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JAPANESE YEN / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

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JPYAUD trade ideas

AUD/JPY the most oversold since the pandemic plungeYou don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last? AUD/JPY has been among largest casualties, hammered lower by a combination of China pessimism, large declines on Wall Street and narrowing yield differentials between the United States and Japan. I discussed a short setup in AUD/JPY yesterday, but such has the speed of the unwind been it’s nearly reached the target after falling more than 150 points, extending the decline from the recent peak to over eight big figures. While I think there’s more downside to come, it’s rare for such a liquid FX pair to so sharply in one direction for a sustained period. Even during my time on the desk during the height of the GFC, we saw massive countertrend rallies during what ended up being the largest carry trade unwind on record. As such, when the market provides the signal, I’m positioning for a bounce with the help of long-running uptrend support which is located just 40 pips below where AUD/JPY currently trades. Should it hold, or if the market is unwilling to test it in early Asian trade, buying with a tight stop around 100.60 is one setup, allowing traders to target a push back towards horizontal support at 102.64. To put in context just how oversold AUD/JPY is, on RSI (14), you have to go back to the initial panic at the start of the pandemic to find a similar reading. DS
Long
by FOREXcom
Long AUDJPY: A Calculated Move Based on Robust Market AnalysisGoing Long on AUDJPY Going long on the AUDJPY pair means that you expect the Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise in value against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Here are some reasons why you might consider this position: Economic Strength of Australia: If Australia's economy is performing well, this could strengthen the AUD. Factors to consider include GDP growth, employment rates, and commodity exports, as Australia is a significant exporter of resources like iron ore and coal. Interest Rate Differential: The interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) compared to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate can influence this pair. If the RBA's rate is higher, it could attract investors to the AUD for higher returns. Risk Sentiment: The AUD is often seen as a riskier currency, while the JPY is seen as a safe-haven currency. If market sentiment is positive and risk-taking is high, this could lead to an increase in the AUD's value. Japanese Economic Performance: If Japan's economy is underperforming or if there is significant deflation, the JPY could weaken, making it cheaper to buy with the AUD. Trade Relations: Australia and Japan have strong trade relations. If these are improving, it could lead to an increase in the AUD's value. Remember, these are just potential reasons. Actual market conditions can vary, and it's important to do thorough research and consider getting advice from a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Long
by FtradeFXArabic
AUD/JPY looks terrible but beware getting overly bearishAUD/JPY has looked terrible since breaking the uptrend established in April earlier this month, slicing through a series of supports and the important 50-day moving average. Souring sentiment regarding China’s economic outlook has been a major factor behind the unwind, combining with narrowing yield differentials between the United States and Japan, along with weakness in global equities, to hammer AUD/JPY lower. AUD/JPY now finds itself testing horizontal support at 102.64, the last visible level on the charts before a potential retest of major uptrend support dating back to March 2023. That’s currently found at 100.75. Momentum is with the bears, with RSI yet to break its downtrend while MACD continues to signal downside risks. The only thing making me hesitant to short is AUD/JPY is now oversold on RSI (14). And when you look back at other recent episodes when the pair has been this oversold, its often coincided with a near-term market bottom. As such, I’m waiting for the price action to tell me what to do. If support fails, sell a clean break of 1.0264 with a tight stop above the level for protection. The initial target would be the major uptrend around 100.75. Alternatively, should support hold, buy with a tight stop below 1.0264 for protection. 104 is one potential target with 104.95 after that. DS
by FOREXcom
Potential bullish bounce?AUD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is also a pullback resistance. Pivot: 102.64 1st Support: 101.59 1st Resistance: 103.88 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
AUD/JPY Approaches June LowAUD/JPY approaches the June low (102.62) after closing below the 50-Day SMA (101.40) for the first time since March. AUD/JPY Rate Outlook Keep in mind, the selloff in AUD/JPY emerged following the failed attempt to test the 1991 high (109.70), with the decline in the exchange rate pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back from overbought territory. The RSI may show the bearish momentum gathering pace as it slips below 30 for the first time since March 2023, with a breach below the June low (102.62) raising the scope for a move towards 102.40 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Next area of interest comes in around 100.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 100.90 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) but AUD/JPY may attempt to retrace the decline from the start of the week should it defends the June low (102.62). Need a close above the 103.40 (100% Fibonacci extension) to 104.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region to bring the 105.50 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 106.10 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) area back on the radar, with the next hurdle coming in around the 2007 high (107.82). --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
AUDJPY: Bearish Setup on Pullback to Key LevelsTechnical Analysis: Weekly Chart: Last week's bearish continuation candlestick suggests that the bears are still in charge, indicating a potential move towards the weekly horizontal level around 102.97/61. Daily Chart: The previous day's bearish continuation candlestick with a lower low and lower close supports the bearish outlook. 4-Hour Chart: For a short position, I'm looking for a pullback to a key horizontal level around 104.52/68. Sell Limit Entry: 104.52/68 Stop Loss: Above 104.90 Target: 102.97/61 Fundamental Analysis: There’s not much happening with AUD except for the Flash Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, July 24th. The Yen has gained ahead of the BoJ's policy meeting next week. Some BoJ officials are considering raising interest rates at the July meeting, though sluggish consumer spending complicates their decision.
Short
by iamfotx
Trade Signal for AUDJPY: SELLAttention traders, We have identified a promising SELL opportunity for the AUDJPY currency pair. Trade Details: Direction: Sell Enter Price: 105.224 Take Profit: 105.00433333 Stop Loss: 105.60633333 Our EASY Quantum Ai strategy has flagged this trade setup based on several key factors: 1. Technical Analysis: Current chart patterns suggest a downward trend. Indicators such as RSI and MACD signal overbought conditions, suggesting potential sell-off. 2. Economic Indicators: Recent economic data from Australia shows weakened market sentiment, adding downward pressure to the AUD. 3. Market Sentiment: Global risk aversion and geopolitical tensions favor a stronger JPY, making the AUD less attractive in comparison. Please ensure that you place your stop loss and take profit levels as specified to manage risk effectively. Stay alert for further updates as market conditions evolve. Happy Trading! Note: This signal is generated using the EASY Quantum Ai strategy and should be traded within the context of your overall portfolio and risk management guidelines.
Short
by ForexRobotEasy