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INDIAN RUPEE / U.S. DOLLAR

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USDINR- Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog Disclaimer: The The pair displayed its characteristic move once again. It holds on to a smaller range for longer time and suddenly slips or triggers higher. The break of 82.45 triggered a technical sell-off which saw further momentum taking the pair to the next major support at 81.10. The momentum is likely to continue and any pull back towards the trend line resistance at 81.70 and 82.20 is likely to see selling pressure. Break below 81.10 can trigger further stops being hit to see the pair drift towards 80.50. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 80.50 and 81.80. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: Steep trend line broken We may not see a runaway in DXY. There can be relief rallies. The Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 102-105 Any spike in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10 The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
2
USDINR | Trendline Support• Let see the trendline support will make the trend continue upside or reversal downside. • If any "Daily candle" going to break "high of previous Daily candle", we can try for reversal as from trendline support with good Risk-Reward as chart showing that history had repeated many times. • Entry:- 81.917 break. (Entry should be on previous candle high break . It is possible that , it may be upcoming candle's high.) • Upside Resistances can become our targets. Targets :- 82.721 , 83.039 , 83.200 Stop Loss / SL :- 81.605 Support zone . (After breaking previous candle high , our Stoploss will be low of that candle./ whose high going to break by price. )
Long
by Pravins333
USDINR- Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair finally broke the narrow range of 81.55-82.92 during last week. As expected possibilities of decent supply or lack of aggressive buying has resulted in the prices easing toward 82.30 which is another crucial level being the trend line support. Only a daily close below 82.30 would suggest further correction towards 81.90. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 82.10. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.90 and 83.70. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: narrow range broken We may not see a runaway in DXY. There can be relief rallies. Though the DXY attempted cross over of 105+, it got hammered Any spike in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10 The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR- Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe pair moved in a range of 81.55-82.92 during last week. The top at 82.96 remains same for the past 2 weeks there by making this a Tweezer top. There are chances that there could be stronger supply coming in at close to 82.95 and that the fresh flows could make the pair drift towards 82.44 and then to 82.10 support. Only a daily close below this would suggest further correction towards 81.90. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 82.10. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 82.20 and 83.20. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The pair has a characteristic of moving in a very narrow range and suddenly moves taking everyone by surprise We may not see a runaway in DXY. There can be relief rallies. Full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair. Hence, the spikes in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10 The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Views The pair moved in a range of 81.57-82.96 during last week. The pair continues to move towards the crucial resistance at 83.10-83.30 zone. Though the pair has maintained a higher lows the top at 83.96 remains same for the past 2 weeks there by making this a Tweezer top. There are chances that there could be stronger supply coming in at close to 82.95 and that the month end flows could make the pair drift towards 83.44 support. Only a daily close below this would suggest further correction towards 81.90. Till then we may see one more week of narrow range of 83.10-82.40. While the monthly candle is still in progress, it appears that the pair may make one more attempt of the trend line resistance at 83.30. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 81.20. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 82.20 and 83.20. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82 We may not see a runaway in DXY. There can be relief rallies. Full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair. Hence, the spikes in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10 The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Seasons Greetings and Best wishes for a Happy New Year 2023 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
1
USDINR-Currency ViewThe pair moved in a range of 81.20-82.76 during last week. Break above 81.80 which held for three weeks triggered sudden spike to next resistance at 82.75. While the monthly candle is still in progress, it appears that the pair may make one more attempt of the trend line resistance at 83.30. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 81.20. We can expect supply around the closer resistance at 81.80. We are witnessing demand driven by lower crude and outstanding unhedged exposure getting covered. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.20 and 83.20. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82 We may not see a runaway in DXY. The 105-106 range is yet another crucial price point and we may see further fall to 102. The full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-82.70 The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
3
Indian Rupee bears need validation from 82.65- USD/INR picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from monthly high. - Seven-week-old descending trend line, bearish MACD signals tease sellers. - Sustained trading beyond 200-SMA keeps buyers hopeful of witnessing fresh record top. USD/INR remains firmer around a one-month high as it jostles with a short-term key resistance line near 82.65 during early Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) pair rose to the highest levels in a month the previous day before reversing from 82.77. In doing so, the USD/INR pair retreated from a downward-sloping resistance line from October 19 following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) interest rate hike. It’s worth noting that the failure to cross the aforementioned resistance line joins the recently bearish MACD signals to tease USD/INR sellers. However, successful trading beyond the 200-SMA level, around 81.80 by the press time, keeps the pair buyers hopeful. As a result, the quote is likely to remain firmer but the further upside needs validation from the previously mentioned resistance line near 82.65. Following that, a run-up towards the all-time high marked in October around 83.45 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 200-SMA could welcome the USD/INR bears. That said, the late November swing high around the 82.00 round figure also restricts short-term declines of the pair.
by RDaru
USDINR-Currency View The pair moved in a range of 81.00-81.83 during last week. However, the Monthly candle confirms the trend reversal. We can safely assume that the top at 83.10-83.30 is expected to hold for the current month and possibly till the year end. The closer resistance at 81.80 itself is likely to see good amount of supply. We are witnessing demand driven by lower crude and outstanding unhedged exposure getting covered. The ultimate projection for the down move is 79.20 which might take a couple of weeks. The indications are that the currency is expected to consolidate between 80.70 & 82.70. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: In the previous blogs the comparative analysis of 2018 & current scenario was discussed and suggested a possible correction in Nov 22 which is in progress. We saw nearly a 4 big figure correction in 2018. If the same were to repeat, we may see 79.20 soon. The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82 We may not see a runaway in DXY. The 105-106 range is yet another crucial price point and we may see further fall to 102. The full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair Slow paced correction is a cause of concern as we have seen sudden sharp moves after a long periods of still/stale moves The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-82.70 The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
2
Currency Views-USDINRAfter a sharp recovery in the previous week the pair was traded in a narrow range of 81.44-81.93 during last week. However, the Monthly candle confirms the trend reversal. We can safely assume that the top at 83.10-83.30 is expected to hold for the current month and possibly till the year end. We are witnessing demand driven by unhedged exposure getting covered. The ultimate projection for the down move is 79.20 which might take a couple of weeks. Due to various factors the currency is expected to consolidate between 80.70 & 82.70. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: • In the previous blogs the comparative analysis of 2018 & current scenario was discussed and suggested a possible correction in Nov 22 which is in progress. We saw nearly a 4 big figure correction in 2018. If the same were to repeat, we may see 79.20 soon. • The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82 • The DXY breaking the strong 106 is a sign of top in place for USD index. We may not see a runaway in DXY. the 105-106 range is yet another crucial price point and breach would see further fall to 102. • The full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair, the fall in DXY might have given a sigh of relief for many Central Banks • We do not see an immediate threat of crossing 83 • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-82.70 • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue
by SYFXTF
USDINR Bullish Trend - Target 80-81 by Aug 2022USDINR has been in bullish upwards trend channel for last 4-5 years and has been consolidating sideways since Mar 2020. If it manages to close above 76 in next 2-3 months, it will be big breakout and soon we can expect it to reach 80-81 by Aug 2022 or earlier. Globally all countries are printing money and weakening the currencies and with all uncertainty around COVID and global economy, Dollar seems to be a better hedge. Most currencies will lose value against US Dollar and USD will lose against Gold.
Long
by gmaster29
3