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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

USDJPY and US10Y Late last summer on Aug 5th when the Yen Carry trade unwound, the S&P 500 fell more than 5% intraday and VIX spiked to 60. This marked a localized bottom on the USDJPY daily chart with US10Y making 52 week lows the following month Sept. Since then, the US10Y has been on a relentless run to the 52-week high of 4.79%. This reminds us that under the surface there might be Yen carry trade in full swing. That means traders / investors are borrowing at low interest rate in JPY and then buying the US10Y to get the interest rate differential. This is also pushing the US Dollar index to recent ATH. There might be sharp reversals when the USDJPY carry trades unwind. Watch for key levels in US10Y and DXY. US10Y at 5% might be the turning point which will mark a failed breakout at Oct 2023 highs.
by RabishankarBiswal
USD/JPY (UJ) Analysis (Daily Timeframe)The USD/JPY pair has been following a clear market cycle, transitioning from distribution to markdown , followed by accumulation , and now entering a bullish markup phase , showcasing strong bullish momentum. Key Observations: Market Phases: Distribution Phase: The bullish move ended near the 162 level , where sellers gained control, initiating a markdown. Accumulation Phase: After a significant markdown, UJ found a base around the 140 level, forming an accumulation phase with demand coming back into the market. Current Phase: The pair has now broken out of accumulation and is in a bullish move, with a well-defined structure of higher highs and higher lows. EMA Surfing and Momentum: The price is currently surfing upward along the EMAs , showing strong trend-following behavior with EMAs acting as dynamic support. The tightening of the EMAs during the accumulation phase has now expanded , supporting the continuation of the bullish move. Scenarios to Watch: Continuation to Targets: USD/JPY could continue its bullish momentum toward the short-term target near 159 and potentially the medium-term target around 162. This aligns with the ongoing strength in the USD and the current bullish structure . Pullback for Reaccumulation: A potential retracement could act as a reaccumulation phase, gathering liquidity before resuming the uptrend.
Long
by TraderOuss_LumaNex
USDJPY – in accumulation phase but undoubtedly bullish .. 13 JanWeekly – Bullish, although it has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. Daily – same as weekly. Please note that the bears have been unable to push price lower. Price is well above the 200dma. The area around 156.20 was has been tested multiple times and provides solid support (was resistance earlier). H4 – In line with the weekly and daily charts. A pullback to 156.20 and a bullish bounce there would be ideal, however that may not happen. We could see bullish price action even earlier. I will be monitoring PA closely and look for taking an entry whenever I see convincing bullish strength. An obvious target would be the next resistance in the 161.70 region. This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Long
by Trading_Vista
Dollar-yen hovers around six-month highsAs with euro-dollar, the main fundamental factor recently for dollar-yen has been monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s recent moderate hawkishness seems more questionable now with real annual wages having fallen recently while the Fed seems to be confirmed to cut only twice this year. The break above ¥158 in the last few days hasn’t led to a clear breakout but a small retracement lower. In the context of the slow stochastic having signalled overbought consistently for nearly a month now, that might suggest that consolidation or possibly losses are more likely than another immediate movement upward. ATR has been extremely low recently, which could also signal a change of direction. Within the wide channel between ¥161 and ¥150 there’s considerable scope for movement around important upcoming data from the USA. A more positive NFP would usually suggest higher inflation also, but there are exceptions to this. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
USDJPY Wave Analysis 8 January 2025 - USDJPY broke resistance level 158.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00 USDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance level 158.00, which is the upper border of the narrow sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from December. The breakout of the resistance level 158.00 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of December. Given the clear daily uptrend and the continued bullish US dollar sentiment, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 160.00.
Long
by FxProGlobal
USDJPY: consolidates ahead of FOMC minutesUSD/JPY remains near multi-month highs as the market awaits the FOMC minutes. Uncertainty over Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy and the wide US-Japan yield spread continue to pressure the Japanese Yen. Recent statements by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda suggest that future rate hikes will depend on economic and financial developments, while in the US, strong economic data supports the USD. Non-manufacturing PMI and job openings beat expectations, boosting Treasury yields. From a technical point of view, USD/JPY maintains a bullish bias initiated last month as long as it trades above 158.00, with targets at 159.00 and 161.946 (its last high to beat). Its key support is located at 157.00, the loss of which could trigger a move to deeper correction zones. If we observe the price is currently located around the Check Point, supporting its price above the most common trading zones. If the movement continues in a bullish tone, it could look for the midpoint of the channel. At the moment it seems to be in a mixed movement after a compression zone between the month of October and part of December. The RSI is currently overbought at 67% and the average cross continues to widen its price, so it does not look like it will stay there and seek to test the price of the highs of July last year. The market will be watching the FOMC minutes, which could influence the direction of the dollar ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
USDJAPY Upwards Understanding trading strategies and effective risk management is crucial for success in the financial markets. For example, in the case of USD/JPY trading, the buy point is set at 158.20, with take-profit levels at 158.70, 159.50, and 160.80. These levels represent potential targets where traders may exit positions to secure profits. At the same time, a stop-loss point at 157.00 acts as a safeguard to limit losses in case the market moves unfavorably. Such measures are essential because trading involves inherent risks, and no strategy guarantees success. To navigate the markets effectively, traders must continuously learn and adapt, updating their knowledge and refining their strategies based on market changes and trends. Diversifying investments is another critical step to mitigate risks. For instance, relying on multiple instruments or markets reduces the potential impact of a single adverse movement. Additionally, tools like stop-loss orders provide an automated way to protect capital by exiting trades when a predetermined loss limit is reached. This approach aligns with the principle of never risking more than you can afford to lose. Successful trading requires discipline, patience, and an analytical mindset. By setting realistic goals and adhering to a structured plan, traders can make informed decisions and adapt to evolving conditions. Risk management is the foundation of long-term success, allowing traders to weather losses while capitalizing on profitable opportunities. Above all, consistency and a willingness to learn from both successes and failures are key to achieving growth and resilience in the financial markets.
Long
by EXPERT117Ai
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