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JAPANESE YEN / CANADIAN DOLLAR

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JPYCAD trade ideas

PA #3 : cadjpy sell 10/12/24Post Analysis Objective: +10% profit Current Profit: -3.82% Number of Trades: 0 1. What Did I Do Right? - I focused on the central question: Is there activity, and if yes, where is the job/activity? - I correctly identified that the demand/job was related to CAD, which was bearish. - I selected a bullish asset to pair with CAD, demonstrating strong logic in asset pairing. - I classified assets into bullish/bearish categories and ranked them by importance. For instance, while both JPY and CHF were strong, I accurately determined that JPY was stronger than CHF, which is crucial for pair selection. 2. What Did I Do Wrong? - I did not choose the best pair (USDCAD), despite it being a clear candidate based on the job created after the NFP and the overall bullish nature of USDCAD. - I overlooked the USDCAD setup during my analysis, even though I reviewed the pair. - I missed the opportunity because I did not consider the possibility of market reactions to CAD, as there was no significant news event for CAD on the day. 3. What Am I Going to Improve? - Incorporate a quick scan of pairs to check for jobs/demand created in previous sessions or overnight, even if no news event is scheduled for the pair. - Enhance my focus on spotting high-potential setups like USDCAD by revisiting pairs I’ve analyzed earlier in the session. Notes : The fact that I did not take any trades bothers me significantly. I feel like I should be taking more trades. I can barely bring myself to take a trade, which is an issue. I need to increase the number of trades I take, within reason, ensuring they are based on good setups. To address this, I will consider reducing the rigidity of my confirmation criteria. This change aims to help me take more trades while maintaining the fundamental questions of identifying activity and selecting the right pair. I believe this part is critical to improving my trading. I need to find a way to take trades with less confirmation when I encounter a valid setup.
Long
by elpatrondelamafia
CAD/JPY Short term Trade following up on ascending channelHi friends today we are starting off with a fantastic opportuntiy following up on the positive beat on the CADJPY formulating an ascending channel we will test the lower levels of 107 and then we will see if there is more value to be extracted. Entry : 106.385 Target : 107.100 Stop loss : 106.039 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Long
by DG55Capital
1
Intraday Analysis: CADJPY Forecast and Trade SetupThe overall trend on the major timeframes for CADJPY remains bullish, despite a breakdown continuation observed last week. Current Market Overview: The lower timeframe (M5) printed a bullish wave structure this morning. We anticipate a corrective move below 105.76. In the short term, a potential downside reversal is expected. Trade Setup: Look for shorting opportunities below 106.34, targeting a break below 105.77. If price action breaks below 105.77, we can consider buying opportunities, aligning with the larger bullish trend. Key Levels to Watch: Sell Point : 106.34 Buy below : 105.77
Short
by Charts247TradingAcademy
CADJPY Is Going Up! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for CADJPY. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 106.432. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 107.126 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
CADJPY Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically. These elements are especially useful for traders following SMC principles, as they provide a deeper understanding of the actions of major market participants.
by Tonksovave
CADJPY: Fundamental Analysis - Bearish BiasCADJPY: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY (BEARISH Monthly) LEI INCREASING: CAD is slightly stronger than JPY from LEI Perspective. ENDO MIX DECREASING : JPY has more GREEN ENDO, meaning JPY is becoming Stroger than CAD. EXOs DECREASING: Score is gradually decreasing. GDP of JPY is imporving and Interest hike is anticipated. JPY is slightly more strong from CAD in terms of EXO, but because Global GDP is in RISK-ON stage and CAD has more power as well, hence EXOs are somewhat MIXED. EXO+LEI MIX INCREASING: FINAL SCORE DECREASING: Because of JPY ENDO strength. TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON ENDO/EXO: On Daily, overall CADJPY is giving mixed signals. But on a monthly level it go BEARISH because of ENDO and Final Score is DECREASING. EXO of JPY are improving but EXO of CAD are not too weak due to RISK-ON sutuation. Till CAD interest rate news, CADJPY will be Bearish. NEWS EVENTS Two major news events about INTEREST RATE for CAD and JPY on 11 Dec (CAD) and 19 Dec (JPY). 1. If the INTEREST RATE DIFFERENCE between (CAINTR - JPINTR) would decrease (i.e. Either CAD rate decrease or JPY rate Increase) then CADJPY would become Bearish, matching the seasonal of second half. 2. Similarly if the difference between the Real Interest Rates would decrease, then CADJPY would become Bearish, matching the seasonal of second half. CADJPY: SEASONAL ANALYSIS a. BEARISH: From 02 - 11 DEC (CONFLUENCE with Seasoanl. Depending upon CAD Interest Rate News on 11th, trend can change hence need caution) b. MIX: From 12 - 19 DEC (BULLISH If CAD Interest would not change. BEARISH if CAD interest will fall) c. BEARISH: From 19 - 24 DEC (JPY Interest Rate News is due on Dec 19th and If JPY Interest Rate would increase CADJPY will fall) COT RSI and COT FLIP ANALYSIS NON-COMMERCIALS 1. (Nov 26th 2024) COT RSI for CAD and JPY, is not close to 0 or 100 hence no trade bias. 2. For "Non-Comm LONG" positions: CAD on DECREASING trend. JPY on INCREASING trend. Hence JPY might become stronger in a 1-2 week timeframe. CONFLUENCE with SEASONALS and INTEREST RATE news. 3. For "Net Non-Comm": CAD is on a rise signalling increse in SHORT Positions. JPY is on fall signalling increase in LONG positions. 4. FLIP Data 4 Weeks Avg: CAD is SELL and JPY is BUY. Meaning JPY is becoming stronger in Dec 2024. 5. "Difference (Blue Line)": On DECREASING trend for CADJPY but the bearish trend needs to confirm. MIX/ SUMMARY ON COT ANALYSIS: COT report is hinting that CAD is gradually weakening and JPY is strengthening. Hence BEARISH Bias for CADJPY. QUATITATIVE ANALYSIS: No data is available for CADJPY in presentation. DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: Sideways to Bearish as per DOW. Confluence with Fundamental analysis. DIVERGENCE: Bearish divergence has already played. Volume Div: Has played alredy HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum is possible after bullsh retracement till 109. PATTERN: Head and shoulder pattern will be formed if price will reach shoulder level of 103. FIB: Daily Level 50.0% is tested as resistance. Retracement till 109 is expected for bearish continuation. S&R: Strong resistance at 111.44 and current price is 107.0. Next support is 102.9 and there is a high probability that it will be tested, which is also the Shoulder. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA and retest is expected. SL should be above EMA200. ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement. Scho-RSI: Below 20 and might go up slighty to create LH. DAILY TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS AFTER RETRACEMENT TO 109 (Fib 50%) SELL LIMIT: 108.9, SL: 111.815, TP1: 102.9, RR: 1:2 4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: Strong Bearish DIVERGENCE: Bullish Div present but waiting to be played HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish movement confirmed after retracement and making LH. FIB: Daily Level 23.6 is tested as resistance to make LH S&R: Resistance at 107.7 and current price is 106.69. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is re-opening Scho-RSI: Again turning down 4H TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS Entry: Market 106.66, SL: 108.721, TP1: 103.562, RR:1:2
by haroonraees
Lingrid | CADJPY Trend CONTINUATION Shorting OpportunityFX:CADJPY is currently making lower lows and lower closes, which indicates a bearish trend. The price is retracing toward the resistance zone and the upper boundary of the channel. Given that the major trend remains bearish, this pullback presents an opportunity to short the market. The price action is demonstrating a strong bearish movement, followed by weaker pullbacks, indicating that the bulls are not in control. I anticipate that the market will provide further opportunities for trend continuation in the bearish direction. My goal is support zone around 106.300 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
1
CADJPY1-Seasonality: In Seasonals we can observe the CADJPY pair remains Bearish. 2-Fundamentals(Exogenous Factors): Real GDP, IR Differential, BOP Relative, Stock Relative all are Increasing 3-Fundamentals(Endogenous Factors): for JPY factors are Increasing and CAD endogenous factors are mix to decreasing. 4-Forex Conditional Scoring: Data is mix or mix to decreasing for JPY & Increasing for CAD 5-Global LEI & GDP: is overall increasing Overall as we can say JPY index is in Buy and CAD index in also Buy, so we can expect to continue bearish trend
Short
by mhamzasaeedm
What I am seeing on a weekly chart, CADJPY, may surprise soon. You can see here a weekly chart for CADJPY, It's quite apparent the uptrend, and the price on a weekly has been in a huge rising wedge since March 2020, nearly 5 years ago. This year alone, there have been at least 3 moving averages cross-ups supportive of higher prices to continue, the one that interests me the most is the most recent MACD bullish cross-up on the signal-line. Fibonacci Retracement levels from recent weeks, all line up in price in that golden zone area between 50% and 38.2%. This is all lining up nicely on the weekly chart for long positions again soon on CADJPY. Now here is the Daily chart, the first thing that's apparent is the sell off this week, the chart also leaves a feeling that bearishness is set to continue. I differ and I think bulls will be buying this from the start of next week and price action will start to turn back to the upside at some point during next week. Finally, I want to take a look at a very low timeframe and see what is developing there.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading