JPYEUR trade ideas
Technical Analysis: JPY Price Action Near Resistance – Potential📊 Technical Analysis: JPY Price Action Near Resistance – Potential Reversal Ahead? ⚠️
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🔍 Overview:
This chart illustrates the recent price action of a JPY-based asset (likely a JPY forex pair), currently testing a major resistance zone around the 165.286–165.500 area. The market is reacting sharply at this level, suggesting a possible rejection and correction downward. The setup is marked with well-defined support/resistance levels and potential retracement targets.
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🟧 Key Zones:
🛑 Resistance Zone (165.286 – 165.500): Price is currently reacting at this overhead supply zone. This level has historically rejected bullish attempts, as seen in previous price action.
🟩 Support Zone (161.302 – 161.550): This demand zone has served as a strong base previously and is marked as the final potential retracement level (labeled "4") in the chart.
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🔻 Retracement Levels:
Labeled as 1 through 4 in purple lines:
1. Level 1 – 163.948 🟣: Initial minor support; might provide a short-term pause if price pulls back.
2. Level 2 – 162.803 🔄: Mid-level support; watch for consolidation or bounce.
3. Level 3 – 162.091 🧲: Stronger support and possible bounce level.
4. Level 4 – 161.550 🛡️: Key support aligning with historical demand zone. A break below this could signal trend reversal.
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🔄 Price Projection:
The curved arrow indicates a potential correction from the resistance zone down toward the support levels, especially targeting Zone 4. This move reflects a typical market reaction when price meets strong resistance after a steep rally.
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📈 Strategic Implications:
For Bulls 🐂: Wait for confirmation of support at any of the retracement levels (especially 3 or 4) before entering.
For Bears 🐻: This is an optimal area to look for short entries, especially if bearish candlestick patterns confirm rejection from the resistance zone.
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✅ Conclusion:
Price is at a critical decision point near major resistance. A bearish reversal is likely if the resistance holds, with a corrective move toward 161.302–161.550 being the most probable target range. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before committing to positions.
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📌 Tip: Keep an eye on candlestick patterns and volume at the resistance zone to validate the reversal hypothesis.
EURJPY Long opportunity at 164.250EURJPY currently has bullish market directionality and is on a retracement from the 165.000 level toward the break and retest zone at 164.250. on the 4 hour timeframe price is trading above the 50 SMA and is in the Bullish RSI zone above 55 below 70. The 164.250 price points lays in the sweet spot between 45-55 in the RSI which signals the potential end of the retracement and pivot back towards the bullish momentum. Looking to ride this long position back towards the 165.000 resistance level.
eurjpy sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
EURJPY Technical AnalysisEUR/JPY Technical Analysis – Buy vs. Sell Scenarios
Current Market Context (June 8, 2025)
Price: 165.018 (Closing)
Daily Change: +0.12% (Mild bullish momentum)
Key Levels:
Resistance: 165.277 (Daily High), 166.000 (Psychological), 167.000 (Upper Range)
Support: 164.741 (Daily Low), 164.000 (Critical), 162.000 (Strong Demand Zone)
Scenario 1: BUY (Long Trade)
Trigger:
Price holds above 164.741 (Daily Low) and bounces with rising volume.
Break above 165.277 (Daily High) confirms bullish continuation.
Targets:
166.000 (Psychological Resistance)
167.000 (Upper Range)
Stop-Loss: Below 164.000 (Invalidation Level)
Rationale:
Bullish momentum from the daily close (+0.12%).
Higher lows suggest buyer interest near 164.000–164.741.
Scenario 2: SELL (Short Trade)
Trigger:
Price breaks below 164.741 (Daily Low) with increased selling volume.
Rejection from 165.277 (Daily High) signals weakness.
Targets:
164.000 (Support)
162.000 (Strong Demand Zone)
Stop-Loss: Above 165.300 (Above Daily High)
EURJPY Ascending channel and bullish fvg 🚨 EURJPY Trade Setup 🚨
4H Timeframe Analysis by Livia 😜
💹 Pair: EURJPY
📈 Structure: Ascending Channel respected ✅
📊 Breakout: Confirmed above Bullish FVG – retest successful 🔥
📍 Entry Zone: 163.200 (Minor Support Holding)
🚀 Bias: Strong Bullish Momentum in play
🎯 Technical Target:
1️⃣ 165.000 – Next Key Resistance Level
🔒 Risk Managed – Watching PA for continuation or pullback setups.
#EURJPY #ForexSignals #PriceAction #BreakoutTrade #FVG #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #4HChart #LiviaTrades
LONG | EUR/JPY | 1D Macro Context: With ECB neutral and BoJ dovish, EUR/JPY favored to drift upward slowly as Yen weakness persists.
Structure: In a long-term bullish channel and recently bounced off the 50‑day MA near 163.0–163.5 .
Trigger:
Entry: Long on pullback to 163.50–164.00.
Stop: 162.80 (below channel support & LVN).
Target: 166.70 (upper channel range) → 168.00 zone.
R:R: ~1:2.5.
Framework: Entry aligns with liquidity sweep and bounce off HVN/50MA, supported by Elliott/Elliott-wave count and broader bullish range.
EURJPY : Bullish Breakout Indicates a Bigger MovementEURJPY: Bullish Breakout Indicates a Bigger Movement
Yesterday, during the ECB rate decision, EURJPY broke out from a large bullish pattern.
Actually, the price is testing the broken resistance, now turned into support.
The price is already testing 164.20 and probably during the coming week EURJPY may start a bigger bullish movement with targets 164.15 and 165.60
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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EURJPY: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
EURJPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURJPY
Entry Point - 164.60
Stop Loss - 165.15
Take Profit - 163.56
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURJPY Be ready to sell soon.Last time we looked at the EURJPY pair (February 26, see chart below), we gave a clear buy signal that wasted no time hitting straight our 162.250 Target:
With the Lower Highs trend-line now broken, a new pattern has emerged and that's a (blue) Channel Up. The current Bullish Leg is headed straight to the 8-month Resistance Zone, so we will be turning bearish there, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 162.250.
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EURJPY Hit the CeilingPrice just kissed the 164.63 resistance I’ve been tracking and printed a rejection wick. Unless we close decisively above that shelf, I’m treating it as a fresh supply zone. My base case is a drift back toward the mid-range support at 164
Structure: clear descending channel; latest rally only tagged the upper rail
EURJPYEUR/JPY Analysis: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differentials, UIP, and Carry Trade
1. Current Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differentials
Eurozone 10-Year Yield: ~2.50% (Germany’s benchmark yield, down 3bps post-ECB rate cut) .
Japan 10-Year Yield: ~1.45% (recently fell to a 3-week low amid strong bond auctions) .
Yield Spread:
2.50% (EUR)−1.45% (JPY)=+1.05%
The Eurozone’s higher bond yield provides a carry advantage for EUR.
Policy Rate Differential:
ECB Deposit Rate: 2.00% (cut by 25bps on June 5, 2025) .
BoJ Rate: 0.50% (unchanged since March 2025) .
Rate Spread:
2.00% (EUR)−0.50% (JPY)=+1.50%
2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
Theory: The EUR should depreciate against JPY to offset the +1.50% rate spread, eliminating arbitrage opportunities.
Reality: UIP often fails due to risk premiums and market dynamics. Despite the Eurozone’s higher rates, EUR/JPY remains supported by carry trade demand and JPY weakness tied to BoJ policy.
3. Carry Trade Dynamics
Mechanics: Borrow JPY (0.5% rate) to invest in EUR assets (2.0% rate), profiting from the +1.50% rate spread and +1.05% yield spread.
Current Viability:
Opportunity: The yield and rate differentials favor EUR, making the carry trade attractive.
Risks:
ECB Dovishness: Further rate cuts (markets price ~28% chance of a July cut) could narrow the spread.
BoJ Policy Shifts: Japan’s Ministry of Finance may reduce long-term bond issuance to curb yields , while the BoJ continues tapering bond purchases , limiting JPY weakness.
Trade Tensions: U.S. tariff policies cited by the ECB and BoJ could heighten volatility.
Key Data for JPY (Japan)
June 6:
2-Year JGB Auction: Yield at 0.691% (prev. 0.68%), signaling stable short-term debt demand.
3-Month Bill Auction: Reflects liquidity conditions and BoJ policy expectations.
Bank Lending YoY: Steady growth indicates domestic credit demand.
June 10:
PPI YoY: 4.0% (prev. 4.2%), easing input price pressures but still above BoJ’s 2% target.
June 11:
Machine Tool Orders YoY: 7.7% (prev. 8.1%), indicating slowing industrial demand amid global trade risks.
4. Key Economic Context
Eurozone: ECB cut rates to 2.00% but kept future easing options open, citing trade tensions and revised inflation forecasts (2.0% for 2025) .
Japan: BoJ held rates at 0.5% in May 2025, slashing GDP growth forecasts (0.5% for FY2025) due to trade risks .
Summary Table
Metric Eurozone (EUR) Japan (JPY)
10-Year Bond Yield 2.50% 1.45%
Policy Rate 2.00% 0.50%
Yield/Rate Spread +1.05% (bond), +1.50% (policy) —
Carry Trade Bias Bullish for EUR Bearish for JPY
Key Risks ECB dovishness, trade tensions BoJ yield control, fiscal sustainability
Conclusion
EUR/JPY Outlook: Moderately bullish for EUR due to yield and rate advantages, but UIP suggests potential long-term EUR depreciation.
Carry Trade: Profitable if ECB maintains rates and JPY remains weak, but monitor ECB guidance (July meeting) and BoJ bond issuance plans.
Trade Strategy: Favor EUR longs on dips toward demand floor.
EURJPY: Well supported Channel Up aiming for 166.700.EURJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.535, MACD = 0.340, ADX = 24.438) and is staging right now a rebound on the 1D MA50. This comes only days after the 1D MA200 HL rebound tight at the bottom of the Channel Up. This is a great opportunity to buy and aim for the R1 level (TP = 166.700).
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EURJPY: Waiting For ConfirmationEURJPY is currently in a bullish trend. Following a new higher high and close on the 4-hour chart, the pair started to consolidate within a horizontal range.
I'm looking for a bullish breakout above the resistance level, with a close above 164.26 on the 4-hour candle signaling buyer strength.
This would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, with the next resistance target at 165.00.
EURJPY 4H Short Setup📘 Educational Caption for Your Trading Chat
🟥 EURJPY 4H Short Setup (Smart Money Strategy)
I’ve entered a short on EURJPY from 163.884, following a solid Smart Money narrative — price respected a previous Order Block (O-B) and showed strong rejection after mitigating a supply zone.
📉 Entry: 163.884
🎯 Target: 162.657
🛡️ Stop Loss: 164.302
⚖️ Risk-Reward: ~1:3 — a clean and high-probability setup
The setup is based on a bearish Break of Structure (BOS) and a retracement into a premium zone. We’re now seeing reaction and rejection from the inefficiency (FVG), indicating a potential move back to demand.
🔔 Note: Entries like this require patience. Always let the trade play out — no rush.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This trade idea is shared for educational purposes only. Make sure to conduct your own analysis and manage your risk accordingly.
ECB Rate Cut - EUR/JPY Trading ImpactThe European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today, lowering the deposit rate to 2.00%. While this move is largely priced in, what matters for markets—especially EUR/JPY—is the forward guidance.
Relevance to EUR/JPY:
Rate Cut = EUR Bearish: Lower rates reduce euro appeal, especially vs. the yen, which is still heavily influenced by the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy. A clear ECB dovish tone may weigh on EUR/JPY.
ECB Caution May Limit EUR Downside: If the ECB signals it's nearing the end of cuts or expresses concern over sticky inflation, it could support EUR. This would limit downside in EUR/JPY or even trigger a rebound.
BOJ Policy Still Ultra-Loose: Japan’s rates remain near zero, and unless the BOJ surprises with a hawkish shift (unlikely short term), EUR/JPY is more likely to react to ECB tone than BOJ policy.
Risk Sentiment Matters: EUR/JPY often tracks risk appetite. If markets interpret the ECB cut as growth-supportive, and global equities rise, EUR/JPY could hold firm or climb despite the rate cut.
Trading Implications
Dovish ECB = EUR/JPY downside, especially if markets price in more cuts.
"One-and-done" message = EUR/JPY support or slight upside.
Watch for BOJ comments or risk sentiment shifts to fine-tune positioning.