Based on the lessons learned from our previous tradeReduced position sizing (maximum 1% risk)
Clear invalidation criteria (price closing above 145.500 on 4H)
JPYUSD trade ideas
Gross Analysis on USDJPYYou can follow us for more Analysis(Images and Videos) with Precise definition of the Financial Market.ENJOY!!!
Downtrend Awaiting ConfirmationUSDJPY has just made a technical rebound from the support zone at 142.22 up to the resistance area around 144.60 — a confluence with both the EMA 34 and EMA 89. However, based on the chart, this zone has previously acted as a reversal point, and price is now retesting that same level of rejection.
The current price action suggests a high likelihood of a small double-top pattern forming around 144.60. If selling pressure re-emerges here, the market could reverse and head back down toward 142.22, aligning with the developing downtrend.
Moody’s recent warning on U.S. credit rating has placed pressure on the USD, while the JPY continues to hold its safe-haven appeal amid market uncertainty.
Yen Reaches Highest Level in a MonthThe Japanese yen strengthened toward 142 per dollar on Tuesday, its highest in four weeks, driven by safe-haven inflows and weak dollar sentiment tied to Trump’s fiscal plan. Worries over a widening U.S. deficit weighed on the greenback, while speculation of a 25% iPhone tariff added to trade conflicts. Domestically, expectations for more BoJ tightening rose after core inflation surprised at 3.5%, a two-year high.
Resistance stands at 148.60, with further levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
Analysing the Volatility Spike on the USD/JPY ChartAnalysing the Volatility Spike on the USD/JPY Chart
The USD/JPY chart offers plenty of noteworthy insights for analysis:
→ A one-month low was recorded today (marked by the arrow);
→ This was followed by a sharp upward reversal, with a series of large bullish candlesticks forming on the intraday chart.
Why Is USD/JPY Moving Sharply Today?
The primary driver appears to be recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.
According to Trading Economics, this morning Ueda:
→ warned of rising core inflation risks linked to increasing food prices;
→ indicated that the Bank of Japan is prepared to adjust its monetary policy in order to achieve a stable inflation target.
Latest data show that Japan’s core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5% — the highest level in two years — reinforcing the case for further rate hikes. However, what's particularly striking is that despite Ueda’s hawkish tone, the yen is weakening.
Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart
Yen fluctuations formed a downward trajectory (marked in orange) in the second half of May, partly driven by US dollar weakness. Following a period of relative calm, the market has shifted into high gear — the ATR indicator is climbing sharply from multi-month lows, breaking through resistance at the 143.0 level.
This aggressive price action on the USD/JPY chart today suggests we may be witnessing an attempted bullish breakout from the channel. In light of this, it is possible that the surge in volatility reflects a fundamental shift in market sentiment — one that could potentially lead to the development of an upward trend.
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USDJPY | FVG + OB + Weak Low Target = Textbook SMC Setup📊 USDJPY | 1H Bearish Play – Smart Money In Control
We’re seeing a classic setup where price retraces into a bearish zone of confluence and prepares for a selloff toward internal liquidity. Check the breakdown:
🔻 1. Structure Shift Confirmed
Price broke structure on the downside after forming a lower high
Current move is a retracement into discount OB zone
Clear rejection is forming, signaling short momentum incoming
🟪 2. Zone Confluence
📌 Order Block (OB): Sitting just under the 61.8% Fib
📌 Fair Value Gap (FVG): Mitigated perfectly
📌 Fib Retracement: Price reacts between 61.8% and 70.5% — classic Smart Money play
📌 Previous Demand Turned Supply: This level is now acting as a rejection zone
This is stacked confluence — just how Smart Money likes to move.
💣 3. Entry Strategy
Entry Zone: 142.55 (midpoint of the OB reaction area)
Stop Loss: Above 143.443 (above OB + liquidity wick)
Take Profit: 139.888 (weak low, previous liquidity resting point)
⚖️ 4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR)
🎯 TP = 139.888
📍 Entry = 142.550
🔐 SL = 143.443
✅ RRR ≈ 1:3.5
A great example of high-probability short setup using pure Smart Money logic.
📉 5. Why This Works
Retail traders will try to long at this zone hoping for a breakout
Smart Money uses this zone to engineer liquidity
They tap into the FVG/OB, then target internal liquidity and weak lows
Clean, controlled sell-off expected down to 139.888
🧠 SMC Insights
This chart is all about liquidity engineering:
Push up into OB
Reject at premium pricing
Drive down to weak low to collect stops
Possibly reverse or continue trend from there
💬 Comment “FVG TAP + OB = 🔥” if you spotted this setup early
💾 Save it before the drop happens
📤 Share with a fellow SMC trader who needs this breakdown
Usdjpy I posted this signal yesterday and this is the outcome usdjpy have been pretty nice this few times
USDJPY The volatility we are seeing in the long-term bond market will spill over into the USDJPY ratio.
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Rise Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 142.31. a swing low support.
Our take profit is set at 142.71, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 141.65, below the 161.8% Fibo extension.
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Trump tariffs spark market jitters....again | FX ResearchAsian markets have shown mixed performance on this Monday. Treasury Secretary Bessant announced plans to relax the supplementary leverage ratio this summer, potentially lowering government borrowing costs by enabling banks to trade more treasuries, while dismissing concerns about rising US bond yields.
However, US fiscal challenges persist with deficits over 6% of GDP and a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio—historically stabilised only by high inflation or asset bubbles—raising doubts about sustainable debt reduction without fiscal reform. President Trump's recent moves, including a 50% tariff on European goods, a 25% levy on foreign smartphones, and the blocking of international students at Harvard, continue to fuel market uncertainty, amplified by US and UK market closures for public holidays.
Key US data this week includes the FOMC minutes, GDP estimates, and the core PCE price index.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
USDJPY going of erlUJ tapped weekly bearish fvg and is no going for the weekly erl. This also aligns with dxy which also tapped the weekly fvg. Expecting a tap in the 4h fvg in the ny session before taking the sellside liquidity and the erl.
USDJPY Demand Zone Consolidation. Wait for BRT Above or BelowIf CMP crosses above top zone and closes on 1H chart, take the Buy Retest.
If CMP crosses below the bottom zone and closes on the 1H chart, take the Sell Retest.
Go for 1:1 risk to reward MINIMUM. This strategy is 7-8 out of 10 (70-80%) but can produce upwards of 90% accuracy. Be patient. Be disciplined. Be consistent. 30 pips SL // 30 pips TP
*This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, do not over leverage. Risk only what you are willing to lose.*
If you are actively monitoring your trade, you can remove your TP once price goes into profit and start a trailing stop! At 10 pips, move your SL into profit at 2-3 pips to break even. If price goes to 20 pips in profit, set your SL at 10 pips of profit. You are more than welcome to accept the full SL (risk) and let the trade play out. SET IT AND FORGET IT. Take partials at structural pivot points (aka swing highs and swing lows) if you hold the winning trade longer than original TP!
Happy trading!
#HiddenWealthSociety
#HWS
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential, 10-Year Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 26–30, 2025)
Current 10-Year Bond Yields
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of May 21–22, 2025) .
Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.56% (as of May 23, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential (IRD)
The yield spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds is:4.54%(US)−1.56%(JPY)=+2.98%
4.54% (US)−1.56% (JPY)=+2.98%
This significant differential favors the US dollar, making USD/JPY attractive for carry trades.
Carry Trade Advantage
Investors borrow low-yielding JPY (at ~0.5% BoJ policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding USD assets, earning the ~2.98% yield spread as profit.
The strategy is supported by the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance compared to the BoJ’s cautious approach, despite Japan’s rising inflation (core CPI at 3.5% in April 2025) .
Bank of Japan Policy Signals:
Rising inflation and revised Leading Economic Index (108.1 for March 2025) may pressure the BoJ to tighten policy, narrowing the yield differential.
Market expectations for BoJ rate hikes could strengthen JPY, reducing carry trade appeal.
USD/JPY has fallen below 143.00 amid JPY strength , but oversold conditions suggest potential short-term corrections.
US-China trade tensions and tariffs may introduce volatility, affecting risk sentiment.
Summary Table
Metric United States (USD) Japan (JPY)
10-Year Bond Yield 4.54% 1.56%
Interest Rate Differential +2.98% (USD over JPY) —
Carry Trade Appeal Favorable for long USD/JPY —
Conclusion
The ~2.98% yield differential strongly supports USD/JPY carry trades, but traders should monitor:
BoJ policy shifts: Potential rate hikes could narrow the spread and weaken USD/JPY.
Fed rhetoric and US data: Hawkish signals may sustain USD strength, while dovish surprises could reduce the yield advantage.
Technical levels: A break below 142.00 could signal further JPY strength, eroding carry trade profits.
While the carry trade remains attractive, volatility from policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks requires careful risk management during this period..
#GOLD #FOREX #USDJPY#DOLLAR #YEN
I see red nine I buytd sequential buy setup about to complete full count, with perfect nine at the end. Look forward for 1-4 candle bounce. Full one lot plus stop at 142.5
Usdjpy Usdjpy after hitting tp didn't seecentry till today will buy Usdjpy a counter trade be4 I sell Usdjpy but I will be waiting 4 a reversal candle stick after the trade reach the 4h support zone
USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144
🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces
In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen.
The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets.
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish
Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services.
Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target.
This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat.
🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal
Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked.
Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety.
📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1
On the H1 chart:
Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low.
EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum.
Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+
However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations
Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred):
Entry: 142.70 – 142.90
Stop-Loss: 142.30
Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60
Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy:
Entry: 144.15
Stop-Loss: 143.70
Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD.
BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉
🔹 Timeframe: 30M
🔹 Methodology: Elliott Wave + AO + Structure Break + BBMA
⸻
🔍 Current Market Outlook:
I’m currently observing Wave 4 playing out as a complex correction. Price is pushing toward the key level 142.796, which I expect to break structure (BOS) to the upside.
Once that level is cleared, I’ll be watching closely for signs of an ABC corrective move to form — setting up a high-probability sell opportunity aligned with the final Wave 5 leg.
⸻
🧠 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ Wave Count:
• Wave 3 is confirmed by the strongest momentum on the AO
• Wave 4 is unfolding and approaching structure at 142.796
• AO shows decreasing bullish momentum, hinting at possible exhaustion
✅ Plan:
• Wait for break above 142.796
• Monitor for completion of ABC correction
• Enter short after C-leg confirmation
• TP at 1.618–1.786 Fib extension zone (141.818–141.614)
• Anticipating bullish divergence on AO by the end of Wave 5
⸻
📌 Confluence Checklist:
✔️ Wave theory
✔️ BOS expected
✔️ Fibonacci targets
✔️ AO divergence setting up
✔️ BBMA structure alignment
⸻
🎯 Strategy Summary:
Break 142.796 ➝ Spot ABC ➝ Enter short on C ➝ Ride Wave 5 ➝ TP @ extension zone
⸻
💬 Share your thoughts—Are you seeing the same potential Wave 5 setup? Let’s discuss.
👉 Follow me for clean structure-based analysis, BBMA setups, and advanced wave insights.
#USDJPY #ElliottWave #ForexSetup #WaveAnalysis #BBMA #AOindicator #MarketStructure #BreakOfStructure #SmartMoney #SellTheRally #Wave5 #ForexStrategy
USDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.469.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 142.516 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
JPY/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish Reversal in Play🔎 Technical Breakdown:
1. Rising Wedge Formation:
The pair has been trading within a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price makes higher highs and higher lows but with diminishing momentum. The wedge is visible from the swing low on May 13, where price began to climb aggressively but within increasingly narrow price action. This narrowing range signals weakening bullish strength.
2. Key Resistance Zone:
The wedge forms right below a Major Resistance Zone marked earlier in the chart (around 0.007050), where price had previously faced heavy selling pressure. This adds confluence to the bearish bias, as the zone historically acted as a turning point.
3. SR Interchange Zone:
Below the wedge lies a Support-turned-Resistance (SR) Interchange level, a critical price area where past support may now act as resistance if the price attempts to retrace. This is a commonly watched level by institutional and technical traders.
4. Breakdown Confirmation:
The price has broken below the wedge's lower trendline, which is often considered the breakdown signal. A valid breakdown typically includes a close outside the wedge body followed by a retest or continuation.
5. Bearish Target:
The projected move is toward 0.006796, derived by measuring the wedge height and applying it from the breakdown point. This level aligns with a historical support zone, adding more confluence to the target.
🧠 Psychological & Structural View:
Bullish exhaustion: Buyers pushed price higher into resistance, but momentum slowed, signaling exhaustion.
Trapped longs: Traders who entered late in the wedge may now be trapped, potentially accelerating a sell-off as they exit.
Smart money behavior: Rising wedges near resistance often signal distribution by smart money before a drop.
🛠️ Trading Plan Suggestion (Not Financial Advice):
Entry: After a clear wedge breakdown, consider short entries on a retest of the broken trendline or a bearish candle confirmation.
SL: Above the wedge high or major resistance zone.
TP: Staggered exits below 0.006850 and final target around 0.006796.
🔁 What to Watch For:
Retest of the wedge breakdown (potential short entry zone)
Momentum confirmation via volume or bearish candles
Price reaction at SR Interchange and final support target
🧠 Minds Section – Condensed Summary
JPY/USD formed a Rising Wedge below major resistance, signaling bullish exhaustion. Price has broken down from the wedge, confirming bearish momentum. A clean breakdown targets 0.006796, with SR interchange acting as a minor support. A retest of the wedge breakdown could offer a good short opportunity.
USDJPY – Bearish Channel Holds, Eyes on Support BreakUSDJPY is currently trading within a clearly defined bearish channel on the 3H timeframe, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. After a slight bounce from the 142.50 support zone, the price is now heading toward the 143.30 resistance area — which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This is a zone likely to face rejection and renewed selling pressure.
On the news front, Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over prolonged budget deficits, putting pressure on the USD. Although the interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ still favors the dollar, current market sentiment is making it harder for USDJPY to maintain a strong rally.
If the 143.30 resistance holds, the price is likely to be pushed back down to retest the 141.07 support zone — a previous low and the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed break below this level would signal further downside, with the next target below the 140.00 mark.
USDJPY Short Setup – Bearish Reversal AnticipatedI'm currently looking for short opportunities on USDJPY. Price action is showing signs of exhaustion near key resistance levels, and I expect a potential reversal in the coming sessions. I'm watching for confirmation via bearish candlestick patterns and possible breakdowns from support zones.
Entry - 142.740
Target area: 142.240
Stop-loss: 142.940
