GBP/JPY -H1- Channel Breakout (14.07.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 196.70
2nd Support – 195.53
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JPYGBP trade ideas
Waiting for the bigger move with GBPJPYHi Traders!
Right now, GJ is failing to swing higher at a major resistance at 199.200. Looking at the 4HR, yesterday July 16th, price wicked down to 198.000 retesting a previous 4HR CHOCH, then pulling back up to continue consolidation in between 198.000 and 199.200. However, on the 4HR price didn't close below 198.000 with continuation, which would make me believe that if the new 4HR CHOCH is valid, eventually price will break through 199.200. This will require patience if I want a bigger move. A more conservative approach to this trade, for me, would be entering on the break with a retest/bounces off 199.200.
SL below a new HL, TP1: 201.000, Overall TP: 202.000.
In addition, the only way I would sell is if price broke down past 198.500/198.200, and kept rejecting. Then, I could see a downside. But, imo price action just it's giving that confirmation right now.
*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
GBPJPY - Trading The Range!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈GBPJPY has been hovering within a big range.
This week, GBPJPY is retesting the upper bound of the range and $200 round number.
As long as the resistance holds, we will be looking for shorts on lower timeframes, targeting the lower bound of the range.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBP/JPY) Bearish Analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY on the 3-hour timeframe, suggesting a potential short-term pullback within a larger ascending channel.
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Analysis Summary
Pair: GBP/JPY
Timeframe: 3H
Current Price: 198.883
Bias: Bearish move toward channel support
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Key Technical Insights
1. Ascending Channel Formation:
Price is moving within an upward-sloping channel.
Current structure suggests price is heading toward the lower trendline support.
2. Support Level & Target Zone:
The yellow zone around 196.355 is a major support area and target point, coinciding with both structural support and the bottom of the channel.
3. EMA (200 Close):
Price is still above the 200 EMA (197.067), so overall trend remains bullish — but current move is a correction.
4. RSI (14):
RSI is neutral near 51.14, allowing room for further downward movement before becoming oversold.
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Target Point
Target: 196.355 (support zone and bottom of channel)
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Trade Idea
Direction Entry Stop-Loss Target
Sell 198.80–199.00 Above 199.70 196.35
SMC trading point
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Summary
GBP/JPY is likely to retrace toward support at 196.35 before possibly bouncing within the larger bullish structure. This offers a short-term selling opportunity, with potential buy setups near the lower trendline later.
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GBPJPY: floating at the top – is a drop being loaded?GBPJPY is hovering around 198.91 after an impressive rally, but now it's trapped between two key zones: 199.85 – a resistance level that keeps rejecting price, and 198.20 – a fragile support below. The price action reveals a tense sideways pattern, like a spring coiling up before release.
What’s concerning is that buyers have attempted to break above the high multiple times and failed – and each failure comes with weaker rebounds. With the Bank of England shifting toward a “pause” stance and the yen gaining mild support from rising risk-off sentiment, the market is starting to lean toward a correction.
If price breaks below 198.20, it could mark the beginning of a deeper slide back toward the lower boundary of the channel. Don’t be fooled by the silence – sometimes, calm is the precursor to a sharp fall.
GBPJPY: Get Ready to Buy 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY is consolidating within a narrow horizontal range
on a daily time frame.
I am waiting for its bullish breakout and a daily candle close above
199.85 to confirm the next bullish wave.
A rise will be expected to 201 level then.
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Volatile Times for GBPJPY: What’s Going On Behind the Moves?Good morning, Guys,
I’m anticipating a new short opportunity on GBPJPY once the pair reaches my sell zone level. From there, my target is set at 197.934.
Every like from you is what truly motivates me to keep sharing these insights.
Massive thanks to everyone who shows love and support!
GBPJPY BULLISH OR BEARIS DETAILED ANALYSISGBPJPY has successfully broken out of a long-term falling wedge on the weekly chart, and the bullish momentum is unfolding as expected. Price has rallied from 190.00 to the current 197.00 level, delivering solid profits from the breakout zone. This continuation setup is extremely strong, with the market respecting the wedge breakout structure and forming higher highs. As long as we hold above the 190.00 support, the bullish bias remains fully intact, with 205.00 as the next key upside target.
Fundamentally, the British pound remains well-supported due to the Bank of England’s hawkish stance. Despite softer inflation data, the BoE has signaled a cautious approach to rate cuts compared to other central banks, maintaining underlying GBP strength. On the other side, the Japanese yen continues to weaken as the Bank of Japan sticks with its ultra-loose monetary policy. Yen weakness is further fueled by rising US and UK bond yields, widening the yield differential and attracting carry trades into GBPJPY.
Technically, the breakout is unfolding with textbook precision. Price has cleared descending resistance, retested it, and is now building a new leg higher. The volume profile is supporting this bullish breakout, and market structure is confirming further upside. The 200.00 psychological level may act as a minor resistance, but once cleared, 205.00 is well within range and aligns with major Fibonacci extensions.
GBPJPY is also benefiting from increased volatility in risk-on sentiment, as equity markets remain firm and bond yields rise globally. Traders are favoring high-yielding currencies like GBP while shorting low-yielders like JPY. With the fundamentals and technicals now strongly aligned, this trade is well-positioned to deliver continued profits toward 205.00 and beyond.
GBPJPY Large Reversal Pattern [Elliott Wave]Executive Summary:
GBPJPY shaping a diagonal pattern.
Large bearish reversal could push down to 184.
Above 202.40 voids the pattern as labeled.
I typically don't conduct Elliott wave analysis on cross pairs simply because they are the children of the two main currencies involved. GBPJPY is the child of GBPUSD and USDJPY.
With that said, I still scroll through charts looking for compelling patterns and GBPJPY caught my attention.
First, it's knocking on the door of 200...a nice round number.
Secondly, the rally from 184 in April to now appears to be a very mature Elliott wave ending diagonal pattern .
Diagonals shape in 5 waves. Remember, wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1,3,5. Since wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, that means wave 5 cannot be longer than wave 3.
So we simply measure out wave 3 and apply it to the end of wave 4, and, voila, we have a maximum target for wave 5 at 202.40 .
That maximum target doesn't mean GBPJPY has to go that high, but this market is ripe for a large bearish turn. If GBPJPY does push above 202.40, then my wave labeling is incorrect.
Ending diagonals tend to be fully retraced which implies a decline back to 184 ... 1500 pips from today's price.
GBJPY may dance around in the 199 handle for a day or two.
A break below 199 could be an early warning signal of the bearish reversal. A break below the blue support trend line helps confirm the pattern.
If this bearish reversal takes hold, then GBPUSD or USDJPY likely experiences a large decline too.
GBPJPY - Multi-Year Short Update! In our last setup for GBPJPY, we identified a massive diagonal pattern, with price completing wave 4 and preparing for a multi-year drop into wave 5.
Since then, price has played out exactly as forecasted — we've seen a clean impulse lower for wave 1, followed by an ABC correction for wave 2, which looks to have now completed.
This sets the stage for the next major leg — wave 3 of 5 — which historically carries the most power and momentum.
📉 See monthly chart here:
📊 GBP/JPY Wave‑3 Trade Idea
Background:
We’ve completed wave 1 down and wave 2 up (ABC correction).
GBPJPY is now positioned to start a powerful wave 3 down — the most impulsive leg in an Elliott sequence.
🔍 Current Price Action:
Price is rejecting major resistance (previous wave A high + shaded zone)
Structure shows a completed 5-wave move up within C, suggesting exhaustion.
A clean ascending trendline (red) has formed under wave v — a break here signals the first confirmation.
Option 1 – Aggressive Entry:
- Trigger: Break and close below the red trendline (~198.00–197.80 zone) on the daily.
- Entry: On candle close below trendline
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Option 2 – Conservative Entry (preferred):
- Trigger: Trendline break + correction
- Entry: On bearish confirmation and then a correction to indicate further downside
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Take Profit Levels:
- TP1: 192
- TP2: 180
- TP3: 175
- Final Target: Trail for extended move toward wave (3) lows (could be 10,000+ pips over long term)
🔐 Invalidation:
Daily close back above 200.00 or impulsive rally beyond the pink resistance zone invalidates the short bias in the short term.
✅ Summary:
This is a high-conviction, structure-backed setup with:
- Wave count + Fib confluence
- Bearish structure at key resistance
- Confirmation-based trigger (trendline break + retest)
- Excellent long-term risk-to-reward profile
📂 Previous GBPJPY Setups (Track Record):
📌 Free Setup (Big Picture Outlook) – Multi-Year Shorts Incoming (Wave 4 Completion)
✅ Swing 1 – 1,200 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Long)
✅ Swing 2 – 1,000 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 3 – 1,100 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 4 – 700 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
GBP/JPY - Potential TargetsDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
PIVOT @ 195.650
Psychological Resistance @ 200.000
1) Daily bull trend intact at this time
2) Resistance has the potential to force a correction
3) As long as price remains above PIVOT, bullish potential
remains high.
Keynote:
Monitor price action at your daily trend closely in case of a correction.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.