USDJPY - Signs of Pull backUSDJPY has broken through the descending trendline after printing strong divergence on MACD. The break out is supported by decent volume bars indicating we might be in for pullback now.
JPYUSD trade ideas
USD/JPY 4H AnalysisUSDJPY Trade Idea: Bearish Flag Breakdown and Key Technical Levels
Trade Setup Overview
Pattern Identified: Bearish Flag breakdown (continuation pattern) after a prior downtrend.
Key Resistance: 100-period Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic resistance.
Entry Trigger: Retest of the broken flag's lower boundary near 149.300.
Targets:
TP1: 148.30 (100 pips, aligns with the flag's measured move).
TP2: 146.60 (270 pips, targets a major swing low and psychological level).
Stop Loss: 150.00 (70 pips risk, above the flag's upper boundary and recent swing high).
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Critical Technical Factors
1. Bearish Flag Dynamics:
The flag's "pole" (prior decline) suggests a measured move target of ~148.30 (TP1).
A close below the flag confirms momentum; watch for follow-through selling.
2. Confluence with Moving Averages:
The 100-MA resistance reinforces bearish pressure. A rejection here adds confidence to the downtrend.
A break below the 200-MA (if applicable) would signal a deeper bearish shift.
3. Key Support Levels:
148.30: Near-term target (previous swing low).
146.60: Long-term support (2023 lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2021-2023 rally).
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Risk Management
Risk-Reward Ratio:
TP1: 1:1.4 (70 pips risk vs. 100 pips reward).
TP2: 1:3.8 (70 pips risk vs. 270 pips reward).
Adjust Stops: Trail stops to breakeven if TP1 is hit to lock in gains.
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Fundamental Catalysts to Monitor
1. Fed Policy: Dovish signals (rate cuts) could accelerate USD weakness.
2. BOJ Intervention: Watch for verbal or direct action to defend JPY above 150.00.
3. Risk Sentiment: JPY strength may surge if equity markets sell off (safe-haven flows).
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Execution Plan
Sell Entry: 149.300 (wait for price to retest the broken flag boundary).
TP1: 148.30 (partial profit-taking).
TP2: 146.60 (requires sustained bearish momentum).
Stop Loss: 150.00 (avoids false breakdowns).
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Your trade plan is now structured and polished for sharing. Let me know if you need any tweaks!
Trade Setup: USD/JPY Long PositionI have entered a long position on USD/JPY following a confirmed breakout and close above the descending trendline on the 1-hour timeframe. The breakout signals a potential shift in momentum, with price now reclaiming key levels.
Entry: 149.20 (Breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: 148.70 (Below recent structure support)
Risk Management Level: 149.00 (Adjusting SL if price moves favorably)
Target Levels:
TP1: 149.62 - Moving SL to BE at this point to manage risk
TP2: 150.12
TP3: 150.93
Trade Rationale:
Price has broken and closed above a well-defined descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
The recent bullish candles show momentum, suggesting buyers are stepping in.
Risk is managed with a stop below recent lows, allowing room for volatility while protecting capital.
Targets are aligned with key resistance levels where price may react.
USD/JPY... 4H pair...Here’s a structured analysis and actionable plan for the *USDJPY* trade idea based on the bearish flag breakdown and key technical levels:
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### *Trade Setup Overview*
- *Pattern Identified*: Bearish Flag breakdown (continuation pattern) after a prior downtrend.
- *Key Resistance*: 100-period Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic resistance.
- *Entry Trigger: Retest of the broken flag’s lower boundary near **149.300*.
- *Targets*:
- *TP1: 148.30* (100 pips, aligns with the flag’s measured move).
- *TP2: 146.60* (270 pips, targets a major swing low and psychological level).
- *Stop Loss: **150.00* (70 pips risk, above the flag’s upper boundary and recent swing high).
---
### *Critical Technical Factors*
1. *Bearish Flag Dynamics*:
- The flag’s "pole" (prior decline) suggests a measured move target of *~148.30* (TP1).
- A close below the flag confirms momentum; watch for follow-through selling.
2. *Confluence with Moving Averages*:
- The 100-MA resistance reinforces bearish pressure. A rejection here adds confidence to the downtrend.
- A break below the 200-MA (if applicable) would signal a deeper bearish shift.
3. *Key Support Levels*:
- *148.30*: Near-term target (previous swing low).
- *146.60*: Long-term support (2023 lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2021-2023 rally).
---
### *Risk Management*
- *Risk-Reward Ratio*:
- TP1: *1:1.4* (70 pips risk vs. 100 pips reward).
- TP2: *1:3.8* (70 pips risk vs. 270 pips reward).
- *Adjust Stops*: Trail stops to breakeven if TP1 is hit to lock in gains.
---
### *Fundamental Catalysts to Monitor*
1. *Fed Policy*: Dovish signals (rate cuts) could accelerate USD weakness.
2. *BOJ Intervention*: Watch for verbal or direct action to defend JPY above 150.00.
3. *Risk Sentiment*: JPY strength may surge if equity markets sell off (safe-haven flows).
---
### *Execution Plan*
🔽 *Sell Entry*: 149.300 (wait for price to retest the broken flag boundary).
🎯 *TP1*: 148.30 (partial profit-taking).
🎯 *TP2*: 146.60 (requires sustained bearish momentum).
🚫 *Stop Loss*: 150.00 (avoids false breakdowns).
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### *Will the USD Continue to Decline?*
- *Yes, but with caution: The bearish flag and MA resistance favor downside, but JPY’s inherent weakness (BOJ’s ultra-loose policy) may limit sustained USDJPY declines. Focus on **TP1 (148.30)* as a high-probability target, while TP2 depends on broader USD trends and macro drivers.
*Key Takeaway*: Trade aligns with short-term momentum, but remain agile given JPY’s sensitivity to central bank policies and risk sentiment.
Trade Setup: USDJPYIn this video, I’m sharing a high-probability trade setup on USDJPY, explaining exactly why I am taking a buy, how I arrived at this decision, and my clear target for this trade.
🔍 What You’ll Learn:
✅ Detailed technical breakdown of USDJPY 📊
✅ How I analyze market structure for trade confirmation 🔎
✅ Key liquidity zones & areas of value 📉📈
✅ How to set realistic targets and manage risk 🎯
✅ Smart Money Concepts (SMC) & price action analysis
Whether you're a beginner or an advanced trader, this breakdown will help you understand the thought process behind a well-planned forex trade setup.
💡 Watch now and let’s break down the market together!
📌 Drop a comment – Do you agree with this trade setup? What’s your outlook on USDJPY? 🚀
👍 Like & Share this with a trader who needs it!
UJ 15M READY TO GO FILL THIS MORNING GAPCorrection Buy will Target 149.48, then from there i can see possible go up and fill the gap (around 149.81 which will be good selling area after we get CANDLE CONFIRMATION)
Happy trading everyone
USDPY SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA Retest
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 151.000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 4.85
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USD/JPY - ShortWeekly (Bias Validation)
- Price between EMAs → ❌ Ranging
- Major Swing Point High: 158.880 Low: 146.543
D1 (Daily): Trend Bias
- Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias
- Major Swing Point High: 154.804 Low: 146.543
- ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance
- Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias
H4 (4-Hour): Trend Bias
- Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias
- Major Swing Point High: 151.214 Low: 149.684
- ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance
- Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias
- High-Probability Entry Zones (H4 OTE)
- H4 OB (OTE)
H1 (1-Hour): Trend Bias
- Swing Point High: 150.953 Low: 149.684
- ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance
- H4 OB → (OTE)
- H1 OB → (OTE)
🔲 Validate with VWAP:
✔ ✅ H1 VWAP must align with H4 OTE before entry
✔ ✅ If price rejects H1 VWAP + OB midpoint, strong trade setup
🔲 Entry Options:
✔ Option 1 (Limit Order Entry):
* Place a limit order at the OB midpoint inside OTE
* Set stop-loss below OB (for longs) / above OB (for shorts)
✔ Option 2 (EMA Confirmation Entry):
* ✅ Enter when 9EMA crosses 21EMA near OTE
* ✅ Must have Volume Imbalance Confirmation
🔲 Final Confirmation:
✔ ✅ High Volume on Structure Break → Confirms strong move
✔ ✅ Low Volume on Pullback → Smart money accumulation
possible sellThe price is already in the demand zone in the four-hour time frame. If it breaks 149.506 to remove liquidity, it will retest and then rally down to 147.036, but if it fails to break 149.506, then the price will buy to 151.219 and finally sell off to 147.036
USDJPY bearish engulfing, bearish flag , bearish hammerThe USD JPY was in correction mode of the down trend, On daily time frame it has formed the bearish engulfing candle along with that we can also see a bearish flag and on weekly chart it has formed the inverted hammer , all these indciates the proce gone go down to 145.5 where it has strong support.
USDJPY - Key Levels to WatchThe USD/JPY pair is showing an interesting setup on the 4-hour chart—here's what to watch:
🔹 1️⃣ Ascending Channel in Play: The pair is trending within a bullish channel, signaling an overall upward momentum. Traders should keep an eye on this structure for potential opportunities.
🔹 2️⃣ Support Zone Under Test: Price action is near the critical blue-shaded support area at 149.815. This level has historically held as a strong rebound zone. Buyer activity here could determine the next move!
🔹 3️⃣ Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Case: A strong bounce from the support zone could propel the price higher, maintaining the channel's bullish trend.
Bearish Case: A failure to hold the support level may lead to further declines, possibly testing the lower boundary of the channel.
Insights for Traders: Patience is key—monitor the 149.815 zone for signals before committing to a trade. The combination of price patterns and volume data will provide clarity.
USDJPY swing trade idea Next week, I expect usdjpy to retest 148.000 possibly before the full bullish move will be expected. entry 148.000
SL 146.000 TP 158.000
USDJPY Week 14 29032025Our point of reference is what the market has provided. The pair was supplied from price 158.750 on 10-01-2025 making that price level our resistance. Price failed to push below 146.750 on 11-03-2025 and this will serve as a demand price. Price has retraced to 38% of the bearish move. Therefore in the short term, the pair is bullish. The market can play out the following scenarios.
It can be complete bullishness that completes the retracement or
It can be 61% retracement or
The move can void the retracement bias and the main move becomes bullish
And long term is bearish.
So if you want to buy, you can
entry price 150 (buy stop)
take profit 152.5
stop loss 149.25
lot size 0.01
For those of us who wants to sell, we let the bulls run out
entry price 146.750 (sell stop)
take profit 140
stop loss 150
lot size 0.01
Disclaimer: Not a trading advice, practice on demo account from your broker
If you like my post give it boost so that others can find it. If you disagree with my bias, leave a comment and let's chat
Trade idea for upcoming week. bearish opportunity on UJThis week price hit 4h order block that was created two weeks ago and broke structure on the downside. From then, there is a higher chance that price will drop next week. However, nothing is guarantee in trading. A proper risk management is always required on every trade!!!
USDJPY BulishThere is market structure shift in daily timeframe. The price is retesting previous resistance (current support) and 23.6 Fibo level and lower line of uptrend channel. There is a divergence in lower timeframe and a price action. Price is targeting 38.2, 50 and upper channel line.
USDJPY SHORT Same setup from previous week, Price respected structure, going to look for an opportunity again
Market structure bearish DW
Entry at both Weekly and Daily
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 149.000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 9.99
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USD/JPY 4H – Bearish Setup Forming?The pair is rejecting a major supply zone, signaling potential downside movement. A liquidity sweep paired with imbalance zone may have fueled this reversal, and price is now testing lower levels.
📊 Key Observations:
✔ Supply Zone Rejection: Price reacted strongly from the 151.200–151.500 zone.
✔ Liquidity Grab ($$$): Stops above the highs may have been taken before the sell-off.
✔ Imbalance (IMB) & Demand Zone: The 147.600–147.800 area remains untested and could act as a target.
🔎 Trade Idea: A short position could be considered upon a retracement into the smaller supply zone (150.600–150.900), targeting the demand zone below.
USDJPY POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY ALERT!Price has been moving in a channel since last week and we might likely see a massive decline in price following the recent drop last Friday. A sell opportunity is envisaged once price drops lower at the button board. Our target profit is 146.772
USDJPY Bullish OutlookHere is my analysis for USDJPY for the coming weeks.
Price is approaching correctively towards the Lower time frame 0.618-0.500 area or Golden ratio, price is currently forming a Running Flat pattern and may react from that Buy zone area. Another scenario, price may be forming an Expanding Flat pattern or may go lower between 0.786-0.618 area before price reacts towards the upside.
Once the price reacts on the Buy zone, it will be expected to impulsively towards the Sell zone area or Higher time frame 0.618-0.500 or Golden ratio. From there, we might be expecting a long-term Bearish Outlook.
USD/JPY BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Previous week’s red candle means that for us the USD/JPY pair is in the downtrend. And the current movement leg was also down but the support line will be hit soon and lower BB band proximity will signal an oversold condition so we will go for a counter-trend long trade with the target being at 150.465.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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ShortYesterday, I opened a short position during the Asian session and published my trade set up , but I ended up manually closing the position before the US open becauseI was a bit anxious about US GDP data.
But the main concern was the price was hovering around the major support and resistance area and I could see valid reasons to go long as well.
The obvious reason for the long position was the price was forming big inverted head and shoulder patterns. So, if the price broke above the resistance area, there would have been a great upside potential.
However, after the US session opened, I ended up opening a short position. The reasons are written in the article I published yesterday. Please read that article that is linked below.
But another argument I would like to add for the bear scenario is this.
In Nov-Dec 2024, we had a very similar set up ( dark blue rectangular box in the chart.) At the time, the price was also forming the inverted head and shoulder at the same support/resistance zone. Once it broke the resistance line, it took off to the upside. And that same scenario can unfold this time as well.
However, what is different between Dec 2024 period and the current period are:
1) VWAP (volume weighted average price) drawn from the major low in 24th Sept was working as support but this time the same VWAP is working as resistance.
2) MACD and RSI were moving from bear zone to the bull zone, but this time they are moving to the downside from the bull zone.
Therefore, I think the momentum is to the downside this time. The only time will tell.
My current short position is quite small. However, once the direction becomes more clear I plan to add more position because the move to the downside from here can be quite significant.
Bearish USDJPY 31 Mar 2025Weekly has a bullish trendline breakout but looking ahead Trump's tariff likely to create volatility for OANDA:USDJPY
Looking to sell near 151 after 4H CHOCH.
