CHFJPY Breakout Reversal Setup – Eyes on 175.16!CHFJPY is showing a potential reversal from a well-defined demand zone (highlighted in green). Price has bounced strongly after forming a base around the 173.000 area and is now pushing upward with bullish momentum. If this move holds above minor resistance near 173.600, we could see a rally toward the key horizontal resistance level at 175.164.
🟢 **Bullish Bias**: Rejection from demand zone + bullish structure forming.
🎯 **Target**: 175.164 resistance zone.
📉 **Invalidation**: Break and close below 173.000.
Keep an eye on volume and price action confirmation for entries—momentum looks promising!
JPYCHF trade ideas
CHF/JPY BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
CHF/JPY is making a bullish rebound on the 2H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 174.161 level.
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THIS IS CHF/JPY ANALYSIS As we can see from 1 day time frame market overall is uptrend and it's making a pullback to the downside to clear imbalance near a demand level.we will wait for a change in the character in order to start looking for long opportunity in small time frame for entry by targeting 1 day swing high. Trade safe
CHFJPY | 01.05.2025SELL 174.800 | STOP 176.500 | TAKE 172.700 | Japan released data on 1 May 2025 and left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.05%. This expectedly boosted the rates of related currencies. The Swiss franc will stand out in this position in our opinion. We expect multidirectional price movement in a range above the 174.000 level. Then we are likely to observe a decline in the indicator to the lower boundary of local support.
CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 5 May 2025
- CHFJPY reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 174.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the pivotal resistance level 175.85 (which has been steadily reversing the price from November) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous sharp upward impulse wave (3) from the end of April.
Given the strength of the resistance level 175.85, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 174.00.
CHFJPY Analysis – Bearish Rejection at ResistanceCHFJPY pair is showing signs of exhaustion near a strong resistance zone just under 176.00. With price action printing multiple rejections and forming lower highs, the setup favors a bearish bias heading into mid-Q2 2025. With Japanese yen sentiment strengthening despite market doubts and Swiss inflation data showing stagnation, the technical picture is aligning with macro fundamentals for a potential drop.
📊 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart)
Key Resistance Rejected:
Price failed to sustain above 175.75–176.15 area, a strong historical resistance.
Multiple rejection wicks highlight bearish pressure at this level.
Bearish Structure:
Rising wedge and flag breakdowns have preceded the current move.
The chart shows a projected bearish leg forming, with three potential targets marked by green support zones.
Support Levels to Watch:
172.61 – Minor structure and neckline support.
171.00 – Key horizontal zone; likely the first major test.
168.50–166.50 – Final bearish targets based on previous structure and price consolidation.
Bearish Trade Plan (as indicated):
Entry zone: ~174.80–175.50 (after a confirmed lower high or breakdown).
Stop: Above 176.15 (structure invalidation).
TP1: 172.60
TP2: 171.00
TP3: 168.50
Final TP: 166.50
🌐 Fundamental Drivers
Swiss Inflation (April 2025):
Swiss CPI was flat MoM and YoY (0.0%), reflecting weak price momentum
Core inflation remained modest (+0.1%), reducing pressure on SNB to tighten policy.
JPY Sentiment & Positioning:
COT data shows record net-long JPY positions, suggesting strong speculative interest
Analysts warn of overbought sentiment, but dovish BoJ policy continues to suppress JPY bears for now.
Macro Context:
Risk-off sentiment or yield curve steepening could favor the yen further.
CHF may weaken if Swiss data continues to underwhelm.
✅ Summary
CHFJPY has rejected strong resistance, and both technical and macro indicators suggest a pullback is likely. A break below 172.60 could open the door to deeper declines toward 168.50–166.50 in the coming weeks.
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CHFJPY – Wave 5 Bullish Move AheadCHFJPY is setting up for a Wave 5 upward move according to Elliott Wave analysis.
Now is the time to prepare your buy plan and get ready for the next leg higher.
🔹 Technicals are aligning
🔹 Watch for entry confirmation
🎯 Target: Ride the bullish momentum of Wave 5!
Stay sharp — the opportunity is coming! 📈
#CHFJPY #ForexTrading #Wave5 #ElliottWave #BuySetup #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketForecast #ForexSignal #TradingStrategy
CHFJPY: Pullback From Support 🇨🇭🇯🇵
There is a high chance that CHFJPY will pull back from
the underlined intraday horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I see a bullish imbalance candle
after a release of today's Swiss CPI data.
Goal - 175.37
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CHFJPY Technical AnalysisThis CHF/JPY 1-hour chart represents a bearish setup with a short position already marked, showing a clear entry point, stop loss, and two take-profit levels (Target 1 and Target 2). The trader appears to be capitalizing on a breakdown from a minor consolidation near the 174.9–175.0 zone, which previously acted as support.
Price has decisively broken below that support, and is now trading around 174.63, with rejection wicks confirming selling pressure just beneath the old support turned resistance. The current candle structure suggests a weak recovery attempt, likely a bearish retest of the breakdown zone, forming what resembles a bear flag or descending channel pullback.
The Bollinger Bands are starting to widen after a squeeze, with the price now below both the 20-period moving average and the lower band, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI confirms this bias, currently sitting below the midline (around 38), indicating weakening bullish strength and possible oversold territory—but without divergence, which keeps the short bias intact.
Volume supports this move, as selling volume spiked on the initial breakdown, while the following green candles show diminished buying effort. This divergence between price action and volume is typical of a bearish continuation setup.
The first target sits around the 174.00 level — a round number and previous demand area. The second target is deeper, around 172.88, which likely corresponds to a higher time frame demand or order block. If momentum builds below 174.00, especially with sustained volume, the move toward Target 2 is plausible.
Overall, this trade assumes a continuation of bearish momentum, following a failed bullish attempt, with risk managed just above the broken structure. The setup hinges on the breakdown holding, making the 174.9–175.0 zone critical: any strong reclaim above it invalidates the bearish thesis.
CHFJPY: Potential Bearish Move?CHFJPY at a Key Resistance – Potential Bearish Move?
CHFJPY tested a strong daily resistance zone. This is an area that has been challenged multiple times in the past, often triggering significant bearish moves.
There’s a good chance CHFJPY could start another major decline from this zone.
Key support levels where traders may take profits include 171.40, 168.50, and 166.50.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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CHFJPY – Bearish Reversal Setup (Mid-April)Summary
CHFJPY short is supported by weak macro + divergence + seasonal timing.
CHF is fundamentally the weakest major, while JPY is seasonally strong and technically aligned.
🧠 Fundamental & Seasonal Overview
CHFJPY presents a high-probability short opportunity for the second half of April:
CHF Fundamentals = Weakest among majors
↳ SNB recently cut rates to 0.25%, CPI down to 0.3%, GDP slowing
↳ Exo+LEI Score ≈ -1143 — highly bearish
JPY Fundamentals Improving
↳ BoJ cautiously hawkish (wage growth + inflation rising)
↳ Seasonality favors JPY mid-late April
COT: CHF near top → risk of unwind; JPY also elevated, but justified by fundamentals
📉 Seasonality
CHFJPY is historically bearish from April 15–30
CHF flat to weak, while JPY typically strengthens in risk-off flows and Q2
CHF/JPY BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
CHF/JPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 172.570
Target Level: 175.428
Stop Loss: 170.661
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 8h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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