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USD/JPY: Japan’s Snap Election Opportunities Japan is holding a snap election this Sunday, triggered by a scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), despite a general election not being due until late 2025. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for all but four of the last 65 years, has seen its popularity plummet. In June, its poll numbers hit their lowest point this century. While some polls predict the party could cling to its majority, bolstered by a fragmented opposition, fresh data from the Nikkei suggests a different outcome. The business daily warns that the LDP may fall short of securing a majority, a result that could lead to political upheaval not seen since 2009. Pullbacks in USD/JPY have been lessening since early October, and after clearing the 150.00 mark, the next targets for the bulls may be the 200-Day Moving Average and the range between 150.90 and 151.10. Amid a snap election, 152.00 is also a possible target. If the pair experiences another pullback, traders might consider a mid-point of current price action as a potential resistance level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Sellers Bruised As USDJPY Continues To Soar HigherOANDA:USDJPY Check my previous Idea on USDJPY and see if you can find something unique about trading alongside the traders best friend; the trend. I am not that experienced, no not with just 3 years in the system, but I keep asking myself and other traders one simple question... What will you do when a pair is buying? Sell the pullback and expect it to break through the last support of the trend? Wow, just wow. Cause when I went through the latest idea on USDJPY I saw traders making this same mistake of thinking the market is overbought, so it's time we start forcing it to respect our analysis. Here, I think those that know the trend and trade alongside it, "shall be strong and do exploit," just by adding it a little and simple confluence, which will determine the right spot for an entry, to avoid being taken out with the liquidity sweep. Because a wise man once said, "If you can't find the liquidity, then you're the liquidity." What's your thought on the solution to this mistake traders are making, that is eating up our portfolio?
by Samchi01
1
USD/JPY (READ DESCRIPTION) USD/JPY Pivot Point: 149.55 The pivot at 149.55 serves as a critical support level, signaling the potential for upward movement if the price holds above this point. Our Preference: Long Positions Recommended Trade: Long positions are favored as long as the price stays above 149.55, suggesting a potential for further upward movement. Target Levels for Upside Movement: First Target: 150.15 This level acts as an initial resistance point, where traders may evaluate profit-taking or further bullish potential. Second Target: 150.30 If the first resistance level is breached, USD/JPY could extend gains toward 150.30, indicating continued bullish momentum. Alternative Scenario: Downside Risks If the price drops below 149.55: Bearish Outlook: First Target: 149.35 Second Target: 149.10 These levels serve as potential support zones if a bearish reversal occurs. Technical Insights: RSI (Relative Strength Index): The break above 149.55 indicates a positive signal, with the RSI supporting further upside movement, reflecting increased buying interest. Support and Resistance Levels: As long as 149.55 holds as a key support level, the likelihood of continued bullish movement remains high. Momentum Indicators: The overall price action shows an upward trend, and momentum indicators such as MACD may confirm the potential for further gains.
by CharivapaAlgo
USDJPY moves sideways on positive conditionsAs the US presidential election is approaching, uncertainties will become the main focus of the market. Signs that former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the November election are increasing could contribute to the dollar's overall performance. can keep US interest rates high, thus increasing the appeal of the USD. In the short term, the Bank of Japan's policy statement on October 31 is a notable factor in the near term for USD/JPY and the Bank of Japan's clear attitude towards the adjustment should be observed. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY continues to move sideways but in terms of the overall picture, the possibility of price increases still prevails. The main uptrend is noted by the price channel with key support at EMA21, and as long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, it still has a technical upside prospect in the near term. On the other hand, once USD/JPY breaks the confluence of the upper channel edge along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level it will have room to continue rising with a target then around 151.866 in the short term, more than Fibonacci level 0.618%. The relative strength index is flat above 50 but has not yet reached the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead. The general assessment, trend and outlook of USD/JPY is technically bullish and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 149.364 – 148.823 – 148.113 Resistance: 150,739 – 151,866
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bearish Bias Amid Key Fundamental !Introduction On 21st October 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is showing signs of a slightly bearish bias due to evolving market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we break down the key drivers influencing the USDJPY forecast today and provide an analysis to help traders understand the potential for downside pressure on the pair. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook The US Federal Reserve's recent statements have signaled a more dovish stance, suggesting a potential slowdown or even a pause in its tightening cycle. Despite lingering inflationary concerns, recent US economic data has shown signs of weakening in critical sectors such as manufacturing and services. This has dampened expectations for further aggressive rate hikes, causing the US Dollar to lose momentum against the Japanese Yen. As traders reassess the likelihood of future rate hikes, the USD's appeal has diminished, supporting a bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan’s Yield Control Strategy The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period, but recent speculation suggests the central bank could adjust its yield curve control (YCC) policy. There are increasing expectations that the BoJ may begin allowing longer-term bond yields to rise, which could indirectly strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY). If the BoJ hints at policy adjustments in its upcoming meetings, this could fuel JPY bullishness, further pressuring USDJPY downward. 3. Weakening US Treasury Yields US Treasury yields have started to decline after reaching multi-year highs, reflecting market concerns about future US economic growth and the Fed’s dovish pivot. Lower yields reduce the attractiveness of US bonds for global investors, leading to a weaker USD. Since USDJPY often tracks the performance of US Treasury yields, this decline is a significant factor contributing to the pair’s bearish bias today. 4. Rising Geopolitical Risks Rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and concerns over global energy markets, have increased the demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. The JPY often benefits from such risk-off environments, as investors seek safety amidst heightened global uncertainty. As geopolitical tensions escalate, traders may increase their holdings in JPY, adding downward pressure on USDJPY. 5. US Economic Slowdown Recent US economic data has been mixed, with signs of slowing growth in areas such as retail sales, industrial production, and labor market indicators. A slowing US economy is weighing on the USD as investors become more cautious about the greenback’s prospects. The potential for reduced consumer spending and business investment dampens the outlook for the USDJPY pair, suggesting further downside risks. --- Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, USDJPY has been testing key resistance levels around 150.00, which has proven difficult to break decisively. If the pair fails to breach this psychological barrier, it may trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, signaling the potential for a reversal or correction in the coming sessions. --- Conclusion On 21st October 2024, the USDJPY pair appears to be leaning towards a slightly bearish bias, driven by a combination of a dovish Federal Reserve outlook, speculation of BoJ policy adjustments, weakening US Treasury yields, and rising geopolitical risks. As the market digests these factors, traders should remain cautious and consider downside opportunities in USDJPY, particularly if upcoming US economic data confirms a slowdown in growth. --- Keywords for SEO: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, USDJPY today, bearish bias USDJPY, Federal Reserve dovish, Bank of Japan policy, US Treasury yields, Japanese Yen strength, USDJPY key drivers, US economic slowdown, safe-haven assets, geopolitical risks, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY 21 October 2024.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bearish Bias Amid Key Fundamental !USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bearish Bias Amid Key Fundamental Drivers | 21 October 2024 Introduction On 21st October 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is showing signs of a slightly bearish bias due to evolving market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we break down the key drivers influencing the USDJPY forecast today and provide an analysis to help traders understand the potential for downside pressure on the pair. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook The US Federal Reserve's recent statements have signaled a more dovish stance, suggesting a potential slowdown or even a pause in its tightening cycle. Despite lingering inflationary concerns, recent US economic data has shown signs of weakening in critical sectors such as manufacturing and services. This has dampened expectations for further aggressive rate hikes, causing the US Dollar to lose momentum against the Japanese Yen. As traders reassess the likelihood of future rate hikes, the USD's appeal has diminished, supporting a bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan’s Yield Control Strategy The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period, but recent speculation suggests the central bank could adjust its yield curve control (YCC) policy. There are increasing expectations that the BoJ may begin allowing longer-term bond yields to rise, which could indirectly strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY). If the BoJ hints at policy adjustments in its upcoming meetings, this could fuel JPY bullishness, further pressuring USDJPY downward. 3. Weakening US Treasury Yields US Treasury yields have started to decline after reaching multi-year highs, reflecting market concerns about future US economic growth and the Fed’s dovish pivot. Lower yields reduce the attractiveness of US bonds for global investors, leading to a weaker USD. Since USDJPY often tracks the performance of US Treasury yields, this decline is a significant factor contributing to the pair’s bearish bias today. 4. Rising Geopolitical Risks Rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and concerns over global energy markets, have increased the demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. The JPY often benefits from such risk-off environments, as investors seek safety amidst heightened global uncertainty. As geopolitical tensions escalate, traders may increase their holdings in JPY, adding downward pressure on USDJPY. 5. US Economic Slowdown Recent US economic data has been mixed, with signs of slowing growth in areas such as retail sales, industrial production, and labor market indicators. A slowing US economy is weighing on the USD as investors become more cautious about the greenback’s prospects. The potential for reduced consumer spending and business investment dampens the outlook for the USDJPY pair, suggesting further downside risks. --- Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, USDJPY has been testing key resistance levels around 150.00, which has proven difficult to break decisively. If the pair fails to breach this psychological barrier, it may trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, signaling the potential for a reversal or correction in the coming sessions. --- Conclusion On 21st October 2024, the USDJPY pair appears to be leaning towards a slightly bearish bias, driven by a combination of a dovish Federal Reserve outlook, speculation of BoJ policy adjustments, weakening US Treasury yields, and rising geopolitical risks. As the market digests these factors, traders should remain cautious and consider downside opportunities in USDJPY, particularly if upcoming US economic data confirms a slowdown in growth. Keywords for SEO: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, USDJPY today, bearish bias USDJPY, Federal Reserve dovish, Bank of Japan policy, US Treasury yields, Japanese Yen strength, USDJPY key drivers, US economic slowdown, safe-haven assets, geopolitical risks, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY 21 October 2024.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG