Is crypto dead? NO! IP might save the day!Price Action Analysis
NYSE:IP recently declined to the $3.67 level, effectively sweeping external liquidity by triggering stop-loss orders below key support. This move was followed by a strong recovery, with price fully absorbing the bearish momentum and closing within the global trading range. This price action resulted in a Market Structure Shift (Change of Character, or ChoCH), indicating a potential reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. The ChoCH suggests institutional buying interest, as the market rejected further downside and reestablished bullish structure.
However, caution is warranted. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), a key market driver, may experience a corrective move lower, potentially influencing NYSE:IP ’s price action. As such, immediate entries are premature without further confirmation of bullish momentum.
Key Levels and Trade Setup
Break of Structure (BoS) at $4.28
The $4.28 level on the daily timeframe is pivotal, representing a potential Break of Structure (BoS). A decisive close above this level would confirm bullish continuation, signaling the start of a significant upward move. Should this occur, NYSE:IP is likely to target the following resistance zones:
$6.61: Initial target, likely aligning with prior swing highs or liquidity pools.
$6.98: Secondary target, potentially coinciding with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) or institutional sell-side liquidity.
$7.46: Final target, representing a high-probability zone for profit-taking.
Entry Confirmation
To ensure a high-probability trade, the following conditions must be met:
Daily BoS Confirmation: A clean break and close above $4.28 on the daily chart, supported by elevated trading volume.
4-Hour Timeframe Validation: A breakout above $4.28 on the 4-hour (4H) or higher timeframe, ideally accompanied by a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). An FVG forming on the 4H chart post-breakout would serve as an optimal entry zone, minimizing risk by aligning with institutional order flow.
Pullback to FVG: Post-breakout, a retracement to a 4H bullish FVG (e.g., $4.20–$4.25) that holds as support would confirm the setup for a long position.
Trade Execution
Set Alerts: Configure price alerts at $4.28 to monitor for a daily or 4H breakout. Ensure alerts trigger on a candle close above this level to confirm BoS.
Risk Management: Risk no more than 1–2% of trading capital per trade. Position size should be calculated based on a stop-loss placed below the FVG or recent swing low (e.g., $4.00–$4.10), targeting a minimum risk-reward ratio of 5:1.
Exit Strategy: Take partial profits at $6.61 (50–70% of position) and trail stops for the remaining position toward $6.98 and $7.46, monitoring for signs of rejection or bearish structure at these levels.
Bitcoin Correlation
Given CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s influence on altcoin price action, monitor its key levels closely. A potential corrective move in CRYPTOCAP:BTC could lead NYSE:IP to retest lower supports (e.g., $3.85 or $3.67). Set a secondary alert at $3.85 to watch for a bounce in case of a broader market pullback. Conversely, a stabilization or bullish breakout in CRYPTOCAP:BTC would enhance the likelihood of NYSE:IP ’s bullish setup materializing.
Conclusion
NYSE:IP presents a compelling technical setup, with a ChoCH at $3.67 signaling a potential bullish reversal and $4.28 as the critical level for BoS confirmation. Traders should set alerts at $4.28, await a clean 4H or daily breakout with FVG formation, and execute entries with disciplined risk management. Monitoring CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s price action is essential to avoid adverse market-wide corrections. This setup offers a high-probability opportunity for significant upside, provided the outlined conditions are met.
