Is the bear market bounce in the AUDJPY over? 16 Risk Reward!Hello!
Here is my fundamental case to be short AUDJPY
1) Strengthening economy in Japan
- Is Japan finally out of its 30 year lul?
2) Weakening Economy in Australia
- Are interest rates finally starting to effect the economy?
3) Extreme household debt in Australia due to the extreme property hype cycle (People say its because of immigration, I think this is just a narrative... I remember when Hong Kong 'didn't have enough space') Australia hast had its 2008 moment yet,
4) Debt is on govt balance sheet in Japan already... Australia will probably join the govt debt club once they have their property cycle FINITO.
Here is my technical case to be short AUDJPY
1) We have rallied to the 61% Fibonacci of the first impulse down.
2) The 'False breakout' at 102ish gives us a good level to know we are wrong. This helps to provide a RIDICULOUS risk reward of 16:1.
Thanks
Kavi
