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JAPANESE YEN / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

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JPYAUD trade ideas

AUDJPY Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically. These elements are especially useful for traders following SMC principles, as they provide a deeper understanding of the actions of major market participants.
by Tonksovave
AUD / JPY STILL DO NOT MISS THE CHANCE !!! CONTEXT If you have previously seen my analysis on AUD / JPY I have explained about the potential of bearish momentum on this pair ( if you haven't seen it please see my previous published analysis , will make you much clear to understand this potential oncoming trade opportunity ). This pair as I have explained on my previous analysis has followed head and shoulder pattern and has been heavily bearish as expected . As such it is very simple for a trader to look and trade on opportunity that presents a bearish character on smaller TF and just simply trade with correct parameters. i.e. risk management and time of entries etc. This pair I believe has the characteristics of providing us those opportunity as seen on the chart. TRADE IDEA As seen on the chart when we know the bigger TF and swing structure of the pair is bearish supported by other factors i.e. chart patterns , we are now looking on this pair to see the break of 4hr fractal candle wick and potentially enter on 1hr TF or 15 min TF , most preferably in NY session. chances might arrive on London session but I would personally see it through NY session to take this trade coming week. Pair will be posted as we go through week and see how the pair reacts and what opportunity it gives us. NOTE Do look on my analysis on this pair which I have published earlier this month. ( November 2024 ) ENTRY IDEA What I am looking on smaller TF on coming week for entry .
Short
by rubinGrg
JPY: Is the potential rate hike priced in?Hello traders I have the opportunity to catch the opening bell of the NY, Asian and London/Europe markets. It does come at a cost with interrupted sleep when necessary but the pay off is worth it. I trade EUR/USD in the morning and the JPY crosses in the afternoon with the focus on AUD/JPY. The technical indicators, in my opinion, point to the possibility that a rate HIKE by the BOJ has been priced in against the majors. The Federal Reserve USD rate CUT is also baked into the markets outlook. Fundamentally, the USD still has the upper hand with more Fed speak pointing to "no rush to lower rates" by Fed Powell and San Francisco's Mary Daly earlier today. BOJ's Nakamura also commented today that consumption lacks momentum. Japan also showed an uptick in the most recent unemployment rate. This could of course change in a heart beat if labor markets show a significant slowdown over the next few months or if inflation picks up again if/when Trump enforces all the threats of tariffs. The next rate cut from Australia is factored in for May 2025 but the lower print on GDP was unexpected. And the Chinese economy's performance obviously plays a huge role in the AUD performance. BUT, proceed with caution over the next few weeks until all the central bank rate decisions are out of the way. Surprisingly, the EURO has taken the political turmoil in France in it's stride. It does not appear as if it will precipitate another Greece-like debt crisis, yet. Here is a look at the EUR/JPY Stay nimble. There are a lot of balls up in the air at the moment. Best of luck.
by jvrfxalerts
2
AUD/JPY Analysis: Speculators Eye Potential Downside Amid RetailAUD/JPY presents a compelling case for downside potential as large speculators increasingly position short, according to COT data. This shift in institutional sentiment contrasts with the prevailing retail bullish bias, with many traders still holding long positions, expecting the pair to continue its upward momentum. However, when retail sentiment becomes too optimistic, especially near critical resistance levels, it often signals a reversal opportunity for larger players. With institutions positioning for further downside, AUD/JPY could be primed for a pullback or breakdown as retail traders’ stop-losses become targets for liquidity grabs. Given the contrast between institutional positioning and retail sentiment, AUD/JPY remains vulnerable to downside pressure. Monitoring sentiment extremes and watching for liquidity events around key levels could provide key insights into the next major move for the pair.
Short
by OssianH
AUD/JPY: Is the Downtrend Losing Steam?Monthly Chart Overview On the monthly chart, AUD/JPY is exhibiting significant downside extension, reaching a key rejection zone. This area has historically acted as a strong support or resistance, which could indicate potential for price exhaustion. However, patience is required, as the bearish trend remains intact for now. Weekly Chart Perspective Zooming into the weekly chart, the price appears even more overextended to the downside. The pair is approaching important zones of interest, suggesting the possibility of a retracement. This could present buying opportunities as the price potentially rebalances. However, the bearish momentum remains strong, making it crucial to wait for confirmation since the downward trend could persist. 4-Hour Chart Dynamics On the 4-hour chart, the key lies in observing whether: Price breaks aggressively to the upside, signaling the beginning of a potential retracement, or Price continues its downward movement, confirming the prevailing bearish trend. This timeframe is crucial for fine-tuning your entry and taking a directional stance. Any aggressive bullish momentum or clear bearish continuation will dictate the strategy. Fundamental Insights (COT Report) A notable signal suggesting the potential for a long setup is visible in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report: The JPY positions are showing aggressive additions to long positions, with a simultaneous unwinding of short positions. In contrast, the AUD remains stable, indicating less aggressive positioning on the AUD side of the pair. This shift in sentiment toward the JPY could be an early indication of a potential reversal in AUD/JPY, as the market might be anticipating a weakening of the downtrend or a possible retracement. Trading Approach Bullish Plan: Wait for confirmation of a reversal (e.g., bullish engulfing candles, breaks of recent highs, or strong momentum). Enter on the retracement with targets at resistance levels identified on the weekly chart. The shift in JPY positioning strengthens the case for this setup. Bearish Plan: If the price continues to break lower, consider shorting after a pullback to resistance, in line with the higher timeframe trend. Key Takeaways The combination of price reaching historical rejection zones and the COT report sentiment shift suggests potential for a reversal, but patience is critical for confirmation. Monitor the 4-hour chart for key breakouts or confirmations in price direction. Use defined zones on the monthly and weekly charts for targets and risk management.
by Wiiso
AUDJPY The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for AUDJPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 96.617 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 97.989 Safe Stop Loss - 95.840 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
2