Worse places to be than long AUD/JPY if risk is rallyingIf we’re about to see investor risk appetite improve markedly, there are worse trades to have on than long AUD/JPY.
It’s had a strong bounce today, helped initially by rising US bonds yields propelling USD/JPY higher before another bumper Australian jobs report reinforced the view the RBA may not need to cut interest rates this year.
The bounce from 96.223 has seen the pair break through the downtrend dating back to the record highs in July. With momentum indicators providing bullish signals, upside looks far easier than downside near-term. With only minor resistance at 97.621 and the 50-day moving average in between, a retest of the important 200-day moving average may be on the cards.
Ideally, it would have been nice to have caught the initial leg higher as Asian trade got underway. You can still go long here with a tight stop below the uptrend it’s been bouncing off since Monday, but a better long setup would be to either wait for a potential pullback towards 96.223, allowing for a stop to be placed below for protection. If no reversal arrives, you could wait to see whether the price can pierce 97.621, providing the opportunity to buy the break with a stop below for protection.
From a fundamental perspective, one risk is the BOJ rate decision on Friday. Even though no move is expected, and that markets are already priced for more modest rate increases over the next 12 months, traders have been super-sensitive to signs of BOJ hawkishness recently. That could spark a reversal but it should not come as a surprise.
Good luck!
DS
