JPYCAD trade ideas
CADJPY View!!In the long-running battle between stocks and bonds, the latter is usually right when it comes to the economy. Given that oil and the yen are also flagging trouble, the signs are hard to ignore.
In early August, when US yields fell, it looked like a reaction to a flight-to-safety as some air came out of the AI trade and megacap tech stocks but when those rebounded, yields didn't. Now they've fallen even further and signal a hasty Fed rate cutting cycle. Now Powell may front-load rate cuts in an effort to stick a soft landing but that path is perilous.
CADJPY Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for CADJPY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 107.379.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 106.107 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Ride that Risk-on!Fundamentals & Sentiment
CAD:
Bullish oil inventory data yesterday. Generally ok US data (GDP, Claims, etc) today. Risk-on sentiment continuation from China stimulus.
JPY:
Bearish Internals, CFTC.
Technical & Other
Setup: TC(RTF)
Setup timeframe: 1h
Trigger: 15m
Medium term: Up
Long-term: Down
Min target: 3R
Risk: 0.27%
Risk R: 0.5R
Main risk: buying into DMA(50) at 107.40. If holds above, consider adding.
#CADJPY 1HCADJPY (Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen)
Timeframe: 1-Hour (1H)
Pattern: Rising Wedge
A rising wedge pattern has emerged on the 1-hour chart of CADJPY. This bearish formation typically signals a potential reversal or a slowdown in the prevailing uptrend. The wedge is formed by converging trendlines, with higher highs and higher lows, indicating a weakening upward momentum.
The rising wedge pattern suggests that although the price is still moving higher, buyers are losing strength, and a breakout to the downside could be imminent.
Forecast: Sell
The current forecast favors a sell opportunity, as the rising wedge often leads to a bearish breakout. A breakdown below the lower trendline of the wedge would confirm the reversal and signal a potential decline in price.
Technical Outlook:
Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge, where buyers may find it difficult to push the price higher.
Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, which, once broken, could trigger further downward movement.
Key Levels to Watch: A confirmed break below the wedge’s support level could accelerate selling pressure, leading to lower prices.
Traders should wait for confirmation through signals such as bearish candlestick patterns or volume increases on downward moves before entering short positions.
Keep an eye on market sentiment and relevant news, especially regarding oil prices (affecting CAD) or safe-haven demand for JPY, as these could influence price action in this pair.