INRUSD trade ideas
USDINR@22nd May 2016- “Bang on…Impatient About Acche DinUSDINR@22nd May 2016- “Bang on…Impatient About Acche Din”
Getting impatient for “Acche Din” –I guess this is the case with every Indian since we voted BJP to power in 2014 since expectations were high & everyone was desperate to see better results.
But let us not forget Mr.Modi talked about 60 Months & it is just 24 months old under his leadership. The devastated state of the country’s economy was to be restored to normal first & Mr.Modi is doing his share of work. So, have faith in him.
Report on 6th April 2016
Unless USDINR closes below 65.95 & breaches rising trendline- do not assume that rupee will appreciate further beyond 66 & it is better to buy dollars. Technically, It was suggested that we shall have one more leg on upside in the form of Z-Wave.
Bang on…The journey has started, USDINR has closed & made a high as well above the ruin point 67.50 on 19th May 2016, Going forward –we have greater possibility that USDINR can even cross 68.80 & 69.22.
Let us not be scared & face that with courage – we might even have spikes above 70 odd levels which will create panic in market.
Looking at the structure, that is the euphoria which dollar bulls shall create in market very close to highs of 69.22 but it will be foolish to buy dollars in panic state as that is the time –when markets will change their hands & table could turn upside down for bulls – making bears stronger in that state.
Any day, when we have panic buying in dollars very close to previous high & making new high i.e. above 69.22 & not sustaining that high means- spike in candle with long shadows(kindly visit google for long shadows in candlestick images)- shall be the first clue that bulls be careful – dollar could start its downward journey.
Regards,
Abhishek H.Singh, CMT
Is USD/INR Going To Breach 70 Now?This is what we have to say about Mr. Raghuram Rajan's decision to leave Reserve Bank Of India ( RBI ) after the end of his current term in September.
This is what happens when you state the obvious to politicians. He is the only central bank chief with chutzpah to tell governing politicians that central bank can't cure it all with just cutting rates ! At some point they need to pick up the baton to reform and enact policies to progress. So he didn't has much choice. Either keep on cutting rates or do whatever pleases to the boss or show them the finger and leave. Besides his rising international acceptance and appeal wasn't going smoothly with someone who likes to grab all the attention whenever India is mentioned in international media. Guess who? ;)
We are not sure how markets will open on Monday because conventional wisdom says it will go down, but we have our doubts. Because in short term market may think that now he is going to be replaced with someone who will definitely start cutting rates and let the banks roam freely and that may cause markets to rally.
And of course USDINR is going to breach 70 mark in no time !
We have been bearish rupee for long time and there are obvious reasons for that. Here is what we said last year about rupee. bombaybulls.com
In a nutshell, nothing happens with empty promises of reform and someone who knows the country well, should be aware of the fact that it is not going to change in our lifetime at least !
A potential bullish garley pattern on the USD/INR2 .618 retracements signalling a potential gartley pattern on to the 65.500 range.
usdinr up trend unsustainable on monthly chart.price keeps humping against the trendlne. there is also an evening star formation. the tl looks about to pop.
USD/INR - Possible Cypher, Keep an eye on 38.2% & 61.8% Fib CDPossible cypher formation on USD/INR pair.
CD leg in the making, but needs to climb and see a daily close above the trendline resistance and previous support (broken previously) around 66.7812
The initial targets for an expected bullish move remain at the 38.2% and then the 61.8% fib level for the CD leg.
The current daily candle is signalling indecision. Fundamentally, the press speculation on the Indian Governor Raghuram Rajan, and the GST (single tax) debate are the key points to take into consideration.
Globally, 'brexit' and a falling dollar are the key risks for the Indian currency.
The bullish argument fails if we see a break and close below the uptrend line around 66.45-47 zone.
Short USDINRFed hike possibility in June is remote now, INR likely to get stronger against dollar. Short for a target of 66.20
USDINR eyeing 67.50Nice rebound from a larger rising trend line..with daily RSI at 60.00 pointing upwards.
Long as long as support at 66.7+ is intact for target of 67.50 with stops below 66.50
USDINR LONG USDINR showing consolidation and potential breakout as it experiences strong support at 2 year support trendline. RR ratio 2.31. If prv high is broken 71 is possible.
USDINR: Promising downtrendUSDINR is right against the downtrend mode offering a very low risk opportunity to go short if we get a new daily low.
The first entry, has a tighter stop, so risk half on this one, and half on the larger 3 atr stop entry.
There are two possible targets, one at 65.44 and the other longer term target at 64.2882.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#USDINR: Bear Conviction Apparent, Lows To Be Seen! #ForexTraders,
A nice trade here at a key action level. We have a nice bearish engulfing signal at the historical support resistance zone, and strong Fibonacci ratio confluence, reinforcing we have hit a resistance ceiling we can short off of.
----Interested in joining my professional signals group, or receiving my professional online trading tuition? Message me here on Trading view or email me with the email address on my Trading view profile page----
Best regards,
Tom
DX (Dollar Index) – Can it spill out the beans for India NiftyDX (Dollar Index) – Can it spill out the beans for India Nifty.
(This technical story connects you to GBPUSD-cable, USDINR & India Nifty).
Since 2011 March, DX has travelled in an impulsive manner till March 2015 & since March 2015—it has been travelling into consolidation mode & appears to be shaping out a triangle pattern who’s C-leg is done.
So, any movement above 95.50- could show us the way that D-leg has started & shall travel atleast 98—98.50 where it shall complete 61.8% of the B-leg.
Now, if you flip this triangle –you will realise that we have similar pattern in GBPUSD (Cable) –both are shaping out triangles where GBPUSD is about start d-leg in downside direction which will be confirmed once pair moves below 1.42979
DX & USDINR Connection-
As DX is shaping out a triangle & getting support of rising trendline & about to start d-leg of the triangle atleast for targets 98—98.50 …similarly USDINR is taking support of rising trendline & we could see another upside leg if 65.95 is intact on closing basis & should not fall below rising channel in that case we can look out for 68-68.50’s zone as target.
DX & India Nifty Connection- Why One should be cautious at current levels:
India Nifty has travelled quiet impulsively since 6825 to 7980- technically 7980 has been the resistance in early Jan 2016 & Nifty broke 1000 points—same resistance was seen in Dec 2015 as well & what a coincidence –we touched 7980 just recently in 18—22nd April 2016 week as well- giving us triple top formation which suggest that we should avoid taking long positions & should wait for clear signals. Clear bullish direction will arise when Nifty closes above 7980 & most important mark 8000 (7515 is key support level)
It looks like we are done with 5 waves upside since 6825 but yes we still don’t have any confirmation of going shorts and In coming days we should be careful & keep a watch on Dollar Index- which is looking bullish
Now, If Dollar Index starts moving above 95.50---probably it can cause pain to Indian equities & spill out the beans for the same.
Regards,
Abhishek H.Singh,CMT
USDIND - Bullish path for DOLLAR/RUPEE.Suggested price action at crucial level.
Happy trading!
______________________
START MAKING MONEY with INSIDEMARKET TRADE SIGNALS .
Mail me to InsideMarketFX@gmail.com or at Skype @insidemarket168
Trade record & statistics: miud.in
USD/INR bounces above 7DMA but finds resistance at 21DMATechnical glimpse:
The breakdown in USD/INR continues with a renewed trending bias.
The break out above of the resistance 66.68 zone (Jan breakout/21DMA) highlights the importance of the upward targets.
Otherwise, December lows with violations confirming a deeper corrective phase upto 65.96 levels.
Upswings are healthy so far confirmed by both leading and lagging oscillators, (see daily charts for RSI, stochastic's positive convergence with price spikes and MACD's attempts of bullish crossover).
The pair has edged up higher upto 66.71 in early Asian session but failed to sustain at higher levels, currently hovering exactly at resistance 66.68.
These daily upswings raises caution for aggressive bears in monthly terms, thus it would be wiser to wait for confirmation from EMAs if it shows bearish crossover.
If RSI curve drags above, then it is a sign making higher highs even though month has just begun as it has tested supports at 66.9257 levels. You can probably observe the historic levels that resembles the same pattern and moved way above.
Option Trade Tips:
In FX option market for USDINR regulated by NSE, please be noted that the highest open interest is observed in OTM strikes calls (i.e. 67 levels) on NSE (National Stock Exchange).
Hence, we advise for trading purpose, avoid options with lower volumes and lower open interest.
USD/INR vol-adjusted carry has jumped back to pre-tapering levels.
So, dubious bulls on hedging grounds, earn carry through 1M USD put spreads.
Enter USD/INR put spreads that offer pre-taper tantrum levels of vol-adjusted carry.
USDINR Analysis this pair by requestDear friend's
i don't trade this pair. and this is just my opinion and nothing else and this one is by TV users request. hope this analysis helpful for people who have trade this pair.
indian ruppie has been break the bullish movement. it seems ruppie pullback on the trend that break.then move to first support line that i draw.
kind regards,
psalehi
Indian rupee on gaining streak - FX derivatives trade ideasThe breakdown in USD/INR continues with a renewed trending bias.
The break of the 67/66.55 support zone (Jan breakout/July TL) highlights the importance of the 65.85 Dec low with violations confirming a deeper corrective phase.
USD/INR: The pair has edged up higher at 66.86 in early Asian session but failed to sustain at higher levels and ended with a bearish candle with current levels of 66.575. Slide below 66.6 has indicated that pullback is over and prices are likely to resume their primary downtrend.
Option Trade Tips:
USD/INR vol-adjusted carry has jumped back to pre-tapering levels.
Earn carry through 2M USD put spreads.
enter USD/INR put spreads that offer pre-taper tantrum levels of vol-adjusted carry.
EUR/INR: EUR edging lower to levels of 74.578 which is below 7 & 21DMA that indicating breach of downwards sloping support line and 21DMA. Daily RSI after testing resistance levels of 50 has slipped to 48 levels. Prices are likely to breach the support line and retest recent bottom of 73.72. So it is better go short in mid month futures.
GBP/INR: This pair violated the short-term uptrend line and ended well below the same. Visible downside gap is showing the strength of the bears in the pair. Thus, it is most likely that prices will break the recent bottom of 94.087 and test the lower levels of 94. So we like to maintain the same strategy using futures contracts as we did it in EURINR case, it is better go short in mid month futures ahead of Brexit scenario (UK referendum scheduled in June).
