Short**Market Outlook and Technical Perspective**
**Key Price Levels:**
- **Resistance Threshold:** 113.030 – A decisive break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, suggesting potential trend reversal.
- **Support Targets:** Immediate downside targets are 106.332 and 104.805, with a critical *Major Support* at 102.800. A close below 102.800 confirms renewed selling momentum.
**Chart Pattern & Trend Dynamics:**
- A **descending flag pattern** is emerging on the chart, typically a bearish continuation signal. This reinforces expectations of a downward leg, targeting the noted support levels.
- Price remains below the **WEMA21** (21-period Weighted Exponential Moving Average), which now serves as dynamic resistance. Any upward retracement could face selling pressure near this moving average.
**Momentum Analysis:**
- **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** At 41, the RSI reflects bearish momentum but is not yet oversold. A sustained downtrend in the RSI (marked by its own unbroken bearish trendline) aligns with the price’s weakness.
- **Recent Price Action:** The peak at 111.550 (20 Nov 2024) established a lower high, signaling fading bullish strength and opening the door for further declines.
**Scenario Analysis:**
1. **Bearish Continuation:** While price holds below 113.030, the path of least resistance favors a drop toward 102.800, especially if sellers breach 106.332.
2. **Bullish Invalidation:** A close above 113.030 or a break of the RSI’s downtrend line could signal short-term bearish exhaustion, warranting caution for downside bets.
**Conclusion:**
The confluence of the descending flag, resistance at WEMA21, and RSI momentum supports a bearish bias. Traders should monitor reactions at 106.332 and 104.805 for downside acceleration, while guarding against a surprise break above 113.030 that would challenge the current thesis.
