EUR/JPY โ The Crash Is Loading...Retail just got wiped out again.
Look at this chart โ liquidity was taken above the previous highs, exactly where retail traders expected a breakout.
But hereโs the truth:
This was never a breakout โ it was smart money manipulation.
The market created fake momentum to trap buyers, then swept their stop losses and filled institutional sell orders at premium pricing.
Now the path is set:
Liquidity is taken โ
No strong continuation after breakout โ
Perfect rejection candle forming ๐ง
Price is likely to retrace all the way to the 162.00 demand zone and even deeper
โ๏ธ Why You Need to Act Now:
This is a textbook high risk-reward opportunity:
Entry after liquidity sweep
SL tight above the wick
Massive downside room
Smart money already positioned โ you should be too
๐ก Remember: The market doesnโt move by luck โ it moves by manipulation.
Those who understand thatโฆ capitalize on it.
JPYEUR trade ideas
EUR/JPY โ The Crash Is Loading...Retail just got wiped out again.
Look at this chart โ liquidity was taken above the previous highs, exactly where retail traders expected a breakout.
But hereโs the truth:
This was never a breakout โ it was smart money manipulation.
The market created fake momentum to trap buyers, then swept their stop losses and filled institutional sell orders at premium pricing.
Now the path is set:
Liquidity is taken โ
No strong continuation after breakout โ
Perfect rejection candle forming ๐ง
Price is likely to retrace all the way to the 162.00 demand zone and even deeper
โ๏ธ Why You Need to Act Now:
This is a textbook high risk-reward opportunity:
Entry after liquidity sweep
SL tight above the wick
Massive downside room
Smart money already positioned โ you should be too
๐ก Remember: The market doesnโt move by luck โ it moves by manipulation.
Those who understand thatโฆ capitalize on it.
EURJPY Tapped 4H Supply โ Massive Drop Loading?EURJPY | 30-Min View with 4H CRT Zones
๐ฅ This is where Smart Money sharpens their bladesโฆ
๐ง New Confluence Just Dropped:
๐ด CRT 4H High Zone: 165.108โ165.475
Price wicked right into the 4H Compression Reversal Top (CRT) โ ideal Smart Money trap zone
This area aligns perfectly with the bearish OB/supply from previous screenshot
๐ต CRT 4H Low Zone: Around 164.630
Strong structure level where liquidity is sitting
Price respected it as temporary support before likely break-and-retest continuation
๐ Price Action Logic:
โ
Price faked out above CRT 4H High, grabbing liquidity
โ
Immediate rejection candle with wick rejection signals institutional selling
๐ Now price is retesting the mid-OB / lower CRT, likely forming a breaker pattern
๐ฅ Huge clean imbalance to the downside โ marked by that juicy green TP box
๐ฝ Expectation: price fills inefficiency and heads to 163.378 minimum
๐ฏ Trade Parameters:
๐ป Entry Zone 165.100 โ 165.397 (Red Supply / CRT High)
๐ก SL Above 165.475 (CRT 4H High)
๐ฏ TP Target 163.378 (bottom imbalance fill)
โ๏ธ RRR Over 1:4 potential โ high precision entry zone
๐ง Chart Ninja Analysis:
โWhen CRT zones align with OBs and liquidity sweeps,
thatโs a Smart Money feast waiting to happen.โ โ ๐ฅท
This chart is a classic reversal blueprint. If you missed the first tap โ wait for the retest. If this holds below CRT Low (164.630), expect full bearish momentum into midweek.
๐ Confirmation Tactics:
๐ M15 bearish engulfing / shift in structure after tap into CRT
๐ป Break of 164.630 = confirmation of bearish intent
โณ Optional: use FVG + volume spike as further entry triggers
๐จ Save this chart โ it's one of those sniper moments where everything aligns!
EURJPY Bulls in Trouble? Massive Rejection Signals๐ Full Multi-Factor Analysis โ EUR/JPY
๐ 1. Price Action
EUR/JPY strongly rejected the key supply zone between 164.80โ165.50, aligned with a major static resistance.
Last week's breakout was invalidated by a clear bull trap, followed by a bearish engulfing candle.
Price broke below the ascending channel drawn since April and is now heading toward the 162.00 demand area.
The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, confirming a slowdown in momentum.
โก๏ธ Technical Bias: Bearish toward 161.50โ162.00, with a possible extension to 160.00.
๐ผ 2. COT Data โ Commitment of Traders
EUR Futures (CME)
Strong increase in commercial longs (+16,095) and non-commercial shorts (+4,830).
Suggests smart money is accumulating while retail/speculators are pressing shorts โ potential accumulation, but no breakout yet.
JPY Futures
Significant rise in non-commercial shorts (+10,575), while long positions declined.
The yen remains pressured, but extreme positioning could fuel a reversal if sentiment flips.
โก๏ธ COT Takeaway: Euro remains in bullish consolidation. Yen is heavily oversold โ ripe for mean reversion. Caution warranted.
๐ 3. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short from an average price of 160.46, while price now sits at 164.86.
The crowd is deep in drawdown โ a typical condition for short-term consolidations or fakeouts before reversals.
โก๏ธ Implication: Price may hover around 164+ to trap remaining retail shorts before unwinding.
๐ 4. Seasonality
June seasonality for EUR/JPY is historically neutral to bearish.
Only the 5-year data shows strength, while 15Y and 20Y trends reveal consistent downside starting mid-June.
โก๏ธ Seasonal Outlook: Adds further weight to a bearish correction scenario for the second half of the month.
โ
Actionable Summary
๐ Weekly Bias: Bearish
๐ Main Target: 162.00โ161.50
๐ Extended Target: 160.00
๐ Invalidation: Weekly close above 165.60
๐ง Final Thoughts
All major elements โ price action, COT, sentiment, and seasonality โ point toward a corrective move on EUR/JPY.
Given the strong underlying trend and retailโs positioning, watch out for bull traps before deeper downside.
Best setup: Sell the pullback or wait for clean breakdown below 163.00.
EURJPY Supply Tap! Bearish Reaction Coming?EURJPY (30-Min) | Supply Zone Hit + Bearish Reversal Setup
This EURJPY move is brewing into a classic SMC bearish play โ engineered liquidity run, supply zone reaction, and a projected melt to imbalance below. Letโs dissect the ninja logic ๐ง ๐
๐ Breakdown of the Setup:
๐ฅ Supply / Order Block Zone
Price enters a strong bearish OB zone between 165.100โ165.397
Previous rejection wicks in this zone = smart money sell interest
Price now testing that area again โ potential for liquidity sweep + reversal
๐ช Multi-Zone Confluence
Multiple overlapping zones stacked: OB, mitigation block, and liquidity sweep area
Perfect spot for Smart Money to unload positions before sending price lower
๐ Risk-Reward Optimization
Entry near 165.100โ165.397 zone
Stop Loss placed slightly above the last rejection wick (above 165.397)
Take Profit projected around 163.378 based on measured impulse leg and imbalance fill
๐ง Liquidity Narrative
The rally into supply is likely a buy-side liquidity hunt
Smart Money often drives price into key zones before triggering reversals
Price may wick above 165.171 to fake bulls before a strong sell-off
๐ง Chart Ninja Entry Plan:
๐ป Entry Zone 165.100 โ 165.397 (Supply OB)
๐ก SL Above 165.450 (above wick / last structure high)
๐ฏ TP Target 163.378 (imbalanced fill target)
โ๏ธ RRR Approx. 1:4+ depending on entry precision
๐ฅท Chart Ninja Note:
โThe trap is always set where the crowd feels the safest โ
and thatโs exactly where the ninja strikes.โ ๐ฅท๐
This setup could be a clean ride down if price reacts as expected. Confirmation entry = bearish engulfing on M15 or M30.
๐ Bonus Observation:
You can see lower timeframes building internal liquidity, meaning we might get a sharp, volatile drop once that top wick finishes sweeping.
๐Mark this zone and set an alert โ entry can trigger fast!
๐ฅ Whatโs your confirmation style โ engulfing candle or breaker structure?
Technical Analysis: JPY Price Action Near Resistance โ Potential๐ Technical Analysis: JPY Price Action Near Resistance โ Potential Reversal Ahead? โ ๏ธ
---
๐ Overview:
This chart illustrates the recent price action of a JPY-based asset (likely a JPY forex pair), currently testing a major resistance zone around the 165.286โ165.500 area. The market is reacting sharply at this level, suggesting a possible rejection and correction downward. The setup is marked with well-defined support/resistance levels and potential retracement targets.
---
๐ง Key Zones:
๐ Resistance Zone (165.286 โ 165.500): Price is currently reacting at this overhead supply zone. This level has historically rejected bullish attempts, as seen in previous price action.
๐ฉ Support Zone (161.302 โ 161.550): This demand zone has served as a strong base previously and is marked as the final potential retracement level (labeled "4") in the chart.
---
๐ป Retracement Levels:
Labeled as 1 through 4 in purple lines:
1. Level 1 โ 163.948 ๐ฃ: Initial minor support; might provide a short-term pause if price pulls back.
2. Level 2 โ 162.803 ๐: Mid-level support; watch for consolidation or bounce.
3. Level 3 โ 162.091 ๐งฒ: Stronger support and possible bounce level.
4. Level 4 โ 161.550 ๐ก๏ธ: Key support aligning with historical demand zone. A break below this could signal trend reversal.
---
๐ Price Projection:
The curved arrow indicates a potential correction from the resistance zone down toward the support levels, especially targeting Zone 4. This move reflects a typical market reaction when price meets strong resistance after a steep rally.
---
๐ Strategic Implications:
For Bulls ๐: Wait for confirmation of support at any of the retracement levels (especially 3 or 4) before entering.
For Bears ๐ป: This is an optimal area to look for short entries, especially if bearish candlestick patterns confirm rejection from the resistance zone.
---
โ
Conclusion:
Price is at a critical decision point near major resistance. A bearish reversal is likely if the resistance holds, with a corrective move toward 161.302โ161.550 being the most probable target range. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before committing to positions.
---
๐ Tip: Keep an eye on candlestick patterns and volume at the resistance zone to validate the reversal hypothesis.
EURJPY Long opportunity at 164.250EURJPY currently has bullish market directionality and is on a retracement from the 165.000 level toward the break and retest zone at 164.250. on the 4 hour timeframe price is trading above the 50 SMA and is in the Bullish RSI zone above 55 below 70. The 164.250 price points lays in the sweet spot between 45-55 in the RSI which signals the potential end of the retracement and pivot back towards the bullish momentum. Looking to ride this long position back towards the 165.000 resistance level.
eurjpy sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
EURJPY Technical AnalysisEUR/JPY Technical Analysis โ Buy vs. Sell Scenarios
Current Market Context (June 8, 2025)
Price: 165.018 (Closing)
Daily Change: +0.12% (Mild bullish momentum)
Key Levels:
Resistance: 165.277 (Daily High), 166.000 (Psychological), 167.000 (Upper Range)
Support: 164.741 (Daily Low), 164.000 (Critical), 162.000 (Strong Demand Zone)
Scenario 1: BUY (Long Trade)
Trigger:
Price holds above 164.741 (Daily Low) and bounces with rising volume.
Break above 165.277 (Daily High) confirms bullish continuation.
Targets:
166.000 (Psychological Resistance)
167.000 (Upper Range)
Stop-Loss: Below 164.000 (Invalidation Level)
Rationale:
Bullish momentum from the daily close (+0.12%).
Higher lows suggest buyer interest near 164.000โ164.741.
Scenario 2: SELL (Short Trade)
Trigger:
Price breaks below 164.741 (Daily Low) with increased selling volume.
Rejection from 165.277 (Daily High) signals weakness.
Targets:
164.000 (Support)
162.000 (Strong Demand Zone)
Stop-Loss: Above 165.300 (Above Daily High)
EURJPY Ascending channel and bullish fvg ๐จ EURJPY Trade Setup ๐จ
4H Timeframe Analysis by Livia ๐
๐น Pair: EURJPY
๐ Structure: Ascending Channel respected โ
๐ Breakout: Confirmed above Bullish FVG โ retest successful ๐ฅ
๐ Entry Zone: 163.200 (Minor Support Holding)
๐ Bias: Strong Bullish Momentum in play
๐ฏ Technical Target:
1๏ธโฃ 165.000 โ Next Key Resistance Level
๐ Risk Managed โ Watching PA for continuation or pullback setups.
#EURJPY #ForexSignals #PriceAction #BreakoutTrade #FVG #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #4HChart #LiviaTrades
LONG | EUR/JPY | 1D Macro Context: With ECB neutral and BoJ dovish, EUR/JPY favored to drift upward slowly as Yen weakness persists.
Structure: In a long-term bullish channel and recently bounced off the 50โday MA near 163.0โ163.5 .
Trigger:
Entry: Long on pullback to 163.50โ164.00.
Stop: 162.80 (below channel support & LVN).
Target: 166.70 (upper channel range) โ 168.00 zone.
R:R: ~1:2.5.
Framework: Entry aligns with liquidity sweep and bounce off HVN/50MA, supported by Elliott/Elliott-wave count and broader bullish range.
EURJPY : Bullish Breakout Indicates a Bigger MovementEURJPY: Bullish Breakout Indicates a Bigger Movement
Yesterday, during the ECB rate decision, EURJPY broke out from a large bullish pattern.
Actually, the price is testing the broken resistance, now turned into support.
The price is already testing 164.20 and probably during the coming week EURJPY may start a bigger bullish movement with targets 164.15 and 165.60
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
โค๏ธPS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading dayโค๏ธ
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURJPY: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
EURJPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURJPY
Entry Point - 164.60
Stop Loss - 165.15
Take Profit - 163.56
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โค๏ธ Please, support our work with like & comment! โค๏ธ
EURJPY Be ready to sell soon.Last time we looked at the EURJPY pair (February 26, see chart below), we gave a clear buy signal that wasted no time hitting straight our 162.250 Target:
With the Lower Highs trend-line now broken, a new pattern has emerged and that's a (blue) Channel Up. The current Bullish Leg is headed straight to the 8-month Resistance Zone, so we will be turning bearish there, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 162.250.
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
EURJPY Hit the CeilingPrice just kissed the 164.63 resistance Iโve been tracking and printed a rejection wick. Unless we close decisively above that shelf, Iโm treating it as a fresh supply zone. My base case is a drift back toward the mid-range support at 164
Structure: clear descending channel; latest rally only tagged the upper rail
EURJPYEUR/JPY Analysis: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differentials, UIP, and Carry Trade
1. Current Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differentials
Eurozone 10-Year Yield: ~2.50% (Germanyโs benchmark yield, down 3bps post-ECB rate cut) .
Japan 10-Year Yield: ~1.45% (recently fell to a 3-week low amid strong bond auctions) .
Yield Spread:
2.50% (EUR)โ1.45% (JPY)=+1.05%
The Eurozoneโs higher bond yield provides a carry advantage for EUR.
Policy Rate Differential:
ECB Deposit Rate: 2.00% (cut by 25bps on June 5, 2025) .
BoJ Rate: 0.50% (unchanged since March 2025) .
Rate Spread:
2.00% (EUR)โ0.50% (JPY)=+1.50%
2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
Theory: The EUR should depreciate against JPY to offset the +1.50% rate spread, eliminating arbitrage opportunities.
Reality: UIP often fails due to risk premiums and market dynamics. Despite the Eurozoneโs higher rates, EUR/JPY remains supported by carry trade demand and JPY weakness tied to BoJ policy.
3. Carry Trade Dynamics
Mechanics: Borrow JPY (0.5% rate) to invest in EUR assets (2.0% rate), profiting from the +1.50% rate spread and +1.05% yield spread.
Current Viability:
Opportunity: The yield and rate differentials favor EUR, making the carry trade attractive.
Risks:
ECB Dovishness: Further rate cuts (markets price ~28% chance of a July cut) could narrow the spread.
BoJ Policy Shifts: Japanโs Ministry of Finance may reduce long-term bond issuance to curb yields , while the BoJ continues tapering bond purchases , limiting JPY weakness.
Trade Tensions: U.S. tariff policies cited by the ECB and BoJ could heighten volatility.
Key Data for JPY (Japan)
June 6:
2-Year JGB Auction: Yield at 0.691% (prev. 0.68%), signaling stable short-term debt demand.
3-Month Bill Auction: Reflects liquidity conditions and BoJ policy expectations.
Bank Lending YoY: Steady growth indicates domestic credit demand.
June 10:
PPI YoY: 4.0% (prev. 4.2%), easing input price pressures but still above BoJโs 2% target.
June 11:
Machine Tool Orders YoY: 7.7% (prev. 8.1%), indicating slowing industrial demand amid global trade risks.
4. Key Economic Context
Eurozone: ECB cut rates to 2.00% but kept future easing options open, citing trade tensions and revised inflation forecasts (2.0% for 2025) .
Japan: BoJ held rates at 0.5% in May 2025, slashing GDP growth forecasts (0.5% for FY2025) due to trade risks .
Summary Table
Metric Eurozone (EUR) Japan (JPY)
10-Year Bond Yield 2.50% 1.45%
Policy Rate 2.00% 0.50%
Yield/Rate Spread +1.05% (bond), +1.50% (policy) โ
Carry Trade Bias Bullish for EUR Bearish for JPY
Key Risks ECB dovishness, trade tensions BoJ yield control, fiscal sustainability
Conclusion
EUR/JPY Outlook: Moderately bullish for EUR due to yield and rate advantages, but UIP suggests potential long-term EUR depreciation.
Carry Trade: Profitable if ECB maintains rates and JPY remains weak, but monitor ECB guidance (July meeting) and BoJ bond issuance plans.
Trade Strategy: Favor EUR longs on dips toward demand floor.
EURJPY: Well supported Channel Up aiming for 166.700.EURJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.535, MACD = 0.340, ADX = 24.438) and is staging right now a rebound on the 1D MA50. This comes only days after the 1D MA200 HL rebound tight at the bottom of the Channel Up. This is a great opportunity to buy and aim for the R1 level (TP = 166.700).
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