JPYUSD trade ideas
USD/JPY – Bearish Opportunity DevelopingThe pair is currently showing signs of potential reversal after a sharp bullish retracement that reached a previously respected supply zone. Price action is reacting to a key area where sellers have shown strength in the past, suggesting that this upward move could be a liquidity grab before a new leg down.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the RSI has entered overbought territory, signaling a possible momentum exhaustion. This aligns with a technical structure where the market has maintained a bearish bias despite the recent recovery rally.
The broader context still supports a downside continuation, especially considering the macro pressure from U.S. monetary policy divergence and the yen’s historical reaction to overextended bullish waves in this pair.
📊 We’re watching for signs of confirmation, such as bearish engulfing patterns or rejections with volume divergence, which could strengthen the bearish thesis in this region.
Patience and discipline remain key — we're not trading the noise, we're trading the reaction to structure.
USDJPY 1W forecast until September 2025A huge inverted Head&Shoulders has been started. Volatility chop-chop. Left shoulder is ready and the price is heading up to the base at 145.188
In the middle of June we will see a fast fall to print Head bottoming at 138.75
Before printing Right shoulder the price has to visit the base again in the beginning of August 2025
What will happen in September? I will keep posting and updating (if I see necessity) 1W chart here. For 1D weekly updates check 'Also on' in my Profile.
BOJ Hawkish Tone Fails to Lift YenThe Japanese yen fell past 143 per dollar on Tuesday, ending a three-day gain, despite BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinting at potential rate hikes if conditions improve. Ueda pointed to steady recovery and firm corporate performance. A stronger U.S. dollar also weighed down the yen, as markets shrugged off weak U.S. data and rising trade tensions. Trump's plan to double metal tariffs further pressured Japan’s steel sector. Investors await upcoming labor and spending data.
The key resistance is at $143.50 meanwhile the major support is located at $142.85.
Yen Rises Amid Trump Tariff Threat and China DisputeThe Japanese yen rose to around 143.5 per dollar on Monday, marking its third straight session of gains as rising global trade tensions lifted demand for safe-haven currencies. The move followed President Trump’s threat on Friday to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% starting June 4. Japanese steelmakers like JFE Holdings and Kobe Steel fell, while Nippon Steel was less affected after Trump praised its planned merger with U.S. Steel. Meanwhile, U.S.-China tensions grew as China denied Trump’s claim of breaching a recent Geneva trade agreement. On the domestic front, Japan’s Q1 capital spending beat expectations, with investment rising across both manufacturing and services, reflecting solid internal momentum.
The key resistance is at $143.50 meanwhile the major support is located at $143.00.
Risk, Rates, and Reversals: What’s Next for USD/JPY?CMCMARKETS:USDJPY FX:USDJPY USD/JPY rebounded slightly to 143.10 but remains under pressure after slipping from the 144.50 on BoJ-Fed divergence and rising geopolitical tensions. While the BoJ appears cautious about accelerating its balance sheet tapering beyond FY2026, it still signals further rate hikes amid persistent domestic inflation, offering the yen structural support.
Technically, price is reacting off the lower trendline TL2, aligned with the 142.30–142.40 significant support zone. This area has held multiple times in the past and may offer a bullish pullback toward the 143.80 or even 146.15 resistance zones. However, failure to break above these levels could expose USD/JPY to renewed downside toward the 140.89 demand base.
Short-term recovery depends on Friday’s NFP and risk sentiment around trade tensions. A break below 142.30 would invalidate the bullish rebound and open downside to support near 140.89.
Resistance : 143.87 , 146.14
Support : 142.36 , 140.89
Short I opened a short position yesterday at the price of 147.50.
Currently the price is 146.18. The price has dropped quite a bit but I think it still has a good short entry opportunity with a reasonable risk reward.
Reasons for short trade:
The price has reached the major support level around 149 on the 22nd April. Since then, the price has moved up to the fair value gap area between 149.2 and 148.2 (blue rectangular box), and also the order block.
That area is also the Fib 0786 area. I look at Fib 0.786 as the last line of defence and it is usually a hard line to break.
The price hit the area and started to move to the downside. Momentum indicators are still in the bull territory but the lines have crossed and clearly moving to the downside.
My macro bias for USD is bearish and the current price set up support my bias. The risk reward is good enough for me to enter.
My trade set up:
Entry: 147.51Stop: 148.95Target: 142.478 (Fib 0.236)
Risk:Reward= 1:3.5
Currently the price is 146.17. It just broked below Fib 0.618. Entry now can give you 1:1.5 risk reward.
A rebound is inevitable. Execute!During the European session, the USD/JPY price trended lower overall, with prices gradually declining from higher levels, indicating that bearish forces remained dominant. The pair started its downward movement from near 144.049 and continued to move lower. Notably, the USD/JPY exchange rate faced resistance at the 146.00 psychological level and is currently moving toward the support zone at 142.35. If prices reach this area, buyers are expected to enter the market after setting clear risk parameters below the support level, preparing for a potential rebound toward the 148.00 resistance level. On the flip side, sellers will look for prices to break below this level to increase bearish bets, with a further downside target set at the 140.00 threshold.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
buy@142.20-142.50
TP:145.50-146.00
Monday thoughts and reports Our initial trade of the week was a success no drawback. The currency pair has created a new level and is now in a testing zone that I view as either a possible reversal or continuation of a downtrend validated by the 4 hour and daily timeframes. My points of interaction.
Sell: Open and close below 142.579
Buy: Reversal at 142.579
Even though these are the points I'm interested keep in mind it is early in the week and there is a chance for consolidation so beware of overtrading.
Monday June 2nd Reports: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
For May of 2025 it reported at about 48.7% which indicates a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Aprils was 49% So we are looking at a slower pace. The current prediction is 49.5%. This is the ninth consecutive month with the index below 50% which is below the neutral threshold of 50%.
New Orders decreased to 48.6% from 55.1%
Production: Slowed to 50.7% from 52.5%
Employment: Fell into contraction at 47.6% down from 50.3%
Prices: Accelerated to 62.4% the highest since June 2022, due to increased cost from tariffs
Supplier Deliveries: Slowed to 54.5% from 50.9%, indicating longer lead times
Inventories: Remained stable at 49.9%
Backlog of Orders: Contracted less at 46.8% compared to 44.9% (backlogs are still declining, but not as sharply)
The manufacturing sector is experiencing the initial operational impacts of the new administrations tariff policies, leading to increased prices and supply chain disruptions
How does this impact USD/JPY?
PMI below 50 signals economic weakness it signals contraction in the manufacturing sector.
This puts a cloud over the confidence in US economic strength and may lead traders to lower expectations for future fed rate hikes (or even expect cuts)
A lower PMI reduces investor confidence in US economy which cloud lead to a weaker dollar
This will result in a stronger yen (safe haven currency) against the us dollar
Pay attention to: Fed and BOJ monetary policy outlooks, geopolitical risk appetite, interest rate differentials, and upcoming US jobs data report
USD/JPY – Rejection at Resistance | Bullish Setup Brewing? The USD/JPY pair has just rejected from the 143.50 zone and is currently sitting around 142.89, showing signs of short-term weakness after a bullish attempt. However, the higher timeframe demand zone between 140.55 – 142.00 is holding strong 👀
🔍 Key Levels:
Demand Zone: 140.550 – 142.000 🟧
Mid-Range Resistance: 148.419 🔵
Major Supply Zone: 155.589 🔵
Current Price: 142.896 🔴
📊 Technical Breakdown:
Price bounced multiple times from the strong demand zone, forming a potential triple bottom.
If bulls defend this area again, we could see a push toward 148.41 and eventually a retest of the 155.58 supply zone 🔼
Momentum is gradually shifting – watch for a break above recent highs (~143.50) for confirmation of bullish continuation.
🧠 What to Watch:
Bullish confirmation above 143.50 = Long potential toward 148.41 and 155.58 🎯
Bearish breakdown below 140.55 = Caution! Opens downside risk 🚨
💬 Your Turn:
How are you trading USD/JPY this week?
Do you expect a breakout or another bounce from this demand zone?
📌 Drop your analysis or setups below! Let's trade smarter together.
#USDJPY #Forex #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #FXTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #LuxAlgo #4HChart #TradingView #JPY
Sunday Start Just a look into what my thoughts are to start this week.
Price points are 144.750 for a buy and 143.450 for a sell. I believe that between those two points will be a lot of consolidation and recommend waiting for an open and close above or beneath before entry.
This is just an idea based off my observations. I'll share ideas based off my indicators and economic reports Monday, Wednesday, and wrap up everything Friday. Saturday, you'll see ideas for next week.
decline🔹Bearish Targets:
▪️ 1st Target: 143.09(near-term support)
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If you find this analysis helpful in your trading journey, feel free to share your thoughts or questions in the comments. Let’s work together to maintain a disciplined, technical approach to the markets.
USDJPY Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 144.062.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 145.457 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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