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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USD/JPY: Fundamental Analysis and Potential UpsideUSD/JPY: Fundamental Analysis and Potential Upside 1️⃣ Monetary Policy Divergence: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to bolster the USD, driven by strong economic data such as robust GDP growth and resilient labor markets. Inflation pressures remain persistent, keeping rate cuts off the table. The Bank of Japan’s dovish policies—including negative interest rates and yield curve control—keep the yen under pressure. Although recent inflation data has sparked speculation about potential shifts, the BOJ remains committed to its accommodative stance for now. 2️⃣ Interest Rate Differentials: The widening gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates attracts investors to the USD, encouraging carry trades that favor the dollar over the yen. 3️⃣ Rising U.S. Treasury Yields: Higher U.S. bond yields make the dollar more attractive, amplifying upward momentum in USD/JPY. 4️⃣ Risk Sentiment: Global markets currently exhibit improved risk appetite, which weighs on the safe-haven yen. However, shifts in geopolitical or financial stability concerns could reverse this dynamic. 📊 Outlook: USD/JPY's upward trajectory is fueled by strong fundamentals, but traders should remain vigilant for signs of BOJ intervention or major shifts in global risk sentiment. Like and follow for more insights! 🌟
Long
by alakorn_FX
Currency drama unfolds in Japan & KoreaAsia is where the drama in currency currently resides. The Japanese yen found support today following South Korea's decision to declare martial law, prompting a flight to safety across markets. The South Korean won tumbled to ₩1,444 at one point, its lowest since October 2022 (now trades at ₩1,416). Over the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that additional rate hikes are approaching, as economic data aligns with expectations. Market sentiment has now shifted, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in Japan this month rising to approximately 60%, up from 50%. Technically, a deeper decline in the USD/JPY could target the 61.8% retracement level from the July high to the September low. Daily Awesome Oscillators remain in bearish territory, signaling caution for significant moves, as short-term momentum continues to weaken.
by BlackBull_Markets
Trade Recap: EURUSD - SHORT (SCALE-IN), 03/12/2024EU Bias Analysis: The 4H Is in the process of establishing a bearish pro-trend as price broke lower. Partial profit had been secured and stops were at breakeven which allowed me to then seek scale-in opportunities on this pair. Short entries were in line with the bearish 1H range and price had pulled back into EPD. After a TBL sweep heading into London Open short entry confirmation was received and the scale in was executed. Grade: Low Risk
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Last month of 2024! UJ OutlookUJ looks good in the forex space. Inside candle close with Nov's monthly candle. Last week was expansive, taking out 3 previous weeks' lows. With that in mind, I can see some need to retrace higher back into Nov's monthly candle before attacking 50% of the CRT range. If overall bullish then buy opportunities rest there. If overall bearish the CRT range Low and eventually the swing low could be on the menu. NFP week so watching price action for the week with anticipation for Thurs/Fri.
by Ay40Cal
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias as Economic DataUSDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias as Economic Data and Market Sentiment Weigh on the Pair 03/12/2024 Introduction USDJPY is expected to show a slight bearish bias today as a combination of weaker U.S. economic data, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and strengthening risk sentiment exert downward pressure on the pair. This article breaks down the key factors influencing USDJPY’s potential move today, highlighting the fundamental drivers behind the bearish outlook. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY 1. Dovish Fed Outlook and U.S. Economic Data The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent stance has remained cautious, signaling that further interest rate hikes are less likely in the near term. This dovish bias, coupled with disappointing economic data from the U.S., including weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI and labor market figures, is reducing the appeal of the U.S. dollar (USD) relative to other currencies. As market expectations for a pause in U.S. monetary tightening grow, the USD faces pressure, contributing to the bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Improved Global Risk Sentiment There has been a shift towards a risk-on sentiment in global markets, with stock markets showing positive momentum. As investors turn to riskier assets, the Japanese yen (JPY) tends to benefit due to its status as a safe-haven currency. A strong yen in a risk-on environment can weigh on USDJPY, especially as the Japanese economy shows resilience in key sectors like exports and manufacturing. 3. Declining U.S. Bond Yields U.S. Treasury yields have softened recently, which has reduced the appeal of holding U.S. assets. Lower yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar less attractive, particularly against currencies like the JPY, which has relatively higher yield expectations. This decline in U.S. bond yields contributes to the negative sentiment around USDJPY. 4. Positive Data from Japan Japan's economic fundamentals are showing strength, particularly in the export sector. Data indicating stable economic growth and a positive outlook for Japan’s trade balance further supports the Japanese yen. As Japan benefits from stronger export performance, the JPY is gaining in value, adding pressure to USDJPY's upward momentum. --- Technical Analysis Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY is trading just below its 50-day moving average, suggesting a potential for bearish continuation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought territory, indicating that the pair may be nearing a correction. If the RSI continues to fall, it could signal a deeper pullback in the pair. MACD and Key Levels The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a slight bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend in USDJPY. Immediate resistance is at 148.00, while support is seen around 147.00. A break below 147.00 could lead to further downside, with the next key support level at 146.50. --- Conclusion USDJPY is likely to experience a slight bearish bias today due to a combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, soft U.S. economic data, and a risk-on market sentiment that favors the Japanese yen. Traders should monitor key support levels and watch for any changes in U.S. economic conditions or global risk sentiment, as these factors will play a crucial role in determining the pair’s movement in the short term. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #USDBearishOutlook - #JPYstrength - #USDJPYtoday - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY breakdown deepens ahead of Dec BoJ meetingUSDJPY finished lower overnight at 149.56 (-0.11%) its lowest daily close in over six weeks. The rebound in the JPY is being supported by increased expectations of a 25bp rate hike at the BoJ’s Dec meeting following a strong rise last week in the Tokyo core rate of inflation (2.2% in November, up from 1.8% in October) and after BoJ Governor Ueda said over the weekend “we are closer to the next hike”. Providing USD/JPY remains below the 151/152 resistance zone, the risks are for a deeper decline towards 145.00, which may prove too conservative if the BOJ hikes rates and the Fed cut rates on December 19th.
Short
by IG_com
BOJ’s Ueda hints at rate hike, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.03, up 0.26% on the day. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hinting about a rate hike and gave what was perhaps his strongest hint on Friday. In a newspaper interview, Ueda said that interest rate hikes are “nearing in the sense that economic data are on track”. Ueda also added that the BoJ has a “big question mark” over the outlook for US economic policy, with Donald Trump taking office next month. Ueda reiterated that the central bank wants to see a sustainable rise by inflation to the 2% target and expressed concern about the weak yen, warning the BoJ could respond with “countermeasures”. The BoJ makes its next rate announcement on Dec.19. Will it raise rates at that meeting or wait until January? The BoJ has done a poor job of communicating its intentions and after the surprise BoJ rate hike in August triggered turmoil in the financial markets. Ueda’s comments may have been an attempt to show greater transparency, although he failed to mention a timeline for the next rate hike. The markets have fully priced in a rate hike by January, with the probability of a December hike at around 60%. In the US, it’s a busy data calendar, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released later today, with a market estimate of 47.5 for November, compared to 46.5 in October. Manufacturing has been in a prolonged recession, with only one month of growth over the past two years. USD/JPY tested resistance at 150.30 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 151.13 There is support at 148.89 and 148.06
by OANDA
USDJPY Testing Key Levels: Potential for Downside MoveHello, FX:USDJPY has faced a price rejection at the 1W Pivot Point, leading to a downside move as highlighted in the previous analysis. Currently, the pair is testing the 1M Pivot Point, which could act as resistance. If this level sees a rejection, the price may move toward 140.053, with 146.031 serving as a strong support zone. While buyers are stepping in aggressively at this stage, their actions may be premature given the current market conditions. A clearer decision can be made once the 1M Pivot Point has been thoroughly tested. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
Trade Recaps: GBPJPY-SHORT, EURUSD-SHORT, 28/11/2024GJ Bias Analysis: The bearish pro-trend was clear with price trading lower from a premium. After printing the weekly low and beginning to correct higher, price mitigated the 50% equilibrium during New York Killzone where I waited for further confirmation by way of a LTF TBL sweep before executing a short position. EU Bias Analysis: The 4H had established a counter trend as price pulled back into the 1D OB and while short entries were not in line with the bullish range, IPDA was clear. Liquidity was being generated to the upside as price corrected and after a TBL sweep to the upside during New York killzone, a short entry was executed. Grade: - UJ: High Risk - EU: Low Risk
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader