the S1TH jumped to 86 % from 73 %. All three supportive indicators are positive, so this market remains "tradeable".
The the AK TREND ID indicator for the SPY, remains in the green zone ( see comment section).
Cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE : 9/14/2014The week has been pretty volatile. SPX closed below 2000, and the VIX jumped to 14.27 before closing at 13.31. The S1TH lost 11 pts, going from 84 % to 73 %. Two out of three supportive indicators remains positive, so this market remains "tradeable"
Interesting week ahead, things i will keep my eye on :
- Scottish independence & GBP
- Alibaba IPO & YHOO
- Initial claims
Cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE : 8/24/2014the S1TH is up to 84.15 % , two weeks ago we were at 63 %. 2 of 3 supportive indicators are positive, so this market remains "tradeable".
cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE :8/9/2014The S1TH is at 73 % , up from 69.30. 2 of 3 supportive indicators are still positive.
Market is "tradeable"
cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE :8/2/2014The S1TH saw its sharpest drop since March of this year, and currently sitting at 69.30 ( down from 83.16). The exit point for conservative investors is 65, but we are not there yet. Out of the three supportive indicators, only two remains in positive territory.
Very interesting times , is this the beginning of the end of one of the most profitable bull market run ? will we see a sharp jump just like in April ? I don't know. But with the information currently in front of me , this market is still "tradeable". Trade what's in front of you. Enjoy the rest of your weekend :)
cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE : 7/26/2014The S1TH index declined more then 10 % this week , going from 93 % to 83.16%. We got strong earning reports from AAPL, FB, but got mix results from MSFT and CAT. The S1TH remains above the 65 % , at 83 % , and only 2 of 3 supportive indicators are positive (RSI is below 50 ) , so this market is still "tradealble"
cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE : 7/20/2014Despite the volatility and tragic events in Ukraine the S1TH gain 3 pts from last week, 93 % of SP 100 stocks are still trading above their 200 ma, and all supporting indicators remain bullish. Market is still "tradeable"
Economic numbers this week
- CPI
- Existing Home Sales
- New Home Sales
- Initial claims
Popular Earnings report this week
- NFLX
- CMG
- HAL
- AAPL
- MSFT
- MCD
- FB
- F
- AMZN
- SBUX
- V
-CAT
Have a great week .
Cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE (7/12/2014)This week was pretty volatile, but the S1TH is slightly down from last week. 90.09 % of S&P 100 stock are still above their 200 MA, the three supportive indicators are still positive, so this market is still "Tradeable".
Also , the AK TREND ID indicator ( see link) is still positive.
Cheers
Algo
WEEKED UPDATE (6/29/14) : Best Market Indicatorthe ST1H is at 84 % and all supportive indicators are positive. This market is still "tradeable" .
Cheers
Algo
WEEKEND UPDATE : Best Market Indicatorthe S1TH INDEX is well above 65 % at 86 %, and all supportive indicators are positive. This market is still "tradeable".
Cheers
Algo
Best Market Indicator Ever : UpdateIt's been more than two years since I first published John Carlucci 's "Best Market Indicator" research here. Almost 10,000 views on the original chart, WOW ! .
I'm republishing this again with some minor updates. On the first publication, we looked for signal on a monthly basis, this time around we'll be using the weekly chart to determine market conditions. The rules are still the same :
Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
And two of the following three also occur:
b) Weekly RSI rises over 50
c) Weekly MACD grey line rises above red line
d) Weekly STO grey line rises above red line
*If indicator falls below 65 % , do not open new positions or close open positions.
*If indicator falls below 50 % , close all positions.
*You don't have to follow the last two rules.
Based on the current reading , the market is still "tradeable"
I have been using this since I discovered the research over two years ago, and has helped me a lot with my long term trading . I hope it will help you also.
Cheers and have a great weekend
Algo
S&P 100 stocks above 200MA (bearish bias)Index finished the week with a SHOOTING STAR below the 20 and 50 MA, this is not good news for the bulls.Currently the INDEX is supported by the 10ma. Break below the 10ma would signal further downside and an official short signal.
